Kelsdad's 2007 American League Preview
| 10
|
by user kelsdad
For the first time in recent memory, I had a hard time making a decision on not one, but two, divisions. The Kenny Rogers situation made one a bit easier but I'm just going to wing it on the other one.
Eastern Division :
1) New York Yankees: The Yankees have the best offense, the Red Sox the pitching, and the Blue Jays have the best balance of the two. The big deal about Carl Pavano starting opening day is nonsense, it's his turn in the rotation. Regardless of their pitching situation, they'll score enough runs to ensure another AL East title. The postseason is another matter.
2) Boston Red Sox: The Sox are a fragile team, Jason Varitek is 34 and coming off knee surgery, Manny Ramirez 35 and chose not to have surgery, he could break down at any minute. J.D. Drew, Coco Crisp and Mike Lowell have histories of injury problems, and are starting a rookie at second base. If everyone stays healthy throughout the season the Red Sox could easily win this division, but being healthy only counts in October. April will be a transition month for Daisuke Matsuzaka, and anything they get from Jon Lester will be a bonus.
3) Toronto Blue Jays: If A.J. Burnett and Roy Halladay get 65 starts between the two of them the Jays will make the postseason. Frank Thomas should provide some insurance for Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus, and Alex Rios was well on the way to his breakout season before missing six weeks with a staph infection. Will stay close all season.
4) Baltimore Orioles: Erik Bedard has established himself as a top pitcher, and Adam Loewen isn't far behind. Beyond these two the pitching is questionable, and despite improving the bullpen, the O's won't win many high scoring games. The addition of Aubrey Huff should help the offense considerably, but there were more holes in the lineup than have been filled.
5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Impressive young talent at the big league level and the top minor league farm system. So why will the Rays finish last again? Because Alex Rodriguez makes more by himself than the Rays entire roster. When the Rays decide to spend some green and get some pitching to help Scott Kazmir, the Rays will immediately become competitive.
Central Division
1) Chicago White Sox: Like the Blue Jays in the East, the ChiSox have the best balance of offense and pitching in the division. There are certainly unforeseen circumstances which could change the outlook of the division, but since the season hasn't started yet I'll go with Chicago.
2) Cleveland Indians: Move Grady Sizemore to the third spot and they would be my World Series pick. Maybe when Eric Wedge is fired in June and replaced with Buck Showalter will that finally happen. Big time offense, too many pitching questions, especially in the bullpen. If Joe Borowski can't close, he'll be replaced by the immortal Tony Sipp. Enough said.
3) Detroit Tigers: Led all of Major League baseball in pitching last season. Even without the loss of Kenny Rogers until at least the All-Star break would be unlikely to do so again. Big time star in Carlos Guillen and the addition of Gary Sheffield helps, but there were many overachievers in the Tigers lineup last season.
4) Minnesota Twins: All I heard the last month was Matt Garza, well, hope he does well in Triple-A. An overachieving MVP, a catcher who won the batting title, and arguably the best pitching prospect of the last 20 years having Tommy John surgery all point to an unlikely repeat of 2006 numbers. Johan Santana will only start about 35 times, which leaves 60 starts for Sidney Ponson and Carlos Silva. Good thing for the Twins there are five teams in this division.
5) Kansas City Royals: Bad news for the Twins, the Royals will be the Major Leagues most improved team this season, 75 wins is likely and a .500 record possible. With Mark Teahen moving to the outfield and rookie phenom Alex Gordon taking over at third, the Royals have solidified two positions which had been recent weaknesses. The return of Zach Greinke should help the rotation and if new closer Octavio Dotel can stay healthy for a full season there is hope on the horizon for the Royals.
West Division
WarningWhat you are about to read is not a cheesy sports joke
1) Seattle Mariners. I have a couple buddies in the Mariners organization and we went out for a couple beers shortly after spring training started. All they wanted to talk about was Felix Hernandez. He's lost 25 pounds, is throwing 97-98 with no effort, his slider is unhittable, and is working on a change-up. Good enough for me. Contrary to what I've read, the acquisition of Jeff Weaver should help, he pitched in the four spot for the Cardinals and was fine, he'll be the fourth starter in Seattle. No pressure, just pitch.
2) Los Angeles Angels: From top to bottom, the best pitching staff in baseball. Unfortunately, you can't pitch if you're on the DL. The Angels offensively will have trouble scoring runs and the loss of Chone Figgins hurts them more than it should. If the Angels are within five games when Jered Weaver, Bartolo Colon and Figgins return, they have as good a shot as anyone. If not, might as well call up Brandon Wood and let him play.
3) Oakland A's: The key is Rich Harden, if he gets 35 starts and comes close to what Barry Zito has done the A's have as good a shot as anyone. If not, then forget about them, as they won't score as many runs as in the past although Mike Piazza will post better numbers than Frank Thomas did last year. It's everyone else who has issues, and losing Mark Kotsay is huge.
4) Texas Rangers: Mark Teixeira and Michael Young will both post MVP type numbers, and it won't matter. Their pitching is awful.
MVP : Bobby Abreu. Between Jeter and ARod and in a contract year. Big numbers.
Cy Young : Felix Hernandez.
Rookie of the Year : Alex Gordon
Playoffs : Yankees over Mariners, Red Sox over White Sox. Red Sox over Yankees
As a Yankee fan, this hurts way more than you can imagine, but the 2007 World Champions will be the Boston Red Sox. As I mentioned above, health only matters in October. In a re-match of 1986, the Sox this time will beat the New York Mets in a six-game series. Game six will come down to a save situation, and figuring he won't get away with it twice, Curt Schilling will take the famous red Sharpie out of his locker and draw a stain on Jonathan Papelbon's sock, who then comes in and gets the save. After the game, the Red Sox announce they will have their own Monument Park in Fenway, with the plaques being hung on the Green Monster, with Bill Buckner and Calvin Schiraldi being the first two former Sox players honored.
Enjoy the season everyone, and Play Ball!!
