Pending 2007 Free Agents and their Possible Impact on the Trading Deadline

by user Kelsdad

An unofficial list of key players who can become free agents after the 2007. The list is incomplete as some free agents are restricted, making them the property of their current teams even as their contracts expire. With the unrestricted trading deadline approaching at the end of the month, a look at some of these guys and the possibility of some of them moving. In the next day or so I'm thinking of listing the teams who may be in the "buy or sell" mode and whether there would be interest in some of these guys.

Catcher : Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, Jorge Posada and Ivan Rodriguez.

Kendall will get no play on the market. If he chooses to leave Oakland, he will have a tough time finding a contract longer than two years, and likely for bargain prices.

The Mets would like to resign Lo Duca and probably will, although he is an Arizona State graduate and native of Glendale, Arizona, making the nearby Arizona Diamondbacks a good possibility if he does move. Probably will have the most offers of all the catchers on the market.

Posada wants to stay in New York, and I believe the Yankees want to keep him...with restrictions. Posada has caught 130 games plus in each of the last eight seasons, and will turn 36 before the 2007 season ends. There has been talk of moving him to first base, but he has never been known for his footwork so I doubt this experiment would be carried out. If he leaves the Yankees, I do look for him to remain in the American League as he would likely have his catching time reduced, thus increasing his DH time.

Pudge is an interesting case. As recently as this past off-season, he expressed interest in leaving Detroit and returning to, of all places, Florida. With the subsequent signing of Jeremy Bonderman and Carlos Guillen and teh acquisition of Gary Sheffield, I think Pudge stays. Three months younger than Posada, Pudge likely won't see a contract offer of longer than three years.

I don't think any of these guys get traded, the most likely, Kendall, has the least value.

First Base : There are no key players at this position for next year, meaning teams in need will have to make do with what they already have, or move someone. So I will. Whichever team acquires Adam Dunn will at least experiment with moving him here. The Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and MAriners have all inquired about Dunn.

I expect the Reds to move either Dunn or Ken Griffey Jr, but not both. More teams are interested in Dunn, and Griffey has a full no trade, but if you're forcing me to pick one being traded, I'm leaning towards Junior.

Second Base : There's really nothing here either, with Luis Castillo and Jeff Kent the only two likely to attract attention. I don't think either of these guys will get much attention on the market, but Kent would be a pretty good bat to grab for the stretch run. I don't see Kent moving because the Dodgers are short on right side sticks.

The Yankees are considering moving Robinson Cano, in part because he's their only tradeable (read:affordable) option and in part because they are becoming increasingly disallusioned with his game. They won't trade him for anything less than a Mark Buehrle type, but you never know.

Shortstop : Again, the cupboard is bare, with David Eckstein and Omar Vizquel topping the choices. I seem to remember Vizquel signing in spring training, so if anyone reading this can confirm or deny, I'd appreciate it. Eckstein will get some play on the market, Vizquel not as much. Tony LaRussa knows how important Eckstein is to his style of play in St. Louis, so while Eckstein may talk to a few teams I think he stays a Cardinal. If Vizquel is interested in a two year deal with no concern to playing time or being on a playoff contender, then he may actually get more play than Eckstein, but the money won't be anything close.

Neither should be considered tradeable at this point.

Third Base : Lonely for Mike Lowell, the only one on the list. His value to the Red Sox goes way beyond what he does on the field, I doubt seriously the Sox will let him walk.

Outfield : This is where the prize fund lies. Bobby Abreu, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron, Jermaine Dye, Torii Hunter, Geoff Jenkins, Andruw Jones, Corey Patterson and Ichiro Suzuki will all be fighting for the big bucks this off-season. Well, not all.

I picked Bobby Abreu to win the MVP this season, so I'm not looking too good right now. I figured batting between Derek Jeter and ARod he'd see endless fastballs and the entire season would be like an eternal BP session, but what do I know? Still young enough (33 next March) to have commanded a five year plus deal, Abreu likely has played himself into a one year deal at a substantial cut in pay. Going into the season he was the only name on the Yankees list for 2008, not only is he no longer an option, he's not even tradeable at this point.

Eric Byrnes has shed himself of the goofball tag he had in Oakland and has proven himself an All-Star caliber player. Word here in Arizona the Dbacks have no intention of signing Byrnes, so he would be free to play the market. And I think he'll score big, wherever he goes.

The White Sox are defintely sellers at this point, with Dye on their list of soon to be ex-ChiSox. I've heard Arizona, I've heard San Diego, I've heard the Angels. The White Sox aren't interested in getting any veteran contracts in return, the only team who likely can satisfy their need for younger players is the Diamondbacks.

While he likely won't get the most play or the biggest contract, Torii Hunter should have enough offers to make him happy. I haven't heard anything about him being disallusioned with playing in Minnesota, and the Twins certainly are an up and coming team. Then again, I have him the most likely to be traded on this list, with the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers topping the teams interested.

Andruw Jones is in the same boat as Abreu, if not worse. Jones is just 30 years old, is putting on weight faster than Oprah, and has been showing signs of decline for at least the past two seasons. Having recently earned ten and five rights, Jones has a full no trade, so unless the light goes off and realizes a trade is his only option of saving his season, then he will be in the one year, low dollar neighborhood as Abreu.

Jenkins, Patterson and Cameron live in the basement in this group of high rise talent. Jenkins is gone from Milwaukee, Patterson may stay in Baltimore although not by choice, and Cameron is a good fit for the Padres so may stay there if he gets at least three years.

Contrary to what some people think, I have a feeling Ichiro won't get many offers, in part because there may only be six or seven teams who can afford him. He loves Seattle, the Mariners are finally contenders, and as the Japanese all are, is extremely loyal. That said, any number of big budget teams could make him an offer he couldn't refuse.

Most likely to be traded before the deadline? Hunter and Dye. Least likely? Bobby Abreu and Jones. Prediction? Ichiro signs a seven year, $100 million deal with............the Red Sox.

Starting Pitchers : No one on this list, with the exception of Buehrle would make any team start writing their letters to Santa Claus. Bartolo Colon, Jon Lieber, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz,  and Jake Westbrook are either really, really old, or really, really average. Colon has been hurt, Schilling is out until after the deadline, at least according to him, Lieber was demoted to the bullpen by the team with one of the worst starting staffs in all baseball, Rogers has made two starts since returning from a Spring Training injury, Smotz is nothing more than a number four, and Westbrook wishes he was.

Buerhle is the only one on the list likely to be traded, most of the guys on the list will end up with one or two year deals but nothing more. Like I said, they're old and average.

Relievers : The reasons above are why some of these guys will score big, even though they're nothing special in their own right. Francisco Cordero, Trevor Hoffman, Jason Isringhausen, Todd Jones, Scott Linebrink, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera and Bob Wickman top the closer list. Making a bet with myself right now? Nathan, Rivera, Hoffman, Cordero stay. Izzy, Todd Jones, and Wickman may be trade bait, likely get little or no action on the market. The guy who'll score big time? Linebrink. Stuck behind Hoffman in San Diego, he has killer stuff and is a star in the making.