Who Ya Got? Tylersalt's Week 6 Picks and "Expert" Analysis
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by Tylersalt
Last week, our intrepid hero did fairly well until the Packers screwed the pooch, depriving him of 13 big points in the Sunday night game. Hopefully he won't make that same mistake twice, although the 2nd and 3rd top picks are the night games once again. This week has some fantastic games (Pats and Cowboys), one or two okay games (Packers and Redskins, Jaguars and Texans), and the rest straight clunkers -- especially rough week with the perennial high-confidence point Colts and Steelers on byes. Let's see how things turn out, with 5 games whose lines opened at pick'em.
Last week: 11-3 (missed Kansas City, Carolina, and Chicago) So far this season: 46-29
HOME TEAMS IN CAPS (spreads included for reference -- picks are to win outright)
This has less to do with any sort of confidence that I have in the Ravens to do well, and more to do with the complete and total confidence I have in the Rams to stink to high heaven. Steven Jackson is out until week 10, and their quarterback is Gus "Headbutt" Frerotte. I don't feel like I have to say much more, but I will anyway. We learned last week that the Ravens offense is slightly less pathetic than San Fran's, but their defense is starting to come around after a rough few games. St. Louis can't move the ball either, so Ray Lewis and the Baltimore D should have a good game.
Patriots (-5 1/2) over COWBOYS
***GAME OF THE WEEK***
Duh. Like the GOTW could be anything else than what the media has unimaginatively dubbed "The Duel in Dallas." Frankly, I think I might be giving the Cowboys a little too much credit here. I was a believer before last week's trap game against Buffalo, but when your rookie kicker is the most ballsy member of your team, you lose some street cred in my book. If one of the worst teams in the AFC can give Big D such a scare, imagine what the Patriots can do. Randy Moss always goes off against Dallas, and Bill Belichick's defense always wreaks havoc on quarterbacks the first time they face it (as this will be for Tony Romo. This game won't be nearly as close as people think it might be.
Giants (-3 1/2) over FALCONS (MNF)
Two teams headed in completely opposite directions. Joey Harrington has regressed once again at quarterback for Atlanta, and from what we saw yesterday Byron Leftwich is not going to be any better. The Falcons can't run the ball, can't throw the ball, and their defense is no better than mediocre. On the other hand, the boys in blue are coming around after a very ugly first 2 1/2 games and have put together some nice football. Eli Manning is playing serviceably, Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward provide a nice 1-2 punch at RB, Plaxico Burress ain't talkin' 'bout practice but he's been a beast on the field and is probably the best fantasy receiver in the NFC, and the defense, led by Osi Umenyiora, is playing much better than before.
SEAHAWKS (-6 1/2) over Saints (SNF)
I am officially done with the 2007 New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees, he of the 1-9 TD-INT ratio this season, has singlehandedly murdered two of my fantasy teams (lucky I had my main man Jason Campbell for backup), nobody is accomplishing anything on either side of the ball, and the Saints are officially the biggest disappointment of the year. It's very sad, since I really like the Saints, but they're in for a long season. This Seahawks squad could also be in for a long year, but for an entirely different reason. Seattle can't figure out whether they're good or not. Last week they followed up a dominant defensive performance against San Francisco with a pathetic showing against Pittsburgh. Granted, there's a great deal of difference between these two teams, but the Seahawks have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and seem to be squandering it. They need to get it together, and the Saints might be just what the doctor ordered.
The AFC South, top to bottom, is unquestionably the best division in football. followed closely by the NFC East. The Jags are a top ten team and are only going to get better as Maurice Jones-Drew keeps getting revved up. The Texans are a team on the rise, but Matt Schaub and company are going to be hard-pressed to move the ball much against a stout Jaguars defense. Good news for Houston fans: Andre Johnson should be back next week for their game against the Titans.
Two surprising teams face off here, but I think the Titans defense will carry the day against a depleted Tampa offense, who just signed Zack Crockett to back up Earnest Graham at running back. Need I say more? Vince Young will continue to improve and do just enough to win while the Titans defense will be very tough.
Frankly, both of these teams suck. The Jets won't win again until Chad Pennington is no longer behind center, and everyone would be talking about the Eagles this season if the Saints weren't so spectacularly bad. Donovan McNabb, one of my favorite players in the league (Orangemen represent!), apparently can only play well against Detroit. However, Philly is coming off a bye and Brian Westbrook seems to be healthy again, so the Eagles should win this game and take eastern Pennsylvania's mind off of their long lost Phillies.
CARDINALS (-4 1/2) over Panthers
Hey, it's the turn of the century all over again! Kurt Warner has a starting job, and Vinny Testaverde is relevant! How about that? Two teams who have lost their starting quarterbacks (Matt Leinart and Jake Delhomme) for the year square off here, and I'm going with the Cardinals for two reasons. One, their defense is a top-10 defense so far this season. Two, either David Carr or the aforementioned Vinny Testaverde will be starting at quarterback for the already maddeningly inconsistent Panthers.
Two things don't bode well for the Packers in this one. First, the Redskins offense is starting to hit its stride, despite injuries to key wide receivers (Santana Moss is back now, but Antwaan Randle El will be out). Second, the Washington secondary, boasting four former first round picks (LaRon Landry, Sean Taylor, Carlos Rogers, and Shawn Springs), is very, very good -- big trouble for the ageless Brett Favre and the pass-heavy Pack. This could actually be a low scoring affair, and the difference could be the Washington running game behind Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts.
I don't like the Bears this year, but I like the Vikings even worse. I don't have a whole lot else to say about this game, except that the Bears should probably play Kyle Orton at quarterback. Why the hell not? Oh, and in this battle of Adrian Petersons, expect the one in purple to win.
Umm... I'll take the over.
BROWNS (- 4 1/2) over Dolphins
What a pathetic game. When the most compelling story lines involve the phrases "The Browns aren't as bad as we thought they were," and "Trent Green might not retire after suffering two fantastically awful concussions in a year," you know there isn't a whole lot going on on the field. Oh, except for Cleo Lemon.
Raiders (+ 9 1/2) over CHARGERS
***UPSET SPECIAL***
Ok, ok, ok. Yeah, I saw the Chargers beat up on the Broncos last week, same as you. This could end up being a stupid pick. But I think the Raiders defense is actually pretty good. If they can limit Antonio Gates and LaDanian Tomlinson as much as possible, then they have at least a fighting chance with Daunte Culpepper at quarterback. Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part, since I'm being forced to start Culpepper in like, three fantasy leagues this week. The fact is, I just don't trust this Chargers team yet, and this is a pretty bad division. Someone's got to win it, but I'll be damned if I could pick who at this point. None of these four teams look like post-season material right now.
BONUS PICK: University of Virginia defeats the soon-to-be-previously-undefeated University of Connecticut at homecoming tomorrow! WAHOOWA!
BYES: Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills
