Larry J, LaDainian or Shaun?

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This morning I awoke from my baseball-induced hangover and realized that all is not lost. Sure, my Red Sox have, all of the sudden, become the most difficult team to watch in all of baseball. Swept by the lowly Royals? Swept at home by the "mighty" Yankees? And well on their way to getting swept by the Angels? Time to panic, right? Wrong! Time to turn my attention to football! And the sorry chumps in my Fantasy Football Leagues won't even know what hit them! After all, with no baseball playoffs this year, I'll have nothing to divert my attention.

My draft is this Sunday, so I got to thinking: who would I take with the number one pick? That is a question that has more variables this year than years previous. There are actually three legitmate candidates in standard-format leagues. They are: Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Shaun Alexander. Here's how I rank them (from 3 to 1):

#3 - Shaun Alexander <stats> Player=Shaun Alexander Sport=NFL Years=2005 </stats>
In 2005, Alexander led the Seattle Seahawks to the Super Bowl and was awarded the NFL MVP Award. He scored 28 total touchdowns, an NFL record. He also won the rushing title with 1,880 yards.

UPSIDE: He is Seattle's main offensive weapon and he has never missed an NFL game. His three year totals for rushes (326-353-370) and yards (1,435-1,696-1,880) continue to trend upward. And unlike the trend with more and more NFL teams, Alexander does not give away the team's goal line carries. And as a result, he has averaged 21 touchdowns over the last three years. He breaks the "big run" as often as any other back. In fact, last year, he led the league with 54 rushes of ten yards or more.

DOWNSIDE: Age. He'll be 29 when the season starts. And it is a widely-held belief that an NFL running back's career ends at 30. His record-setting MVP numbers in '05 were put up during a contract year. Will he perform to the same level with the same motivation even though he inked a deal with the Seahawks in the off-season? The Seahawks lost Pro Bowl offensive lineman and vocal team leader Steve Hutchinson to free agency. The O-Line is still good, but is it as good? His three year totals in receptions (42-23-15) has continued to decline every year. And with weapons such as Darrell Jackson, Bobby Engram, and the addition of Nate Burleson to Matt Hasselbeck's arsenal, there's no reason to expect that trend to cease.
Oh yeah, and there's this little thing known as The Madden Curse.

PREDICTION: 1,550 yards rushing, 25 catches, 22 total touchdowns.

#2 - LaDainian Tomlinson <stats> Player=LaDainian Tomlinson Sport=NFL Years=2005 </stats>
2005 was an excellent year for LT. He showed increases in his rushing yardage, his yards-per-carry, and his touchdowns over 2004. He actually increased his versatility, as he added the halfback pass to his repratoire. And who wouldn't like to get three touchdown passes from their running back?

UPSIDE: Touches. LT is going to be on the field for almost every play the Chargers run. His touches over the last three years: 413-392-390. And he's still in his prime (albeit the back end of his prime) at 27 years old. Like Alexander, Tomlinson stays on the field in goal line situations. His elusiveness is unmatched and his speed is deceptive. But his main weapon is his versatility. In 2003, he had 100 catches! While that number has since dropped, he has caught over 50 balls in each of the last two seasons. And first-year starting quarterback Philip Rivers may need to use LT quite a bit as a drop-off or outlet as he adjusts to NFL blitzes - specifically early in the season.

DOWNSIDE: Overuse. Last year, his production slowed quite a bit in the second half, as he didn't top 100 in any of his last 5 starts. With an inexperienced Rivers behind center and an average wide receiver corps, defenses will likely gameplan for Tomlinson more than they did when Drew Brees was the team's quarterback. San Diego's offensive line is good, but not great, and may be prone to mental lapses and fatigue as the season wears on.

PREDICTION: 1,490 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 24 total touchdowns.

#1 - Larry Johnson <stats> Player=Larry Johnson Sport=NFL Years=2005 </stats>
2005 was Larry Johnson's breakout year. Thanks to lingering injuries to Priest Holmes, LJ became Kansas City's unquestioned starting tailback in Week 6. And even though he only started 9 games, Johnson ran for 1,750 yards and 20 touchdowns.

UPSIDE: This guy can flat out run the rock. And having only logged 140 NFL carries before last season, he is undoubtedly the freshest of these three. He can outrun linebackers, make safties miss, and run over cornerbacks. He topped 100 yards in each of his nine starts and scored multiple touchdowns in five of the team's final six games. He topped the 200-yard mark twice last year. He also caught 33 passes last year, for 343 yards. And like the other two guys, he will likely get most of the goal line carries - especially as Priest Holmes' health and future remain uncertain.

DOWNSIDE: The offensive line. Both perennial Pro-Bowler Willie Roaf, and fullback extraordinaire, Tony Richardson, retired unexpectedly over the last few months, and Pro-Bowler Will Shields is trying to battle through a lingering high-ankle sprain. Tight End Tony Gonzalez will be relied upon to block a lot more, and he is not a great blocker. This factors will definitely take their toll on LJ over the course of the season. The best thing that can happen for LJ owners is for Priest Holmes to get healthy, get touches, and spell him during games to keep his legs fresh. But that remains far from a certainty right now, as Holmes may miss the first six weeks. And coach Herm Edwards has expressed concern about Johnson's distaste for pass blocking.

PREDICTION: 1,610 yards rushing, 55 receptions, 26 total touchdowns.

If I end up with the first overall pick, I'm going with Johnson. But truth be told, I'd rather get the #3 pick, snag Alexander, and get an earlier pick on the way back.

Who would you take at #1?