Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot
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by user Joebook
Since December 31 is the deadline for voters to turn in their ballot for the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame, I figured it was time to do a full report on who will, should and won't get in.
There are 32 names on the ballot this year, including 17 players making their first appearance. Only Bruce Sutter was elected this year, so 15 players carried over to 2007. Among those knocking on the door last year was Jim Rice and Goose Gossage, who fell 53 and 54 votes short respectively for enshrinement.
Let's break down the candidates and their credentials --
Automatics
Tony Gwynn -- Among the greatest hitters in baseball history, Gwynn won the NL batting crown eight times. He ranks 17th all-time with 3141 hits, and he ranked in the top-10 in hitting every season that he qualified. His career .338 batting average is 19th in history. Gwynn also won five Gold Gloves, and played in 15 All-Star games.
Cal Ripken, Jr. -- Ripken was the ultimate in longevity, playing in a Major League record 2632 consecutive games, a record that most deem unbreakable. He is one of only eight players in baseball history with 3000+ hits and 400+ home runs. Ripken is a two-time AL MVP, and was named to 19 consecutive All-Star games. The 1982 AL Rookie of the Year award winner is one of the finest shortstops in the history of the game.
Should Be, But Won't Be
Mark McGwire -- With the recent steroid scandal coming to light, McGwire has taken a tight-lipped approach, which might keep him out. His 583 home runs rank 7th all-time, and he played in 12 All-Star games. He is one of baseball's greatest sluggers, and along with Sammy Sosa, revitalized a game that America turned against following the 1994 strike. If the voters don't agree that Big Mac belongs, then a new standard will be set for players from our era. Based on what we know now, he undoubtedly deserves a spot in Cooperstown.
Jim Rice -- This is his 13th year on the ballot, and it's a crime he is still waiting to be elected. Rice was one of the most feared hitters of the 70s and 80s, and won the 1978 AL MVP award after a season in which he led the AL in home runs, RBI, slugging, hits, triples and total bases. The eight-time All-Star ranks 42nd in career RBI and 52nd in home runs. He led the American League in home runs three times, and is the only player in history to record three consecutive seasons of 35+ home runs and 200+ hits. He clearly deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame.
Goose Gossage -- After watching Bruce Sutter get elected in 2006, Gossage has a chance to join the ranks of the greats. Gossage was one of the earliest elite closers. He had 20+ saves in ten different seasons, and led the league three times. The nine-time All-Star ranks 10th all-time with 1002 games pitched, and 17th with 310 saves. Gossage would get my vote more for his revolutionizaton of the position than his statistics.
Lee Smith -- I can't understand how a player of Smith's caliber is not in the Hall. His career record of 478 saves was passed this year by Trevor Hoffman, and his other career numbers are phenomenal. He led the league in saves five times, and posted 25+ saves for 13 consecutive seasons. The seven-time All-Star is ranked 8th in career games pitched. He should be enshrined next to Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers.
Andre Dawson -- "Hawk" was one of the most versatile players in baseball history. Dawson was the 1977 NL Rookie of the Year, and 1987 NL MVP. He won eight Gold Glove Awards, and had 13 seasons with double digit home runs and steals. He ranks 24th all-time in total bases, 35th in home runs and 25th in RBI. During his prime, he was a phenomenal talent, and deserves a spot in the Hall.
Albert Belle -- I've had many arguments against this, but his numbers paint an interesting picture. Injuries forced him to quit after ten full seasons, but he was an incredible hitter during those years. Per 162 games played, Belle averaged 40 HR and 130RBI. He led the American League in home runs once, and RBI and total bases three times. He posted six seasons of 30+HR and 115+RBI, and had nine consecutive years of 100+RBI. Had he not been forced to retire at 33, his career body of work could have been elite. As it is now, it's enough to get into the Hall.
Steve Garvey -- Garvey is another guy that slipped through the cracks. He is on the ballot for the 15th time, which means his fate will be in the hands of the Veterans Administration if he doesn't make it this year, which he won't. Garvey was the 1974 NL MVP and played in ten All-Star games. Besides finishing with six seasons of 200+ hits, he was one of the greatest defensive players ever. He holds the Major League record for most consecutive games by a first baseman without an error at 193. He is also the all-time NLCS leader in home runs and RBI. Garvey played every single day, was a superstar, and deserves his spot in Cooperstown.
On the Fence
Jose Canseco -- If he hadn't admitted using steroids, he might have been elected. His career numbers are good enough, and I still think he'll get 20% or more of the voters to choose him. His 462 home runs ranks 30th in history, and he was baseball's first 40-40 man, accomplishing the feat in 1988, when he won the AL MVP award.
Harold Baines -- Baines played for 22 seasons, and racked up impressive career totals. He ranks 40th all-time in hits, 30th in total bases and 23rd in RBI. He had 11 seasons with 20+ HR, and hit .300 or better eight times. He was a very good player for a long time, but not good enough for Cooperstown.
Bert Blyleven -- The Harold Baines of pitching... Blyleven came closest in 2006 out of all pitchers not elected. He ranks 5th all-time in strikeouts, 7th in innings pitched and 25th in wins. Blyleven pitched for 22 years, and has a career 2.47 ERA in six career postseason starts. Longevity lends to his career numbers, but he wasn't a Hall of Fame player.
Dale Murphy -- Had a very good career, but not Hall-worthy. Murphy won the NL MVP award in 1982 and '83, and played in seven All-Star games. He won five Gold Glove Awards in the outfield, and hit 20+ HR 12 times. He ranks 43rd on the all-time home run list. Murphy is another example of an excellent player who falls just short.
Dave Parker -- He falls into the same category with Dale Murphy and Harold Baines. Parker was the 1978 NL MVP, and played in seven All-Star games. He won the NL batting title in 1977 and '78, and had six seasons of .300 or better. He ranks 47th all-time in RBI, and 55th in hits. A great player, but not a Hall of Famer.
Don Mattingly -- Donnie Ballgame was a staple at first base for the Yankees for 14 years. He won the 1985 AL MVP, and played in six All-Star games. Mattingly won nine Gold Glove Awards, and hit .300 or better seven times. Between 1984-86, he recorded 656 hits, 368 RBI and 145 doubles. Another five years, and he's in the Hall of Fame.
Good, But No Chance
Bret Saberhagen -- Saberhagen won the AL Cy Young Award in 1985 and '89, and pitched in three All-Star games. In 1994, he had 14 wins and 13 walks for the season. He finished his career with a record of 167-117.
Jack Morris -- Most remember him for his heroics in the 1991 World Series, pitching a 10-inning shutout in Game 7. Morris led all Major League pitchers in the 1980s with 162 wins. He ranks 31st all-time in wins, and 39th in strikeouts.
Alan Trammell -- Trammell hit .300 or better seven times, and played in six All-Star games. He won four Gold Glove Awards at shortstop, and wasn the MVP of the 1984 World Series, during which he hit .450 with six RBI.
Tommy John -- He pitched for 26 seasons, and ranks 24th all-time in wins, and 18th in innings pitched. He has a 6-3 record with a 2.65 ERA in 13 career postseason starts. He won 10+ games 17 times.
Orel Hershiser -- Hershiser won the 1988 NL Cy Young Award, and holds the Major League record with 59 consecutive scoreless innings. He also won the NLCS and World Series MVP in 1988 for the Dodgers. He has an 8-3 record with a 2.59 ERA in 18 postseason starts.
Dave Concepcion -- He won five Gold Glove Awards and played in nine All-Star games. Concepcion was a phenomenal defensive shortstop, and hit .300 or better three times. He played all 19 seasons with the Reds.
Eric Davis -- Davis was a versatile player, becoming only the second player ever with a season featuring 20 HR and 80 SB. He won three Gold Glove Awards, and had eight seasons of 20+ HR.
Tony Fernandez -- Fernandez was a standout shortstop for 18 seasons. He played in five All-Star games and won four Gold Glove Awards. He batted ,395 in 38 World Series at-bats, and had seven seasons of 20+ SB.
Why Am I On The Ballot?
Dante Bichette -- He was great in Colorado, garbage outside it.
Bobby Bonilla -- The six-time All-Star was plagued by inconsistency and injury.
Scott Brosius -- Seriously? Scott Brosius?
Jay Buhner -- He was fun to watch when healthy, which was never.
Ken Caminiti -- Admitted drug user won the 1996 NL MVP.
Wally Joyner -- He had six seasons of 150+ hits. So does everyone else.
Paul O'Neill -- Is this a 1998 Yankees reunion?
Devon White -- He won seven Gold Glove Awards, but that's about it.
Bobby Witt -- 142-157 with a 4.83 ERA... you make the call.
