The NFL Guru's Week 5 Preview & Season Overview
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After a quarter of the season the NFL is very intriguing. On one end it feels like the mid-90s. The Cowboys are undefeated, Brett Favre is a magician, no one knows who will win the AFC West, and O.J. and the law are at war. However, an even stronger theme is one of shock and awe:
- The Derek Anderson Browns have scored 51 points in a game
- The top rushers last year: Tomlinson, Johnson, Jackson, Gore, are all struggling
- Michael Vick went from Atlanta's top dog to doing PETA commercials
- Lovie actually stopped saying "Rex is our quarterback"
- They're still kicking to Devin Hester
- Five full-time starters have a completion percentage above 70%
- One of those quarterbacks is Joey Harrington
- The "model franchise in sports" is led by a cheater
- The league leader in sacks coming into week 4 had 5 sacks, and then Osi got 6
- Brett Favre has as many picks as Tom Brady
- The best rushing attack in the league is in Oakland
Despite the confusion the big picture of who gets to the Super Bowl is pretty easy, as there is really one question in each conference which will decide who goes to Phoenix. In the AFC, it comes down to whether New England is still afraid of the Colts, which they were last year in the regular season for the first time in the Belichick era. Then the playoff game came and as soon as the Colts were remotely back in it the Patriots folded like beach chairs. If New England beats the Colts in a few weeks, they will go in search of another ring. In the NFC, it simply comes down to whether the Packers develop a running game. If someone gives them 85 yards a game Favre will get a chance to go out like Elway. If not, there's a sleeper in Seattle.
The NFL Guru has been sharp so far this year. You'll have to take my word for the first quarter since I haven't written an article in over a year, but I did have Arizona and Kansas City last week (my wallet could be used as evidence). Last week was full of upsets because there were many home underdogs, and that guarantees many upsets. This week things are more balanced, so don't expect a huge shakeup this week. They say you have to put your money where your mouth is, so here we go.
Matchups marked with a * mean that they are the best plays this week from the standpoint of the spreads for these games. They do not imply that the team(s) used steroids.
Dolphins @ Texans (-5)
The Texans have proven their pass attack is lethal, with or without Andre Johnson. Matt Schaub has been better than advertised. The defense has been aggressive, which has served them well at times but gotten them into some trouble other times. Their weakness defensively is in the passing game. The Dolphins have played well on offense when they've played pushover defenses and poor against solid competition. The Chiefs clearly knew Trent Green was over the hill, and the Dolphins clearly didn't know Dante's knee was O.K. Defensively the once heralded unit is battered, and an already weak defense has tailed even worse since the injury to Zach Thomas. They can't stop anyone from doing what they do best. The secondary has been getting beat all year long against good passing attacks and this week shouldn't be any different. Romo torched them in week 2 and Chad Pennington and the Jets had run up the score through 3 quarters. And they gave up over 170 yards to Justin Fargas. The Texans overall defense is week to week but they should get enough pressure on Green to keep the Dolphins at bay.
The Pick: Texans to win & cover
Falcons @ Titans (-8)
I'm still not sold on the resurgence of Joey Harrington Act III. The last 2 weeks have been the best in his career, but against Carolina and Houston. The running game is inconsistent. Almost as inconsistent as their defense. At times they look stout, both against the run and pass. Other times DeShaun Foster is running all over them and Adrian Peterson is taking screen passes to the house. Andre Davis looked like Andre Johnson last week against them. However, if Joey Harrington didn't turn the ball over against the Vikings and the Falcons signed Morton Anderson a week earlier the Falcons could be 3-1 instead of 1-3. With the injury to Cadillac Williams in Tampa the Falcons can get right back in the race with an upset here. If Harrington comes up big again we'll know he's legit, because the Titans defense is a scrappy bunch and very opportunistic. Also, they can be ferocious at times against the run, so Harrington will have to win this game for Atlanta. Tennessee has taken the personality of their coach Jeff Fisher and their quarterback Vince Young. It ain't pretty but they know how to win. The Titans on paper should be at the bottom of the league but find a way to win and nearly beat the Colts. They've been like this since Young took over last year and that's not an accident. If he had anyone to throw to this team could be a real sleeper in the AFC. For now, they will be in another grind it out game where they will have to get the running game going. They should get enough of it to pull out another win.
"The Pick: Titans win but Falcons cover"
* Jaguars (-2) @ Chiefs
The Jaguars may have changed who takes the snaps, but nothing else has changed. They have a solid defense and can barely score on offense. When they can't run the ball the wheels fall off. Also, teams have discovered you can run the ball on their defense up the middle with good execution. Their best game was against the Broncos, where the Broncos porous rush defense allow Jacksonville to control the clock for the entire game. The Chiefs will allow rushing yards but they have a good enough defense to compete in this one. Huard hasn't been outstanding but hasn't thrown the game away either. Larry Johnson has struggled but finally showed signs of being himself last week, getting 123 yards. He should go off for a similar performance this week. Also, the Chiefs finally have a threat at receiver in Dwayne Bowe, an early candidate for offensive rookie of the year. The Chiefs have a strong secondary led by Ty Law, and a front 4 that can get pressure on the quarterback. Arrowhead has always been a tough place for opposing teams to play in, and the Chiefs are more than good enough to quiet the Jaguars. It won't be much of a game to watch, but Herm Edwards team will play and win the game.
The Pick: Chiefs in a "upset"
Jets @ Giants (-3.5)
I knew my Jets would be sorry on defense this year, but not this bad. Tom Brady threw for a hair under 300 yards. That was one thing. Trent Green went for over 300. That was another thing. Then there was last week. After a shaky preseason and in his first NFL start, Trent Edwards looked like the next coming of Jim Kelly as he went through the Jets defense. The Jets rushing defense hasn't exactly been tough either. The Patriots ran at will, the Dolphins had their best game on the ground this year against the Jets, and even the Bills got into a rhythm. The defense has a lack of skill in some areas, but a lot of the blame goes on the play calling. Last week was a great example. There is a rookie quarterback and a rookie runningback and the Jets refused to blitz. On offense the Jets are very limited. Thomas Jones has struggled in New York and there are 2 good reasons for that. First, the offensive line isn't getting much of a push off the ball, Second, opposing defenses are cramming the line of scrimmage since there's no threat of the deep ball. Chad Pennington is an accurate, consistent quarterback but is severely limiting the Jets offensive ability. With what the Jets have on offense they need to take advantage of their receiving weapons and go more vertical but cannot because of hanging Chad's weak arm. I used to be the biggest Pennington fan and I'm aware he is completing over 70% of his passes but the Jets cannot win with him at quarterback. The future and the present needs to be Kellen Clemens for the Jets to have any promise in the near future. The Bills have an awful secondary and the Jets couldn't exploit it. If Clemens started he would've made some mistakes but the Jets would've won. The Giants looked like they were going to throw Tom Coughlin out the front door after 2 1/2 games but rallied against the Redskins and have learned how to play great defense since. The aggressive blitzing is making up for a suspect secondary. Eli Manning needs to almost tear his shoulder off more often, because he has been rock solid since the injury. Plaxico Burress can't practice and is still dropping catches but is making enough plays down the field. And former Jet Derrick Ward is finally getting a chance in this league and proving he belongs. He had a lot of talent when he came into the league with the Jets but was buried on their depth chart. With the Jets struggling up front on both sides of the ball the Giants should be able to do whatever they want from start to finish. Expect a lot of yards for Ward in the first half and the Giants to open up the pass in the 2nd half using play action.
The Pick: Giants in a rout
Panthers @ Saints (-3)
The Panthers defense has been giving up yards to all comers. They might be the biggest disappointment in the NFL when you look at all the talent on that squad. Then Jake Delhomme goes down and David Carr enters the picture. I personally believed Carr might be better then everyone thought since he was a sitting duck in Houston. However, he had another David Carr game last week against the Bucs. He was 9 of 24 at one point in the game for around 70 yards. He was also sacked as many times as he was accustomed to getting sacked with the Texans. He might be mobile, but he's clearly the next Drew Bledsoe when it comes to sacks. On top of that, teams are finally shutting Steve Smith down, since there are no other weapons in the receiving game to worry about. No one else for the Panthers is creating any separation at the line of scrimmage. They were hoping Dwayne Jarrett would eventually surface as the other playmaker in the passing game but he is looking more like Mike Williams by the day. DeShaun Foster has been a bright spot for them but he is very inconsistent as he can get a bunch of yards last week and then dance around for negative plays for the next month. The Saints, well, have reverted back to the Saints. They've been blown out in every game this year and look terrible all around. On defense, the secondary is laughable. Jason David was supposed to be the big addition to the secondary but instead of helping to stop the big play he's handing them out like a Jehovah's Witness handing out pamphlets. What makes this even worse is the fact that on the other side of him is corner Mike McKenzie, who is one of the league best cover corners. Teams are wisely shying away from him and torching David. The run defense has been just as bad, giving up big runs in every game. The other team has dominated the time of possession against the Saints. On offense, Drew Brees looks like a man hurried and pressured. Without McAllister the Saints lost any balance they hoped to have, as Reggie Bush continues to struggle as a runningback in this league. Marques Colston and Devery Henderson are nice receivers, but were never truly #1 and #2 receivers in this league. Any chance the Saints had of rebounding this season ended with the loss of Deuce. The playcalling has been another huge problem as Sean Payton has over-thought himself all season long. A great example was the 4th & 1 in the Tennessee game where he decided to throw a long bomb instead of running Deuce. Another example all year long is how Deuce would be running stretch plays and Bush running up the middle often during games. As for this showdown, the Saints are due for a good game on offense and showed some signs of life offensively against the Titans. They've played one of the toughest schedules in the league, with the Colts, Bucs, and Titans, and McKenzie is a good enough corner to contain Steve Smith with a double team. No one else has shown up for the Panther so far in the receiving game so far and the Saints have the ability to be a decent run defense. Payton had 2 weeks to prepare and I'm sure he will make sure David Carr sees plenty of blitzes. The Saints will be the "Aint's" but not this week.
The Pick: Saints win & cover
* Cardinals (-3.5) @ Rams
The Cardinals are for real. They look like the Steelers right now in how they play. On defense they are aggressive and making big plays. They are stuffing the run and safety Adrian Wilson has been used in the Troy Polamalu role, and he's a better safety all around then Polamalu. The front 4 was a beast a year ago and has improved this year. They are terrific at getting a push off the snap and breaking through protection. On offense, the Cardinals are winning with 2 quarterbacks, which isn't supposed to happen. This won't be the case for much longer. Matt Leinart has looked lost for most of the year under center as he needs reps to get in a rhythm and the Cardinals are now a run-first team. He is trying to learn a completely different system from Denny Green's offense last year, which he was just starting to get familiar with at the end of last year. He needs to be benched so he can learn the nuances of this new offense. After the last game Leinart went DMX and said coach Ken Whisenhunt needs to "ride or die" with him. Eventually Kurt Warner, who has played very well in relief against 2 solid secondaries in the Ravens and Steelers, will be the full time guy. Russ Grimm has successfully implemented his blocking schemes to the offensive line and they are now pushing off the ball well and protecting the quarterback. When Warner has protection he is still one of the league's best, and with Boldin and Fitzgerald at wideout he has weapons to throw to. Edgerrin James is also enjoying the new system and is starting to look like the Edge we saw in Indianapolis. The Rams, who many had as a sleeper team this year, are already finished. Stephen Jackson is hurt and now Bulger will finally take a couple weeks off. With no running game Torry Holt is having his worst year as a starter. Isaac Bruce suddenly looks old and it appears the Titans knew what they were doing when they let Drew Bennett go. The offensive line might be the worst in the league since losing Orlando Pace and now 2 other starters. The defense plays hard but has been on the field for too long. The secondary is starting to break down. Soon the rest will follow. In this game it doesn't matter who plays at quarterback for the Cardinals. Leinart could play the whole game and the Cardinals will still be O.K. In this one, expect James to have his best game as a Cardinal so far.
The Pick: Cardinals win & cover
Browns @ Patriots (-16.5)
The Browns were supposed to be the worst team in all of football. The defense, on paper, had a linebacker, a guy named Bodden at secondary, and that was it. On offense they were supposed to struggle with a weak offensive line, a washed up runningback, and the grooming of the most overrated quarterback to come into the draft since Ryan Leaf. Right now, they're at .500, and if Raiders coach Lane Kiffin didn't learn from his experiences the Browns would be 3-1. Since Derek Anderson has come in at quarterback they have been a completely different team. He is throwing the ball all over the place like he's back in college, and he has some weapons. Braylon Edwards has been one of the league's most dynamic receivers when he's healthy, and Kellen Winslow Jr. has averaged more catches per game at tight end then anyone else in NFL history. Jamal Lewis started out slow but has shown signs of the old Jamal Lewis. The defense plays hard, and is having some success against the run. The secondary has Leigh Bodden, the most underrated corner in the league, and that's about it. The Patriots were caught red handed and haven't looked back. Tom Brady has weapons now and Randy Moss is well rested after taking a couple years off in Oakland. Wes Welker is an excellent 2nd receiver and complements Moss perfectly in this offense. Lawrence Maroney is still getting it done and Sammy Morris is punching it in and finishing drives well. And if he has to start, he can get over 100. The defense has played well all-around, which is surprising to me. The secondary, especially the corners, has been a weak point for a couple of years but held their own against a potent Bengals offense. No one has been able to run on them yet and that shouldn't change this week. The Pats offense looks like a well-oiled machine, but after Sunday they will have still not played one good secondary all year. The Pats should torch the Browns here. If Derek Anderson or Jamal Lewis somehow keep this game close, the Indians may not be the only Cinderella story brewing in Cleveland this fall. The Pick: Patriots win & cover
Seahawks @ Steelers (-6)
Seattle appears to be returning to the team that made the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Matt Hasselbeck looks sharp and his receivers aren't dropping the ball that much anymore. Bobby Engram has played well, Deion Branch is starting to get into a rhythm with Hasselbeck, and Nate Burleson has been a pleasant surprise. Shaun Alexander hasn't been as great as he could be but has been good enough. He should be back to form once his wrist heals. The offensive line remains solid. On defense they look like the team 2 years ago. Lofa Tatupu is playing great football and the secondary is holding its own. How much the defense improves will go along way toward determining when this team ends up. The Steelers were supposed to open up the passing game a little more this year and have shown more of a vertical passing game but continue to make their bread and butter with the running game. Willie Parker continues to quiet the critics and Big Ben is doing just enough to get by. Santonio Holmes is emerging as a game-breaker but whether he can keep it up is something to watch for. On defense they are as good as advertised in all facets of the game. They are disciplined and balanced and attack the ball well. They finally played a defense last week and suddenly didn't have things go their way. They only scored 2 TDs on offense and one of those was on a busted coverage on 3rd and 26. The Seahawks have proven this year they can muster up points against good defenses in games against the Bucs and Cardinals. I am high on Seattle this year and don't feel the Steelers are in the same class as New England and Indianapolis. The Steelers need to come back to earth, and this will be another tough game. Big Ben is still making some miscalculated risks which are leading to big turnovers. Hasselbeck has not made these mistakes so far. Hines Ward is out again which will make it a hard day for the Steelers offense to move the ball as they lose their balance without their possession receiver. This is the game to watch this week. The Seahawks will be back in the national spotlight after this game.
The Pick: Seahawks in an "upset"
* Lions @ Redskins (-3.5)
This year the Detroit Lions are the new "greatest show on turf". Jon Kitna threw for over 4000 yards and now gets to play in a Mike Martz offense. He will easily reach 5,000 yards passing this year if he stays healthy. The Lions passing game is explosive. Roy Williams gets it done each and every week, even if his predictions often fall short. Calvin Johnson is an intriguing talent but there is no pressure on him right now to deliver. That is because of the emergence of former Rams receiver Shaun McDonald, who is feating off of mismatches in every game. He could be the most improved player in the league this year from a numbers standpoint. The running game is another story. Kevin Jones is now healthy and is still chasing another year like his rookie year. In a Mike Martz offense, I wouldn't count on it. The offensive line is another issue. Kitna is getting tons of yards but also a ton of sacks. He won't make it through the year at this rate and we've seen what J.T. O'Sullivan is capable of, so the Lions better fix that line up. On defense, the Lions are supposed to be good against the run and haven't done a bad job so far. However, they've only played one established runningback this year, and Brian Westbrook ran all over them. The secondary is awful. They are giving up big yards every week and will continue to do so as team have to throw to get back in games. The entire year for the Lions will come down to their run defense. If that goes opponents will be able to keep their potent offense off the field. The Redskins have played close, grind-it-out games and in reality should still be undefeated if not for some questionable playcalling. Jason Campbell has looked great at times this year and looks calm and composed in the pocket. Clinton Portis will get his yards. Chris Cooley will get his yards. It's the wide receivers that need to step up, and for the most part they aren't doing so. This is why the Redskins have signed Keenan McCardell to try and help boost the passing game. The only receiver showing any promise of helping Santana Moss is Antwaan Randle El, who has made some impressive plays this year. If he can continue to improve the Redskins offense should pick up. On defense, you know what you're getting: smash mouth football. Just about everyone on that defense can put a good lick on you if you're not careful. They have corners who are good enough to hang with most receiving duos in this league. The front 7 is solid but not immovable. In this game we will find out just how good the Lions are. Some people feel they're a 10 win team. I think they're more like last year's Cincinnati Bengals. This year the Lions have played 2 good defenses. They barely beat the Vikings and then lost in a beat-down to Philly, who has a solid defense when everyone is healthy. The last 2 games have shown how bad the Lions secondary is. The Eagles receivers have failed to get any separation against anyone else this year and torched the Lions. Brian Griese made Bears fans wish they kept their mouths shut and has the Bears looking at the real option at quarterback in Kyle Orton, but still threw for big yards against the Lions. If Griese didn't make bad decisions in the red zone the Lions would be 2-2. The Redskins are the best defense they've played this year. To me the recipe for Detroit is simple: when they face bad defenses they outscore you, and when they can be stopped they're screwed. This game falls in the 2nd category.
The Pick: Redskins win & cover
Bucs @ Colts (-11)
The Bucs were rolling until the Cadillac was knocked out of commission in one of the nastiest injuries in NFL history. The offense was actually good, with Garcia leading the helm and finding enough plays through the air to win games while not throwing a pick. Cadillac was the balancing act and the Bucs needed him to stay healthy to have a chance of making a big run in the playoffs this year. On defense the Bucs have returned to their stingy selfs and will need to stay that way to hold on to the NFC South crown. The Colts are rolling at the moment, as Peyton Manning continues to boost his hall of fame numbers. As if they didn't have enough weapons, Dallas Clark has emerged as a real threat this year and is overshadowing the receivers at certain points during the games. Joseph Addai is not suffering the sophomore jinx at the moment and looks terrific. The offensive line hasn't missed a beat since losing Tarik Glenn, as Tony Ugoh has come right out of college and is getting the job done. Defensively the defense has started out as the best by far in the Tony Dungy era. They have fixed their biggest weakness in the secondary and are making enough plays against the run to hold on to leads. However, injuries are killing the defense, as Rob Morris is gone for the year already and another linebacker has gone down with an injury. Bob Sanders is a great safety but is hurt again. These injuries will make the Colts very susceptible to giving up big runs, and we saw some of that surface last week against Broncos runningback Selvin Young, who will become a familiar name by year's end. On top of that Marvin Harrison likely won't play and Joseph Addai is hurt and may not go either (even though I think Addai is good enough to play). If Cadillac were still around the Bucs would have a great shot of pulling off the 2nd largest upset by the spread all season (the Chiefs were 13 point underdogs last week). While Earnest Graham and Michael Pittman played well in mop-up duty against Carolina last week they will not be that productive over the course of the rest of the year. This will be a tough game for the Colts, but ultimately they should prevail in the RCA Dome.
The Play: Colts win but Bucs cover
Chargers @ Broncos [pk]
The Chargers fans can thank General Manager A.J. Smith for their collapse. He made a terrible business decision and his team will be suffering the repercussions until he is fired. You do not fire someone who gets your team 14 wins during the regular season because you and him can't go out to lunch together. Furthermore, if you do fire this person, you better bring in someone with a better track record or at least a promising new coach. Instead, A.J. Smith brings in whipping boy Norv Turner, who has proven to be a mediocre head coach in the NFL but continues to be hired. He continues to profit off of the work of Troy Aikman. Only Turner could turn the best runningback in the NFL since Barry Sanders into a bum. The playcalling stinks and the team morale is awful. Phillip Rivers looks terrible, the offensive line stops fighting by halftime, and despite the fact that Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson are getting open they're not getting the ball. On defense the Chargers have been anything but lights out. The secondary, which played surprisingly well last year has returned to its old form and is giving up huge plays again. The run defense has also diminished as the Chargers are not playing with the same fire and aggressiveness that made them so great last year. The big talking Chargers have turned soft, a clear reflection of their coach. The Broncos have their own issues. Jay Cutler clearly will be a Bronco for years to come but still makes critical mistakes by trying to force things. Travis Henry was the leagues leading rusher until he pulled a Ricky Williams, and now he's likely out for the rest of the season in light of the Roger Goodell era. This leaves rookie Selvin Young as the tailback, and he has looked right at home in limited action so far. He is averaging 9.2 yards a carry, tops in the NFL. The Broncos also have some receivers post-Rod Smith in Javon Walker and Brandon Marshall, who is an emerging star in this league. The offensive line is opening up running lanes as usual but needs to shore up the pass protection so that Cutler can just calm down. On defense, the Broncos are built to stop the pass with a great secondary, anchored by Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. They also have great pass rushers on the front 4. However, in building this "stop Brady & Manning defense" they forgot about the running game. The Broncos are giving up huge yards against the run and are doing it consistently. They have given up over 700 rushing yards this year, and have been dominated up front in their last 2 games. When a team continues to struggle in something it tends to keep going. LT rushed for over 120 yards in the first half against the Chiefs. The "offensive genius" Norv Turner rewarded him with 6 carries in the 2nd half. I am hoping that the press and criticism successfully bashed the run into Norv's head. If the Chargers run the ball all game long, they will win this game, as LT will go for over 150 easily. The Broncos corners have not played up to par this year, as Champ Bailey is looking a step slow. The Chargers know if they lose this game they're finished. I think they finally get a win. Does this mean they'll make the playoffs....no.
The Play: Chargers win and thus cover in what I feel is the biggest upset this week
Ravens (-3.5) @ 49ers
The Ravens look overrated. Steve McNair can still get it done but isn't healthy. Kyle Boller is coming out of the bullpen and also hasn't looked bad. Derrick Mason has been terrific at receiver this year. They have Willis McGahee but can't get him going. The offensive line has not been what it used to be, and the absence of Jonathan Ogden is obviously hurting them. On defense the Ravens just haven't quite been themselves. The pieces are all there but for some reason the Ravens look human. When teams are committed to throwing on the Ravens they are finding a ton of success. What is also puzzling is that the Ravens aren't getting a lot of pressure in obvious passing situations for the opposition. In the game against the Bengals, the Bengals had success through the air early, then got it done late in the game. The Ravens truly should've won that game. In the next 2 weeks, the Ravens took good sized 4th quarter leads. The Jets, with an inexperienced quarterback who had played poorly in the first 3 quarters, essentially threw their way back into the game and had 3 tying touchdowns botched, with a short throw by Clemens and 2 drops by Justin McCareins. The next week the Cardinals with Kurt Warner leading the way completed the comeback, forcing the Ravens to come up with a win late. Then the Derek Anderson show continued its stellar home performance and jumped out on the Ravens early. The Ravens also haven't finished drives well at all. This is why they couldn't come back last week. The combo of bad pass coverage in solely passing situation and the inability to finish drives is a recipe for an 8-8 year. The 49ers are falling well short of expectations. Alex Smith is likely finished before he ever got started, leaving the season in the hands of Trent Dilfer. 49ers fans, better luck next year. Dilfer looked awful in the preseason and has looked worse so far in the regular season. Frank Gore is a great runningback but its hard to run on 9 and 10 guys. Opposing defenses have had no reason to worry about the passing game and that doesn't appear likely to change for the foreseeable future. On defense the 49ers are supposed to have a good secondary but got picked apart early by the Seahawks. They will be solid all year against teams without multiple receiving threats, but the Seahawks may have exposed them against teams that can spread them out. The running defense has been stout for most of the year, but wears down near the end of games because they're on the field so much. That also doesn't appear likely to change. This game is a snooze-job, with the Ravens possibly getting back on track.
The Pick: Ravens win & cover
* Bears @ Packers (-3)
The Bears are in disarray. The offense is in shambles. Rex Grossman ran out of good games and finally got benched. In comes the hero Brian Griese...or not. Griese at least put the Bears offense in position to score, but they were playing Detroit. He needs to manage the game for the Bears offense to be effective, because Griese is well past his prime (if he had one). If Griese were still a good quarterback, you would think Lovie Smith would have called his number a while ago. Speaking of busts, Cedric Benson is the starting runningback now, and his inability to get anything done finished Rex Grossman's starting career in Chicago. The Bears have some receiving threats with Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad, and Greg Olsen, but no one to get it to them. On defense, a once great defense is battered. A total of 7 starters are out right now, including the entire starting secondary. No defense can overcome so many injuries, and now teams are moving the ball fairly easily against the Bears. They can bend, but eventually this defense will continue to break unless the Bears offense can keep the other team off the field. Right now that doesn't look likely. The Packers are bound for the top seed in the NFC. They have a tough stretch during the following three weeks with Washington, Denver, and Kansas City. After that, the only team left on the schedule that poses a threat to them is the Cowboys. Brett Favre is still fitting the ball into tight spaces, but only his receivers are catching those passes right now. Favre has multiple weapons for the first time in years. Donald Driver is having another great season. Greg Jennings gives the Packers a deep threat and a dynamic weapon. This has opened up opportunities for the tight ends, especially Bubba Franks. James Jones as a 3rd receiver has a lot of promise. The offensive line is protecting him well. The only thing holding this team back right now is the running game. The Packers are worst in the NFL in rushing, and Vernand Morency couldn't have returned at a better time. I don't feel he is a great back but just might be able to give them enough production to get them over the top. Personally I think the Packers should be looking to acquire someone at the deadline to bring into the fold. On defense the Packers have a Super Bowl defense. The secondary is led by Al Harris, who is the best corner in the NFL right now. The front 7 is unreal. Aaron Kampman is a monster on the edge and can stop the run and get to the quarterback. KGB is a sack artist. Cullen Jenkins is a space eater and a run stopper inside. The linebackers are led by Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk, who could turn into one of the greatest linebacker duos of all time if they stay together long enough. All the pieces are there for a magical run, except a running back and a blocking scheme. As for this game, its Favre in the national spotlight, and that usually means a big game for him. For the Bears, the big story will be the likely return of Kyle Orton at some point in the 2nd half. How far the Bears are behind by then could determine whether he can make his own comeback and win the starting job for good. That probably won't happen. I don't see how the Bears put up points in this game.
The Pick: Packers win & cover
Cowboys (-10) @ Bills
The Cowboys are just blazing through everyone right now. Tony Romo is the perfect quarterback for that team for years to come. He has the charisma and savvy to make it in Dallas. He also has playmaking ability that can't be taught. Jason Garrett has shined as an offensive coordinator and is directing an aerial attack of epic proportions. T.O. is running a muck down the field. Someone else at receiver steps up every week, whether its Patrick Crayton or Sam Hurd. Jason Witten has also been a monster in the passing game. And once the passing game torches you, Marion Barber III gets the ball, and he is destroying teams in the 4th quarter. The Cowboys have the most impressive all-around offense going at the moment. On defense, I think the team is overrated. They started out by giving up 35 to the Giants. Then they gave up 20 to a mediocre Dolphins offense. They've given up just 17 in the last 2 weeks, but that was against Rex Grossman and the Rams, who have the worst offense in the league right now. Neither one of those teams can test the Cowboys secondary right now. The first 2 teams could, and look at the results. Also, neither of those teams the last 2 weeks are running the ball well. The Cowboys, against the run, should continue to thrive. The linebackers attack lanes well and are good enough to prevent the big play. Roy Williams is a monster attacking the run. DeMarcus Ware is a beast who can do everything. However, the secondary, which is solid against the run, is weak against a team that can go vertical. Newman is on and off, and Roy Williams is a sitting duck at times on deep balls. He is often out of position. The Bills are clearly headed in the right direction but won't contend this year. J.P. Losman is still inconsistent at quarterback but is now hurt and again worrying about his future. Trent Edwards was a high draft pick and after one game he looks good, even though it was against the Jets. Marshawn Lynch is still feeling his way around but is beginning to adjust to the speed of the game. The receiving core has been disappointing so far this year. Lee Evans has taken a step backward from the last couple of seasons. On defense the Bills aren't much to look at. They're O.K. against the run and have a couple of good players upfront, but they have lost all skill in the secondary. Without Nate Clemens they are lost out there and teams with quarterbacks that can throw the ball 20 yards have enjoyed plenty of big plays. In this game, that's a recipe for another huge game for Tony Romo and another couple of million in bonuses.
The Pick: Cowboys win & cover
And with that goes the longest week 5 article ever written.
+ In future week to week analysis from now until the end of the year the breakdowns will be much shorter with just the overall game analysis and without the profiles of each team. I just thought I should put those in to give readers an idea of what I'm seeing as I evaluate the teams.
