Reexamining Clutch: Final 2006 Stats
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
Part way through the 2006 season, I posted this article, Reexamining Clutch: MLB's Best Run Producer, putting forth a different way to think about the ability to drive in runs. Today's article will present the final data from last season, using the same method from the previous article.
Here is how I assembled the data. First, I took a trip over to Baseball Prospectus' stats page. From there, I plugged all 800+ players' data on plate appearances with runners on and which base they were on. From this, I calculated that a runner from first scored 5.37% of the time, from second 16.14%, and from third 36.67%. These numbers made sense, the farther along the basepaths, the easier to score.
The next step was to multiply the individual's base situations by the average rate of scoring. For example, David Ortiz has come to bat with a runner on first 244 times. This number would then be multiplied by 5.37%, as explained above, to produce 13.10. In other words, Ortiz would be expected to drive in approximately thirteen runners from first, given his number of chances. Ortiz has actually driven in 23 runners, most likely due to his power. A weaker batter, such as Derek Jeter, has driven in only 10, compared to his expected output of 11.38.
The final column of the table displays how many extra runs have been driven in than expected. Lance Berkman leads the pack by three over Albert Pujols. Berkman actually had 22 fewer plate appearances than Pujols, but drove in 3 more runners. Of players with at least 200 plate appearances, only Miguel Cabrera had a higher rate of driving runners in than Berkman.
So, to answer the opening question, it appears as if Berkman has been the best player at driving in baserunners, followed closely behind by Pujols. After Pujols, another gap of three exists before Cabrera and Michael Young.
Freddy Sanchez really capitalized on driving in runners from third base, scoring 57.69%. His lack of power showed in his inability to bring runners from first around to score. Less than 4% of runners on first base were driven in by Sanchez.
If you are wondering why I didn't include batters driving themselves in (HRs), refer to the comments section in the original article. Mainly, including home runs would measure something I am not trying to measure with this stat.
2006 (sorted by +/-)
NAME TEAM YEAR PA PA_ROB ROB OBI R1BI% R2BI% R3BI% OBI% xOBI +/- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lance Berkman HOU 2006 646 323 426 91 12.61% 24.64% 43.94% 21.36% 58 33 Albert Pujols SLN 2006 634 301 427 88 11.40% 27.27% 38.81% 20.61% 58 30 Miguel Cabrera FLO 2006 676 314 410 88 11.17% 24.26% 42.86% 21.46% 61 27 Michael Young TEX 2006 748 337 440 89 6.49% 25.38% 51.90% 20.23% 62 27 Justin Morneau MIN 2006 661 309 469 96 9.43% 20.25% 45.74% 20.47% 72 24 Brian McCann ATL 2006 492 224 323 69 10.63% 24.77% 46.30% 21.36% 46 23 Raul Ibanez SEA 2006 699 327 442 90 8.96% 21.15% 45.88% 20.36% 67 23 V. Guerrero ANA 2006 665 329 425 83 11.11% 20.78% 39.73% 19.53% 62 21 Ryan Howard PHI 2006 704 358 509 91 12.31% 19.64% 32.10% 17.88% 71 20 Carlos Beltran NYN 2006 617 287 373 75 10.00% 16.67% 50.67% 20.11% 55 20 Garrett Atkins COL 2006 695 350 504 91 8.10% 19.65% 44.05% 18.06% 72 19 Travis Hafner CLE 2006 564 280 382 75 10.99% 21.21% 39.71% 19.63% 56 19 Aramis Ramirez CHN 2006 660 315 421 81 9.55% 19.18% 44.74% 19.24% 62 19 Paul Konerko CHA 2006 643 323 456 78 6.54% 21.71% 49.25% 17.11% 59 19 Freddy Sanchez PIT 2006 632 294 403 79 3.16% 20.74% 57.69% 19.60% 61 18 N. Garciaparra LAN 2006 523 277 370 73 7.94% 28.30% 37.33% 19.73% 55 18 David Wright NYN 2006 661 323 475 90 6.52% 24.32% 40.21% 18.95% 72 18 Magglio Ordonez DET 2006 646 297 418 80 7.92% 23.36% 40.51% 19.14% 62 18 Juan Rivera ANA 2006 494 217 306 62 9.62% 23.40% 44.64% 20.26% 44 18 Alex Rios TOR 2006 498 232 323 65 10.43% 19.39% 46.77% 20.12% 47 18 Jermaine Dye CHA 2006 611 306 430 76 7.11% 24.64% 38.81% 17.67% 59 17 Bobby Abreu PHI 2006 438 221 282 57 11.45% 20.56% 45.45% 20.21% 40 17 Derek Jeter NYA 2006 715 327 444 83 4.72% 22.60% 46.51% 18.69% 66 17 Ryan Zimmerman WAS 2006 682 341 480 90 8.42% 19.90% 40.23% 18.75% 74 16 Lyle Overbay TOR 2006 640 297 410 70 8.72% 23.53% 33.93% 17.07% 54 16 David Ortiz BOS 2006 686 353 485 83 9.43% 20.36% 35.14% 17.11% 67 16 Carlos Delgado NYN 2006 618 311 419 76 9.22% 16.31% 47.22% 18.14% 60 16 Joe Mauer MIN 2006 608 301 397 71 4.59% 20.44% 53.13% 17.88% 56 15 J.D. Drew LAN 2006 594 314 437 80 6.37% 19.08% 46.91% 18.31% 65 15 Todd Helton COL 2006 649 292 375 66 7.29% 23.62% 39.29% 17.60% 51 15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are some explanations for the chart:
PA_ROB: Plate apperances with runners on base
ROB: Total runners on base
OBI: Runners driven in (RBI - HR)
OBI%: Percentage of all runners driven in
R_1B%: Percentage of runners on first base driven in
R_2B%: Percentage of runners on second base driven in
R_3B%: Percentage of runners on third base driven in
XOBI%: Expected number of OBI
Again, all of these stats are compliments of Baseball Prospectus, except for XOBI% and the +/- column.
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