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BaseRuns Predicted Final Standings - July 9, 2008
Wondering where the IPR went? Well, unfortunately I misplaced the spreadsheet that calculates it, and I really don't feel like programming all of those pesky web queries again, so it looks like the IPR is dead... for now.
Luckily, regular, raw Base Runs are much easier to calculate, because they don't require the parsing of the 2008 MLB schedule or >1000 iterations to arrive at an expected winning percentage. They're not adjusted for schedule, which makes them less than ideal for power rankings, but we can use them to project the rest of the season, if we make the assumption that a team's SOS going forward will be roughly the same as their SOS in the past (which I think is essentially true). In other words, we can plug in a team's BaseRuns winning percentage ("pW%") as their expected WPct in the future, and combine that with their actual W-L record so far to arrive at a set of expected end-of-season standings ("pW-pL"). Here goes:
+ = Division winner * = Wild card NL East W L WL% GB pW% pW pL Phildlpa+ 48 43 0.527 -- 0.543 87 75 NewYorkM 46 44 0.511 1.5 0.514 83 79 Atlanta 43 48 0.473 5 0.570 83 79 Florida 46 44 0.511 1.5 0.473 80 82 Washngtn 34 57 0.374 14 0.360 60 102 NL Central W L WL% GB pW% pW pL ChicagoC+ 54 36 0.600 -- 0.606 98 64 St.Louis* 51 40 0.560 3.5 0.539 89 73 Milwkee 50 40 0.556 4 0.491 85 77 Cincnnti 43 48 0.473 11.5 0.421 73 89 Pittsbgh 42 47 0.472 11.5 0.386 70 92 Houston 41 50 0.451 13.5 0.407 70 92 NL West W L WL% GB pW% pW pL Arizona+ 45 45 0.500 -- 0.534 83 79 LosAngls 44 46 0.489 1 0.505 80 82 SanFranc 39 51 0.433 6 0.455 72 90 Colorado 38 53 0.418 7.5 0.474 72 90 SanDiego 36 55 0.396 9.5 0.462 69 93 NL Division Series: ChicagoC vs. Arizona Philadelphia vs. St. Louis AL East W L WL% GB pW% pW pL TampaBay+ 55 34 0.618 -- 0.606 99 63 BostonRS* 54 39 0.581 3 0.617 97 65 NewYorkY 48 42 0.533 7.5 0.541 87 75 Toronto 43 47 0.478 12.5 0.542 82 80 Bltmore 44 44 0.500 10.5 0.477 79 83 AL Central W L WL% GB pW% pW pL ChicagoW+ 52 37 0.584 -- 0.602 96 66 Minnesta 50 40 0.556 2.5 0.471 84 78 Detroit 45 44 0.506 7 0.531 84 78 KansasCy 40 51 0.440 13 0.434 71 91 Clvlnd 37 52 0.416 15 0.430 68 94 AL West W L WL% GB pW% pW pL LA of AN+ 54 36 0.600 -- 0.500 90 72 Oakland 49 41 0.544 5 0.571 90 72 Texas 47 44 0.516 7.5 0.514 84 78 Seattle 35 55 0.389 19 0.434 66 96 AL Division Series: Tampa Bay vs. LA of Anaheim ChicagoW vs. Boston
