Giving The Odds On The NCAA Tournament (Sweet 16 Edition)
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by user Davis21wylie
And the Madness marches on. Last weekend we saw the field get cut to just 16 teams, and while no true Cinderellas will be making their way to St. Louis, San Jose, East Rutherford, or San Antonio, it is just as clear that there are no heavy favorites emerging, either. Yes, all four of the Number Ones have survived to the second weekend, but none (except North Carolina) had a particularly easy go of it in the Round of 32 -- especially Ohio State, who had to stage a miracle comeback just to force overtime against a stubborn Xavier team. And -- stop me if you've heard this one before -- never before have all four top seeds made the Final 4. So something's got to give this weekend. Who will be sent packing?
Here's the usual rundown: Ken Pomeroy runs a groundbreaking website where he uses advanced statistical analysis to predict the winners of college basketball games. And, as promised, I'm bringing you the fruits of his labors, updated to include last weekend's results. Yes, it's true that there are no guarantees in College Basketball, but Ken's work gets you as close as you can to predicting future results. So let's make with the odds...
Locks: None to speak of, although UNC over USC looks like a solid pick. Don't be fooled by Southern Illinois' poor odds (15.9%) vs. Kansas, though -- the Salukis are the most consistent team in D1, while the Jayhawks are one of the least consistent, meaning a typical steady effort by SIU could pay big dividends if Kansas underachieves. Also, note the differences in pace: Kansas (69.9 possessions/G) is one of the faster teams in CBB, while Sou. Illinois (60.5) is one of the slowest. If SIU controls tempo and Kansas has an off game, it's upset city, baby!!
Upset Specials: I kind of gave it away above, but I'm calling Southern Illinois over Kansas in a shocker.
Best Games: Texas A&M-Memphis should be an epic between two really evenly-matched teams. The Howland Bowl also offers a pretty compelling matchup between two hard-nosed defensive teams. But, really, all of these Sweet 16 games should be eminently watchable, with the possible exception of Oregon-UNLV (I only say that because I absolutely freaking hate UNLV, Lon Kruger, and Kruger's son, who bent NCAA rules to play for them this year). Go Ducks!
As usual, tune in before The Elite Eight® for the latest odds on the NCAA Tournament, and be sure to visit Ken's blog for further predictions and analysis. Peace out!
