The Early Mock: Postmortem 2007
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by user Drpatriot
Well, the Early Mock had a very nice run for most of this year. In celebration of the beautiful even that we recognize as the NFL Draft 2007, I have decided to do a post-draft article featuring a 20-20 look backwards at the Early Mock: what was right and what was wrong. In addition, I've analyzed every team's draft, from round 1 to round 7, and given them a grade from A+ to F.
And first, the "What Was Right" about The Early Mock, in chronological order: The Early Mock: What Went Right
Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU: Word has it that this talented quarterback is coming out early and the Raiders could use some excitement on the offensive side of the ball. Even in December, I predicted that Oakland would indeed select JaMarcus Russell with their pick. Though I didn't stick with this selection the whole way through, it was one of my more consistent choices up top.
Baltimore: Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State: Troy Smith will add speed, strength and toughness as the future franchise QB of the Baltimore Ravens. Though I forecast this pick for the first round, not the fifth, I was correct in predicting their selection of the Heisman-winning quarterback.
Sadly, these are the only outrageous claims I can make about predictions in the Early Mock, other than a correct forecasting of the Top Four made in this edition. Actually, that was probably my most accurate mock among the bunch. It's called an Early Mock for a reason, folks.
The Early Mock: What Went Wrong (My Six Personal Favorites)
3 Cleveland: Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State. No comment is necessary for this one.
25 Jacksonville: Brandon Siler, LB, Florida. Brandon Siler went to San Diego. In the 7th rounder. Ouch.
27 Philadelphia: Rufus Alexander, OLB, Oklahoma. Another linebacker that I had going way, way too high. Alexander fell to the Vikings in the sixth round.
47 Carolina: Chris Leak, QB, Florida. Leak went undrafted this weekend.
49 Green Bay: DeShawn Wynn, RB, Florida. Green Bay actually did draft Wynn...in the 7th round. Oops.
82 St. Louis: Craig Davis, WR, LSU. This was the only mock in which Craig Davis made an appearance. He was drafted in the first round by the Chargers. (You can see my opinion about this move in the analysis below).
NFL DRAFT 2007: ANALYSIS:
Here comes the part you've all been waiting for (or perhaps not), the analysis. My analysis is divided into three parts for each team.
VALUE: A team's value drafting is based on reaches, value picks, and steals in the draft, along with any trades they made during the day or before the draft.
DAY 1 PICKS: These picks are assessed solely on how they will fit with the team and their projected future performance. The draft pick used has absolutely nothing to do with this section.
DAY 2 PICKS: As above, the picks are assessed solely on how they will fit with the team and their projected future performance. The draft pick used has absolutely nothing to do with this section.
An overall grade is also given, based on these three things. There is no real formula for coming up with their final grade, but the other grades are definitely taken into consideration
Here it goes.
Philadelphia: A+
Value: A-. Great value drafting throughout and weren’t afraid to move around for who they wanted. Not drafting a safety until the 5th round was a little questionable.
Day 1 Picks: A. Kolb was high on my board and is a great fit for the West Coast offense. Abiamiri and Bradley add a more physical presence to the front seven. Tony Hunt adds a power runner to the mix and makes Christof a very happy camper.
Day 2 Picks: A+. Gaddis and Barksdale add depth to the secondary. Celek is a nice project pick at tight end. Ilaoa is a good blocker and a good receiver.
Best Pick: Kevin Kolb
Boom or Bust: Tony Hunt
Watch Out For: Brent Celek
Carolina: A
Value: A. They traded down and got exactly the players that they wanted. I don’t see a bad value pick anywhere. Highlights are Charles Johnson in the 3rd and Dwayne Jarrett in the 2nd.
Day 1 Picks: A. Jarrett is underrated and Kalil is the best center in the draft. Jon Beason is not my personal favorite but should perform well in their defensive scheme. Charles Johnson has a lot of upside but will take time to grow.
Day 2 Picks: B+. Rosario, Shaw and Wilson should all contribute at some point. With Jarrett already selected, Ryne Robinson was a luxury pick.
Best Pick: Dwayne Jarrett
Boom or Bust: Jon Beason
Watch Out For: Charles Johnson
Minnesota: A
Value: A+. Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice were both great value. Aundrae Allison and Rufus Alexander were both tremendous steals.
Day 1 Picks: B. The Vikings took three risky picks on Day 1. Adrian Peterson will be great if he comes out of the injury successfully. Sidney Rice is very raw but could develop into a great wide receiver. Marcus McCauley also has a lot of potential but not necessarily the best attitude.
Day 2 Picks: A. Brian Robison will add needed depth at defensive end. Aundrae Allison could play very well in the Vikings offense. Rufus Alexander could be the steal of the draft at linebacker.
Best Pick: Adrian Peterson
Boom or Bust: Marcus McCauley
Watch Out For: Rufus Alexander
San Francisco: A
Value: “Ninja”. The 49ers traded up for Joe Staley and also got Patrick Willis without actually losing any picks but a 2nd, as they received a 1st in 2008 from the Colts. They made a killing on the trade for Darrell Jackson with the Seahawks. All of their picks were of relatively good value, noteably Ray McDonald and Tarrell Brown. The little 49ers front office is all grown up!
Day 1 Picks: A. Willis should add an immediate presence to the linebacking corps. Joe Staley adds protection on the line for Alex Smith. Jason Hill is a solid presence at wide receiver. Ray McDonald could start immediately.
Day 2 Picks: B+. Moore, Goldson, Brown and Cohen all add needed depth on defense. Thomas Clayton could compete for a roster spot at runningback.
Best Pick: Patrick Willis
Boom or Bust: Tarrell Brown
Watch Out For: Ray McDonald
Arizona: A-
Value: A-. Though Levi Brown could’ve been acquired lower, no one was interested in trading up. Other than that, great value throughout the draft.
Day 1 Picks: B+. Brown meets a huge need at RT and Alan Branch is a talented player. Buster Davis is a talented player and looks like a good fit if, based on their adding Alan Branch when they already possess Darnell Dockett, they stick with a 4-3 scheme.
Day 2 Picks: B. Steve Breaston has hands problems but won’t need to be more than a 4th wideout. Ben Patrick is a good developmental prospect at tight end.
Best Pick: Levi Brown
Boom or Bust: Alan Branch
Watch Out For: Ben Patrick
Detroit: A-
Value: A. They stayed home and nabbed one of the best prospects in recent history in Calvin Johnson. Sending away Williams and McCown, who lost their spots on the team, was great value for a fourth-rounder. Manny Ramirez was a steal in the fifth round.
Day 1 Picks: A-. Johnson is fantastic. Drew Stanton is too inconsistent to have success at the pro level. Gerald Alexander wasn’t worth trading up for but could be a good fit as a Cover 2 cornerback. Ikaika Alama-Francis will add a good pass rush at defensive end.
Day 2 Picks: B. Manny Ramirez is a good player at offensive guard. A.J. Davis could be a sleeper at cornerback.
Best Pick: Calvin Johnson
Boom or Bust: Drew Stanton
Watch Out For: A.J. Davis
New England: A-
Value: “Ninja”. The Patriots franchise shows their fantastic drafting ability once again. Sending picks away for Wes Welker and Randy Moss both gave better players than were available at their respective positions in the draft. After dealing for San Francisco’s 1st and Oakland’s 3rd, the Patriots are also stacked for the 2008 draft. Solid value picking throughout the draft as well.
Day 1 Pick: A-. Brandon Meriweather is a tough prospect to evaluate because of his off-field issues, but he should succeed under the tutelage of Rodney Harrison.
Day 2 Picks: B. Picks on the defensive and offensive lines add depth at positions that were not addressed in free agency. Justin Rogers is a good developmental outside linebacker. Justise Hairston is a big runningback who could add to the power running game. Mike Richardson adds more depth to the defensive backfield.
Best Pick: Brandon Meriweather
Boom or Bust: Randy Moss (acquired with fourth-round pick)
Watch Out For: Justin Rogers
Pittsburgh: A-
Value: B+. Timmons and Woodley were both good value up top and indicate a switch to the Cover 2. Solid value through the rest of the draft.
Day 1 Picks: A-. Lawrence Timmons is a good fit for the Cover 2. Lamarr Woodley is one of my favorite players in the draft and should excel in Pittsburgh. Spaeth was a luxury pick with Heath Miller already in full command of the tight end spot.
Day 2 Picks: A-. Sepulvida will challenge for the starting punter spot. Ryan McBean is good depth at defensive end. Dallas Baker is a good sleeper pick at wide receiver.
Best Pick: Lamarr Woodley
Boom or Bust: Daniel Sepulvida
Watch Out For: Dallas Baker
Tampa Bay: A-
Value: B-. Gaines Adams was the easy selection at #4. Arron Sears, Sabby Piscitelli, and Quincy Black all could have been acquired later. Day 2 had solid value.
Day 1 Picks: A. Adams, Piscitelli, and Black are all good fits for the Cover 2 defense. Arron Sears can improve any position on the offensive line, or could find nowhere that he fits in.
Day 2 Picks: B+. Tanard Jackson could surprise people. Peterson, Hayward, and Hamilton add more depth on defense. Kenneth Darby could challenge for the #3 spot at runningback. Chris Denman is probably practice squad material.
Best Pick: Gaines Adams
Boom or Bust: Arron Sears
Watch Out For: Tanard Jackson
Atlanta: B+
Value: B+. Chris Houston at 47 was fantastic value. Also some good value in Day 2.
Day 1 Picks: B. Jamaal Anderson fills a need with Patrick Kerney’s departure, but I’m not really thrilled with the pick with Okoye still available. Blalock is a solid selection. Houston is a great fit for Atlanta’s defense. Laurent Robinson doesn’t look to be more than a 4th receiver in the NFL. I was surprised by the decision not to select a safety on Day 1.
Day 2 Picks: B+. Irons, Datish, and Stone are all good picks and good fits. Trey Lewis and Jason Snelling are good backups.
Best Pick: Justin Blalock
Boom or Bust: Chris Houston
Watch Out For: Daren Stone
Dallas: B+
Value: A. Fantastic job getting Cleveland’s first next year but still picking up Anthony Spencer, and good value through the rest of the draft.
Day 1 Picks: B+. Spencer is a great prospect, but they already have Bobby Carpenter and Demarcus Ware. James Marten should be a good lineman wherever they can fit him in.
Day 2 Picks: B. Doug Free is a better lineman than Marten. Isaiah Stanback should be an interesting conversion prospect.
Best Pick: Anthony Spencer
Boom or Bust: Isaiah Stanback
Watch Out For: Doug Free
Miami: B+
Value: A-. We were all astounded when they passed on Quinn in the first, but selecting Beck in the second made up for it. Good selections on Day 1 but only okay selections on Day 2.
Day 1 Picks: B-. Ted Ginn isn’t going to be a #1 receiver in the NFL. John Beck could be a future leader for the Dolphins. Samson Satele should do well at center. Lorenzo Booker scares me, as a Patriots fan.
Day 2 Picks: B-. Paul Soliai should develop into a good DT while he waits for a starting spot to open up. Kelvin Smith could be a good fit at ILB.
Best Pick: John Beck
Boom or Bust: Ted Ginn
Watch Out For: Lorenzo Booker
Buffalo: B
Value: B+. Pozluszny was a good value pick. Marshawn Lynch was a reach. Okay to good value through rest of draft.
Day 1 Picks: B. Lynch is a poor man’s Ahman Green and won’t fit well with the Buffalo blocking scheme. Pozluszny is a solid replacement for Takeo Spikes. Trent Edwards is a nice pickup in Round 3.
Day 2 Picks: C+. John Wendling is a good prospect. Dwayne Wright is overrated but could be a good fit in Buffalo. Schouman and Ah You will both be practice squad fodder.
Best Pick: Paul Pozluszny
Boom or Bust: Marshawn Lynch
Watch Out For: John Wendling
Chicago: B
Value: B. They did well with Greg Olsen at the end of the first, but the rest of the draft is questionable. Trading out of #37 for four picks was brilliant.
Day 1 Picks: A-. Olsen should have success as Rex Grossman’s go-to guy. Bazuin is a very good selection at DE. Garrett Wolfe could play a Maurice Jones-Drew like role in their offense. Michael Okwo could fit well or could just be a flop.
Day 2 Picks: B. Other than Josh Beekman, these are all relative unknowns or small-school picks. Kevin Payne and Corey Graham fit the Cover 2 well.
Best Pick: Dan Bazuin
Boom or Bust: Michael Okwo
Watch Out For: Garrett Wolfe
Cincinnati: B
Value: A. Waited for their man to fall in the first round and got him. Good value picking through the rest of the draft.
Day 1 Picks: B. Leon Hall is a great pick, but Kenny Irons is a luxury pick that doesn’t really have a place on their offense.
Day 2 Picks: B. Marvin White and Ndukwe add good depth to the secondary. Jeff Rowe should be a good backup for Carson Palmer.
Best Pick: Leon Hall
Boom or Bust: Kenny Irons
Watch Out For: Jeff Rowe
Houston: B
Value: B+. Amobi Okoye was a good pick at the bottom of the Top 10. Jacoby Jones was selected too early in the race to get a wide receiver that occurred during the third round. The rest of the draft is good value.
Day 1 Picks: B. Okoye should be a superstar but Jacoby Jones is too raw to have an immediate impact. The failure to draft offensive line AGAIN stands out.
Day 2 Picks: A-. Fred Bennett and Brandon Harrison should contribute immediately in the secondary. Frye and Studdard will add much-needed depth and competition to the offensive line.
Best Pick: Amobi Okoye
Boom or Bust: Jacoby Jones
Watch Out For: Kasey Studdard
New Orleans: B
Value: B. Meachem is a good value at the end of the 1st. Pittman was a good selection in the fourth round. No real steals, but no real reaches either.
Day 1 Picks: B. Meachem is a good fit for their offense and a nice big target for Drew Brees. Usama Young is not aggressive enough to be a good cover corner. Andy Alleman is a very speedy player for someone of his dimensions (6’4”, 302 lbs)
Day 2 Picks: B. Pittman is a good pick, but where does he fit on the offense? Jermon Bushrod is a great developmental tackle. Marvin Mitchell could be a sleeper at inside linebacker.
Best Pick: Robert Meachem
Boom or Bust: Usama Young
Watch Out For: Jermon Bushrod
Seattle: B
Value: B+. They did what they could without a first round pick and made some solid selections.
Day 1 Picks: B. Josh Wilson and Brandon Mebane both have a lot of upside, but they could both also be quite disappointing.
Day 2 Picks: B. Mansfield Wrotto could actually start on the offensive line. Taylor and Kent replace the departed Darrell Jackson. Will Herring was rated highly at the start of the season and could be much better than expected.
Best Pick: Josh Wilson
Boom or Bust: Brandon Mebane
Watch Out For: Will Herring
Tennessee: B
Value: B. Michael Griffin and Chris Henry were both picked a little early, but the Titans got the players they wanted as the rush for players at their respective positions began. Solid value through the rest of the draft.
Day 1 Picks: B. Michael Griffin will add versatility and depth to the secondary. Chris Henry adds a one-two punch with Lendale White, but could he just be a workout warrior? Paul Williams adds another option at wide receiver for Vince Young.
Day 2 Picks: B+ Filani and Davis add more depth to the Titans’ wide receiver position. Harris and Otto add needed depth to the offensive line, while Antonio Johnson and Jacob Ford bring more competition to the defensive line. Ryan Smith could shine if given the opportunity without Pac-Man Jones.
Best Pick: Michael Griffin
Boom or Bust: Chris Henry
Watch Out For: Ryan Smith
Cleveland: B-
Value: B-. They got their main man in Brady Quinn at #22, but they got absolutely demolished in the trade and will seriously regret it if Quinn doesn’t work out. Okay value for the rest of the draft.
Day 1 Picks: B. Joe Thomas AND Brady Quinn could be a killer combo in the making, but I’m not so convinced. Eric Wright could play very well, but are his off-the-field problems too big of a concern?
Day 2 Picks: B-. Syndric Steptoe is a good developmental pick. Melila Purcell is a good developmental OLB.
Best Pick: Joe Thomas
Boom or Bust: Brady Quinn/Eric Wright
Watch Out For: Syndric Steptoe
Green Bay: B-
Value: F. Justin Harrell was a horrendous pick in the middle of the first round. Brandon Jackson, James Jones, and Korey Hall all could have been acquired in trade downs. I’m astounded that they didn’t just take Steve Smith with their original second-round pick. The failure to draft a quarterback is very saddening for Packers fans. Though the personnel selected are fine, the Packers need to pay more attention to the draft boards of other teams
Day 1 Picks: B. Harrell is a very risky selection but they could reap the benefits. Brandon Jackson is a very nice fit for the zone-blocking scheme of the Packers. James Jones will get playing time, but not because he deserves it. Aaron Rouse should add depth and challenge for a starting spot.
Day 2 Picks: A. David Clowney should have success with the deep ball in this offense. Desmond bishop and Korey Hall are both okay developmental ILBs. Mason Crosby can challenge Dave Rayner for the kicking spot.
Best Pick: Brandon Jackson
Boom or Bust: Justin Harrell
Watch Out For: David Clowney
Kansas City: B-
Value: B. Dwayne Bowe was pretty good value, but couldn’t quite meet the expectations of those hoping for Brady Quinn to fall. Demarcus Tyler was good value in the 3rd. Okay value in Day 2.
Day 1 Picks: B-. Bowe doesn’t have the right attitude to do well in the NFL. One of the two defensive tackles drafted will likely have success somewhere.
Day 2 Picks: B. Kolby Smith could be a very good fit for this offense. Justin Medlock is a good selection at kicker.
Best Pick: Turk McBride
Boom or Bust: Dwayne Bowe
Watch Out For: Kolby Smith
New York Giants: B-
Value: B. Another draft with nothing spectacular, but no clear reaches. Ahmad Bradshaw was good value at the end of the seventh.
Day 1 Picks: C+. The failure to draft an offensive tackle under Round 6 is very surprising. Aaron Ross has the physical skills but not the mental focus. Steve Smith should be a good #2 or #3 receiver. Jay Alford adds depth at defensive tackle but there were better players available at positions of bigger need.
Day 2 Picks: B. Zak DeOssie is a good developmental linebacker. Michael Johnson should add depth at safety. Giants fans hope that Adam Koets is the best lineman ever to come out of the sixth round. Ahmad Bradshaw could actually be a factor, even out of the seventh round.
Best Pick: Steve Smith
Boom or Bust: Aaron Ross
Watch Out For: Zak DeOssie
Oakland: B-
Value: B-. At the time, JaMarcus looked like the right call, but if they had selected Calvin Johnson instead they would have had a good chance at trading up. Miller and Moses are solid value picks. John Bowie for Randy Moss is an absolutely horrible deal.
Day 1 Picks: B-. I see no sign that JaMarcus Russell will have a successful career in Oakland. Miller is a solid tight end. Moses should add more of a pass rush opposite Burgess. Mario Henderson adds depth at defensive tackle. Johnnie Lee Higgins replaces the departing Randy Moss.
Day 2 Picks: B. Michael Bush is a great pick. John Bowie is not the answer at cornerback. Richardson and Frampton both add depth in the secondary. O’Neal and Holland are training camp fodder.
Best Pick: Michael Bush
Boom or Bust: JaMarcus Russell
Watch Out For: Eric Frampton
St. Louis: B-
Value: C+. Carriker was a good value pick, but Leonard and Wade went much too high. Other prospects are all little-knowns or small-school prospects.
Day 1 Picks: B-. Adam Carriker should make an immediate impact and is my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Brian Leonard is a confusing choice because he is quite similar to Steven Jackson. Jonathan Wade looks like another Rams cornerback bust.
Day 2 Picks: B+: A dedication to both offensive and defensive line shows a dedication to improving this team in the trenches. Derek Stanley is a longshot to make the roster.
Best Pick: Adam Carriker
Boom or Bust: Jonathan Wade
Watch Out For: Clifton Ryan
Baltimore: C+
Value: C. Yamon Figurs and Antwan Barnes were both selected earlier than necessary. With Grubbs already selected, why did they also take Marshal Yanda? Troy Smith was very nice value at the bottom.
Day 1 Picks: C+. Grubbs and Yanda are both good selections, but the combination isn’t really necessary. Figurs didn’t perform well as a wide receiver but could be a good KR/PR.
Day 2 Picks: B-. Troy Smith is a fantastic pick for the Ravens. Prescott Burgess seems like a better fit for a Cover 2. Le’Ron McClain was the best FB available. Antwan Barnes will be a solid backup.
Best Pick: Troy Smith
Boom or Bust: Yamon Figurs
Watch Out For: Le’Ron McClain
Indianapolis: C+
Value: C. Gonzalez was selected far too early for a #2 or #3 wideout. Tony Ugoh was not worth a 2008 first-rounder. Hughes and Pitcock were nice value at the end of the 3rd round.
Day 1 Picks: B. Gonzalez is overrated but will have good teachers and plenty of time to develop. Ugoh is too raw to start immediately. Daymeion Hughes is a great fit for the Cover 2. Pitcock will play well in spot duty.
Day 2 Picks: C. Condren and Coe aren’t good fits for the Cover 2 defense. Clint Session and Keyunta Dawson are solid backups. Roy Hall is a good developmental prospect.
Best Pick: Daymeion Hughes
Boom or Bust: Tony Ugoh
Watch Out For: Roy Hall
Jacksonville: C+
Value: C+. The trade down for Reggie Nelson was genius. Justin Durant was selected a little early. Bad value in rounds 3 through 5 bring this grade down.
Day 1 Picks: C. Reggie Nelson should be a good fit for the Jaguars’ defensive scheme. Justin Durant has a lot of potential but will likely do no more than become a backup. Mike Walker has little potential for growth but could play well in their offense.
Day 2 Picks: B-. The Jaguars didn’t need a punter as early as Round 4. Brian Smith and Derek Landri add depth on defensive line. Josh Gattis was an insurance pick if Nelson doesn’t pan out.
Best Pick: Reggie Nelson
Boom or Bust: Justin Durant
Watch Out For: Derek Landri
New York Jets: C+
Value: C-. They got some good players, but they better hope it was worth no picks from the 3rd to 5th rounds and only 4 picks overall.
Day 1 Picks: B+. Darrelle Revis has potential but might not be ready to play yet. David Harris should be a good run-stopper in the 3-4.
Day 2 Picks: C. Jacob Bender should be good depth at OT. Chansi Stuckey is an okay developmental prospect.
Best Pick: David Harris
Boom or Bust: Darrelle Revis
Watch Out For: Chansi Stuckey.
Denver: C
Value: D. They gave up too much to get a player who was already going to make it to their original pick. Trading away a future 3rd-round pick, along with later picks, for a player like Marcus Thomas with off-field problems was a really stupid decision.
Day 1 Picks: B+. Moss and Crowder are both good defensive ends, but I doubt both win starting spots. Ryan Harris fits well with their blocking scheme.
Day 2 Pick: C-. Marcus Thomas has the skills, but does he have the attitude?
Best Pick: Tim Crowder
Boom or Bust: Marcus Thomas
Watch Out For: Ryan Harris
Washington: C-
Value: N/A. Teams with one pick in the first four rounds don’t really understand “value” in the NFL draft.
Day 1 Pick: C-. LaRon Landry is a good player, but they needed help at defensive line. When you only have one pick here, you have to make the right pick, and they had a lot of needs that didn’t get filled.
Day 2 Picks: B+. Sartz and Blades should add reasonable depth and challenge the starters in training camp. Jordan Palmer could suddenly be possessed by his brother’s spirit and bring some competition to Jason Campbell. Tyler Ecker didn’t really get many opportunities at Michigan but could surprise.
Best Pick: LaRon Landry
Boom or Bust: The 135 picks between Landry and Sartz
Watch Out For: Jordan Palmer
San Diego: D+
Value: F. Craig Davis is not worthy of a first-round pick. Eric Weddle is a good player, but is not worth a second, two thirds, and a fifth. Anthony Waters was a reach. Okay value through the rest of the draft.
Day 1 Picks: C. Eric Weddle will be a reasonably good player. Craig Davis is no more than a #2 receiver. Anthony Waters is a big risk coming off a torn ACL.
Day 2 Picks: B-. Scott Chandler is a luxury pick with Antonio Gates and others on the bench. Legedu Naanee is a marginal sleeder pick. Brandon Siler could surprise people.
Best Pick: Eric Weddle
Boom or Bust: Anthony Waters
Watch Out For: Brandon Siler
