Requiem for a Dynasty?
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by Kelsdad
Thirteen consecutive years in the postseason. Six World Series appearances. Four World Championships. With due respect to the Atlanta Braves, five World Series and one Championship in fifteen years pales by comparison. The Yankees loss to the Cleveland Indians set a franchise record for consecutive postseason losses, and likely marked the end of the road for the current group of Bronx Bombers. Turmoil in the front office, five All-Star caliber players with full or limited free agency pending. A manager and general manager with their backs to the wall. All signs point to an interesting off-season to say the least, and, if things don't go according to plan, the likelihood the next few years will be defined by mediocrity.
Look, George Steinbrenner is not an idiot. The franchise is at a turning point it hasn't seen in a generation. With a new Stadium opening in 2009, the last thing The Boss wants is to start off on the wrong foot with both Major League Baseball and the City of New York. So, what happens now. Well, I'm going to tell you, at least what I think.
Steinbrenner has alot on the line here. It's not just the new Stadium, it's the neighborhood around it. The City of New York, and the Governor's office insisted George be hands on through the whole process. The Stadium. The city park which will eventually sit where the current Stadium lies. The relocation of the River Ave. Subway stop. In doing so, Boss George did something he has never done; give unquestioned control to his General Manager. With conditions, of course. The conditions being everything would come back to him if things didn't go as they should. So, in December 2005, GM Brian Cashman signed a three year, fifteen million dollar contract extension. Cashman was named GM in December 1998, after Joe Torre was hired, and after the foundation had been laid for the future, including World Series appearances in 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2003. Cashman's contributions the last four years have led to no World Series appearances, and the Yankees arguably fall farther away every year.
Looking at 2008 and forward, this is what could happen, and, in some cases, should.
Brian Cashman : Contract status. One year remaining at five million dollars. There is a comfort zone for Steinbrenner already in the Yankees organization by the name of Joe Torre. Promote Torre to GM, promote Don Mattingly to manager, which is going to happen regardless, and give Cashman his buyout.
Joe Torre : Contract status. Expired. Sorry, George, you can't fire someone who is unemployed, and who says the decision whether or not Torre comes back is yours? Do the right thing, at least offer Torre the GM job.
Don Mattingly : The next Yankees manager, regardless of who the GM is.
Jorge Posada : Contract status, free agent. Posada is thirty-six years old, and has averaged 135 games caught the past nine seasons. Paid 13 million in 2007. As with Mariano Rivera, Posada was hurt by the Yankees breaking a long standing team policy of not negotiating contracts in season with Alex Rodriguez. Joe Torre's status for 2008 may also play a role in whether Posada returns. The Yankees consider Posada a must sign as there are no catcher prospects in their Minor League system. Sources indicate the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have serious interest in Posada.
Jason Giambi : One year remaining at a guaranteed 16 million. Team option for 2009 for 17 million which includes a 5 million buyout. His days as a first baseman are over. About three years ago. If the Yankees are successful in their bid for Adam Dunn, I bite the bullet and wave bye bye.
Robinson Cano : Contract status. Expired. Has no arbitration rights until 2009. Despite his offensive performance the past two years, the Yankees have grown increasingly dissatisfied with Cano. He can't hit lefties, he has little plate discipline or strike zone management, and his instincts defensively and on the bases are non-existent. The Yankees traded Alfonso Soriano, a decidedly better player for the same reason, so if the opportunity presents itself to acquire a Johan Santana type, Cano is gone.
Derek Jeter : Contract status, three years remaining at 61 million. Ain't goin' anywhere.
Alex Rodriguez : Contract status. Three years at 81 million, of which 57 million is owed by his former team, the Texas Rangers. Contract contains a one time opt out clause, which must be envoked within ten days after the end of the 2007 World Series. If he chooses to opt out, he becomes a free agent. Scott Boras, ARod's agent, has mentioned the possibility of a 300 million contract, or a contract averaging 30 million a year. Rodriguez spent the past off-season working out at shortstop. He may not want to become the all time homer leader. He may not care about 3500 career hits. He does want to be known as the greatest shortstop of all-time. The Yanks have been clear and upfront through all this too, they will not attempt to re-sign ARod if he opts out, which he will.
Johnny Damon : Contract status, two years remaining at 27 million, including a limited no trade. Damon will turn 36 on November 5th, this season was his worst offensively since his 2001 season in Oakland. His days as a full time CF are likely over, he did play a decent left field and also spent some time at first base. Johnny D. is still an everyday player, agreeably won't put up 190 hits or score 125 runs anymore, but will be a factor nonetheless.
Hideki Matsui :Contract status, two years remaining at 26 million. Matsui, 33, has been a below average outfielder since he joined the Yankees. He's not getting any younger, and has struggled with hamstring injuries the past two seasons. A possibility to play first base, a move to right field is also possible.
Melky Cabrera : Contract status, expired. No arbitration rights until 2009. The Yankees in the mid-eighties finished below .500 five of seven seasons, utilizing part-time players in starting roles. Roberto Kelly, Mel Hall and Dave Collins to name a few. Cabrera fits this role. A slightly above average OF with a decent arm, Cabrera has little offensive value, and as a focal point of the offense would struggle big-time, taking the rest of the team with him. A serviceable fourth outfielder, it is imperative the Yankees return him to this role for 2008.
Bobby Abreu : Contract status, one year club option at 16 million with a two million buy-out. The Yanks will buy him out and attempt to re-sign him at a much lower salary. It is unlikely he will accept anything less than 10 million, even for one year, so the guess here is he will move on. Abreu will turn 34 during spring training, and is coming off one of his worst seasons since his rookie campaign with Houston in 1996.
Doug Mientkiewicz : Contract status, one year at 2.2 million. A solid defensive player, not anyone you want playing 150 games, but as a part-time starter or late inning replacement, he has value. Will return.
Mariano Rivera : Contract status, free agent. Rivera turns 38 in November, and is coming off his worst season, by far, since becoming the Yankees full time closer in 1996. Do the Yankees re-sign him, maybe for two years and start phasing him out? Do they follow the Red Sox example with Jonathon Papelbon, take a top minor league starter and make him the closer? Closers are a dime a dozen, I'd sign Rivera for two years, and bring in a lesser known commodity just in case.
Update: In an interview today with Fox Sports, Mariano Rivera all but closed out the Yankees as an option if Joe Torre were to leave.
Chien-Ming Wang : Contract status, signed through 2009. Not an ace by any stretch, should be no more than a three. If the Yankees lose Andy Pettitte and are unable to acquire a front line starter, and are forced to go into the season with Wang as the #1, it's going to be a long year.
Mike Mussina : Contract status, one year at 10 million. Turns 39 in December. Likely won't find a taker on the trade market, so why not bring him back as the fifth starter?
Andy Pettitte : Contract status, one year player option at 16 million. Indications are he will negotiate a buyout and retire. Decision likely will be influenced on what happens to Rivera, Posada and Torre, the same can be said for them as well.
With all that's been said and written about the Yankees pitching, most of which is true, the common denominator of the past Yankee championships has been a decent bullpen and a solid bench. While the bullpen wasn't up to par with past teams, it wasn't all that bad either, the bench however was another story. It was freakin' horrible. Andy Phillips, Miguel Cairo, Shelley Duncan, Josh Phelps are all terrible and have no business being on a Major League roster. Damon, Matsui, Giambi and even Posada all played games they shouldn't have because of the lack of anything decent on the bench.
Down on the farm, the Yankees pre-season Minor League prospect list had eight righthanded pitchers in the top ten. The only position players, outfielders Jose Tabata (3), and Brett Gardner (10), are both coming off seasons in which they did nothing to enhance their prospect status. Out of the pitchers listed, Phillip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Tyler Clippard all made appearances in New York this season and appear, at least dependent on the expected off-season moves, to begin the season in the Majors.
I picked the Red Sox to win it all this season in part due to what I just mentioned. They have the best balance of any team. For the Yankees to remain a threat and get back to what their fans, and, more importantly, Boss George, expect, there are a handful of moves which must be made before Opening Day. Will they? No one knows, but it's going to be an fun to wait and see.
