Giving The Odds On The NCAA Tournament (Elite 8 Edition)
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by user Davis21wylie
Just call it "March Un-Madness". Despite the NCAA Tournament's penchant for upsets, shockers, and Cinderellas, practically all of the pre-tournament favorites are still standing two weeks later -- the remaining field consists of all four number one seeds, three number twos, and one number three; Bo's Badgers are the only 2-seed not to advance to the round of eight. But the so-called "Doomsday Scenario" of an all-number-ones Final Four still isn't a lock -- remember, in a single 40-minute game, anything can happen, especially between teams this evenly-matched... Yeah, right, I'll be sure to keep telling myself that as all of the upset specials on my bracket go down the drain.
So here's the usual spiel: Ken Pomeroy runs a groundbreaking website where he uses advanced statistical analysis to predict the winners of college basketball games. And, as promised, I'm bringing you the fruits of his labors, updated to include Thursday and Friday's results. Ken's work gets you as close as you can to predicting future results -- although, so far, going strictly by the committee's seedings wouldn't have been a bad decision, either. Anyway, let's make with the odds...
Midwest Regional Final: Florida vs. Oregon
Stat Pack: Florida
Record vs. D-1: 29-5
Luck: +0.012 National Rank=126 (+0.4 wins)
Raw Tempo: 67.0 poss/40 min National Rank=159
Adj Tempo: 66.3 poss/40 min National Rank=186
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 118.9 ( 1) 92.0 ( 10)
Adj Efficiency : 123.8 ( 1) 87.2 ( 12)
Effective FG% : 59.5 ( 1) 44.9 ( 17)
Turnover Pct. : 20.5 (125) 19.4 (264)
Off. Rebound% : 37.5 ( 45) 28.6 ( 10)
Free Throw Rate: 29.0 ( 62) 28.0 ( 20)
3-Point FG% : 40.3 ( 13) 28.9 ( 2)
2-Point FG% : 59.1 ( 1) 45.6 ( 66)
Free Throw Pct.: 69.2 (169) 64.9 ( 20)
Block Pct. : 6.9 ( 34) 12.3 ( 44)
Steal Pct. : 10.5 (219) 10.2 (130)
3PA/FGA : 33.3 (176) 30.9 ( 68)
A/FGM : 55.6 (158) 46.0 ( 12)
No Player Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss OR% DR% ARate TORate %Bloc %Stls 11 Taurean Green Jr 36 81.7 114.5 20.6 1.0 7.1 18.9 22.8 0.1 2.1 12 Lee Humphrey Sr 36 74.1 123.9 13.4 1.5 3.6 7.6 16.4 0.0 1.0 42 Al Horford Jr 34 64.5 123.0 23.6 12.4 26.7 14.6 15.3 6.7 1.8 2 Corey Brewer Jr 33 64.0 109.5 25.7 5.6 13.3 20.1 20.3 1.1 4.0 13 Joakim Noah Jr 36 63.5 114.8 25.7 13.5 24.4 17.2 22.5 7.3 2.6 15 Walter Hodge So 36 46.2 114.8 15.8 0.8 6.5 14.2 24.6 0.2 1.4 32 Chris Richard Sr 36 45.7 115.8 15.9 9.7 13.0 3.9 21.9 1.7 1.1 21 Dan Werner Fr 36 23.5 96.0 15.9 6.6 9.9 14.3 17.4 0.9 1.6 23 J. Mitchell Fr 30 12.9 96.6 15.1 6.4 16.3 9.5 16.8 1.1 3.8 34 M. Speights Fr 32 12.7 121.3 30.4 26.9 27.8 2.7 18.0 8.3 2.6
Stat Pack: Oregon
Record vs. D-1: 26-7
Luck: +0.033 National Rank=74 (+1.1 wins)
Raw Tempo: 66.7 poss/40 min National Rank=171
Adj Tempo: 66.7 poss/40 min National Rank=167
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 113.1 ( 16) 98.0 ( 75)
Adj Efficiency : 119.9 ( 8) 93.2 ( 50)
Effective FG% : 53.4 ( 45) 49.0 (120)
Turnover Pct. : 18.5 ( 39) 21.5 (148)
Off. Rebound% : 35.5 ( 89) 32.1 (100)
Free Throw Rate: 24.9 (180) 27.2 ( 12)
3-Point FG% : 39.1 ( 27) 31.1 ( 18)
2-Point FG% : 49.6 (136) 50.2 (213)
Free Throw Pct.: 75.7 ( 11) 68.8 (142)
Block Pct. : 12.2 (319) 5.4 (303)
Steal Pct. : 8.5 ( 60) 10.2 (138)
3PA/FGA : 42.2 ( 29) 33.6 (152)
A/FGM : 53.4 (213) 50.3 ( 48)
No Player Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss OR% DR% ARate TORate %Blocks %Stls 0 Aaron Brooks Sr 33 86.4 117.9 24.0 3.0 11.5 23.8 16.9 0.5 2.1 4 Bryce Taylor Jr 35 81.3 126.6 19.4 6.1 10.9 10.6 13.6 0.6 1.9 10 Maarty Leunen Jr 35 80.0 120.0 17.7 9.0 22.0 12.5 16.1 2.0 2.6 12 Tajuan Porter Fr 33 75.5 109.0 21.5 1.5 5.8 12.2 21.1 0.0 1.6 1 Malik Hairston Jr 25 51.3 115.2 20.4 10.9 13.5 15.1 17.3 2.1 1.3 25 C. Oguchi Jr 30 35.5 90.7 19.9 5.1 7.5 8.8 19.1 0.9 2.6 50 Joevan Catron Fr 34 30.8 96.3 18.7 11.5 17.8 11.1 20.6 1.0 2.5 42 Adam Zahn Sr 30 20.9 97.7 16.8 9.5 16.8 3.8 21.6 0.4 1.8 13 Churchill Odia So 16 11.1 96.7 13.2 1.6 10.0 15.2 17.3 0.0 1.9
West Regional Final: Kansas vs. UCLA
Stat Pack: Kansas
Record vs. D-1: 30-4
Luck: +0.031 National Rank=76 (+1.1 wins)
Raw Tempo: 69.7 poss/40 min National Rank=75
Adj Tempo: 69.9 poss/40 min National Rank=59
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 112.4 ( 22) 87.1 ( 1)
Adj Efficiency : 118.8 ( 12) 82.0 ( 1)
Effective FG% : 54.8 ( 16) 43.1 ( 3)
Turnover Pct. : 19.7 ( 83) 23.4 ( 47)
Off. Rebound% : 37.8 ( 39) 30.2 ( 46)
Free Throw Rate: 24.3 (199) 33.9 (106)
3-Point FG% : 39.4 ( 23) 31.5 ( 26)
2-Point FG% : 53.2 ( 25) 40.7 ( 3)
Free Throw Pct.: 66.3 (259) 67.1 ( 65)
Block Pct. : 7.0 ( 35) 18.1 ( 3)
Steal Pct. : 9.4 (132) 12.8 ( 18)
3PA/FGA : 26.4 (314) 36.6 (250)
A/FGM : 58.5 ( 92) 52.7 ( 99)
No Player Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss OR% DR% ARate TORate %Bloc %Stls 25 Brandon Rush So 36 80.3 109.2 20.6 5.7 12.9 10.4 16.5 3.0 0.7 15 Mario Chalmers So 36 72.0 114.7 20.0 1.0 10.2 18.8 21.7 1.7 4.9 30 Julian Wright So 36 68.1 107.1 23.6 11.0 20.6 14.3 21.3 5.6 2.8 3 R. Robinson Jr 35 67.5 111.6 16.3 4.2 8.1 24.6 22.1 2.0 3.8 4 Sherron Collins Fr 36 55.6 115.5 20.9 1.7 9.1 23.7 19.8 0.0 1.8 0 Darrell Arthur Fr 36 46.6 108.3 25.3 13.0 14.7 4.4 15.6 9.0 2.8 24 Sasha Kaun Jr 33 40.2 104.9 18.0 10.8 13.7 4.1 15.7 9.0 1.2 32 Darnell Jackson Jr 36 37.7 110.2 19.3 15.8 20.9 3.9 19.4 4.3 1.4 5 Rodrick Stewart Jr 28 11.1 97.0 12.8 5.1 11.0 17.6 19.4 0.0 2.1
Stat Pack: UCLA
Record vs. D-1: 25-5
Luck: +0.016 National Rank=118 (+0.5 wins)
Raw Tempo: 64.1 poss/40 min National Rank=261
Adj Tempo: 64.1 poss/40 min National Rank=274
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 110.7 ( 32) 92.3 ( 11)
Adj Efficiency : 116.7 ( 23) 84.4 ( 2)
Effective FG% : 53.7 ( 40) 47.3 ( 65)
Turnover Pct. : 18.3 ( 34) 23.0 ( 61)
Off. Rebound% : 34.1 (147) 29.7 ( 33)
Free Throw Rate: 21.9 (273) 29.5 ( 36)
3-Point FG% : 37.4 ( 62) 34.5 (163)
2-Point FG% : 52.5 ( 41) 45.6 ( 70)
Free Throw Pct.: 66.3 (251) 71.1 (269)
Block Pct. : 7.3 ( 58) 8.5 (161)
Steal Pct. : 7.6 ( 20) 11.1 ( 83)
3PA/FGA : 32.5 (190) 27.4 ( 11)
A/FGM : 55.4 (162) 54.9 (162)
No Player Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss OR% DR% ARate TORate %Block %Stls 4 Arron Afflalo Jr 33 82.3 114.5 23.6 1.5 8.5 12.2 13.6 0.8 1.2 2 Darren Collison So 32 79.0 114.1 23.2 1.3 8.0 33.9 23.3 0.3 4.3 23 L. Mbah a Moute So 32 73.5 106.0 18.2 11.0 21.1 11.5 19.4 3.1 3.5 3 Josh Shipp So 32 71.9 112.2 23.5 5.1 10.9 16.7 15.7 0.8 2.5 14 Lorenzo Mata Jr 33 57.7 111.0 15.3 10.3 20.0 2.7 14.7 5.8 1.1 12 Alfred Aboya So 32 41.5 107.5 15.5 14.5 16.8 2.2 17.4 1.8 1.8 20 Michael Roll So 33 41.4 105.7 16.4 1.1 9.9 12.2 13.7 0.6 1.0 0 R. Westbrook Fr 33 23.1 94.3 23.2 3.3 8.0 13.8 19.9 0.4 2.6 13 James Keefe Fr 29 14.3 73.5 15.7 11.2 19.0 4.3 28.9 5.1 1.3 11 Ryan Wright So 26 11.0 94.0 15.4 6.8 15.0 1.2 30.1 1.5 0.0
East Regional Final: North Carolina vs. Georgetown
Stat Pack: North Carolina
Record vs. D-1: 28-6
Luck: -0.049 National Rank=270 (-1.7 wins)
Raw Tempo: 73.6 poss/40 min National Rank=11
Adj Tempo: 73.0 poss/40 min National Rank=9
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 116.6 ( 2) 91.9 ( 9)
Adj Efficiency : 123.7 ( 3) 84.6 ( 3)
Effective FG% : 54.8 ( 15) 46.5 ( 41)
Turnover Pct. : 18.6 ( 48) 21.6 (138)
Off. Rebound% : 39.6 ( 14) 29.6 ( 30)
Free Throw Rate: 27.7 ( 90) 27.9 ( 18)
3-Point FG% : 36.1 (115) 33.3 ( 90)
2-Point FG% : 55.1 ( 11) 44.9 ( 47)
Free Throw Pct.: 70.6 (125) 66.6 ( 55)
Block Pct. : 8.2 (107) 11.1 ( 64)
Steal Pct. : 10.3 (191) 11.1 ( 81)
3PA/FGA : 25.2 (324) 32.8 (125)
A/FGM : 59.0 ( 84) 52.6 ( 93)
No Player Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss OR% DR% ARate TORate %Bloc %Stls 50 T. Hansbrough So 36 74.4 119.7 26.2 12.0 17.0 6.8 13.8 1.6 2.1 34 Brandan Wright Fr 35 65.9 117.9 21.0 8.6 15.8 6.8 15.4 6.5 2.0 5 Ty Lawson Fr 36 62.6 119.1 21.8 3.3 9.2 35.5 21.0 0.3 3.2 2 Wayne Ellington Fr 36 59.3 117.3 21.0 3.5 9.4 15.3 13.5 0.1 1.8 3 Reyshawn Terry Sr 36 54.2 111.4 20.6 6.8 20.2 12.6 23.1 3.0 1.8 1 Marcus Ginyard So 35 40.2 108.9 14.7 10.2 10.0 13.3 25.2 0.9 3.6 14 Danny Green So 35 33.1 112.4 18.3 6.7 14.5 12.2 18.5 4.7 2.4 21 Deon Thompson Fr 36 30.7 102.1 18.3 9.3 11.7 5.8 23.3 3.1 2.1 22 Wes Miller Sr 36 26.3 110.9 12.4 1.2 3.5 15.5 17.2 0.0 1.7 4 Bobby Frasor So 26 19.1 103.0 15.2 0.9 6.4 23.5 25.8 0.0 2.7 32 Alex Stepheson Fr 36 16.1 99.0 18.1 13.7 22.7 2.0 20.5 5.1 0.2 11 Quentin Thomas Jr 25 11.0 81.1 15.6 0.7 15.6 36.8 45.7 1.2 2.0
Stat Pack: Georgetown
Record vs. D-1: 26-6
Luck: +0.007 National Rank=140 (+0.2 wins)
Raw Tempo: 59.5 poss/40 min National Rank=328
Adj Tempo: 59.9 poss/40 min National Rank=328
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 116.0 ( 3) 95.6 ( 41)
Adj Efficiency : 123.7 ( 2) 88.9 ( 18)
Effective FG% : 56.8 ( 4) 44.2 ( 10)
Turnover Pct. : 22.2 (224) 19.7 (249)
Off. Rebound% : 40.7 ( 7) 33.2 (157)
Free Throw Rate: 26.9 (113) 31.4 ( 70)
3-Point FG% : 36.7 ( 93) 30.5 ( 8)
2-Point FG% : 57.7 ( 2) 43.2 ( 15)
Free Throw Pct.: 71.5 (101) 70.2 (229)
Block Pct. : 7.0 ( 41) 15.7 ( 11)
Steal Pct. : 11.4 (283) 8.9 (240)
3PA/FGA : 35.1 (142) 38.5 (295)
A/FGM : 58.5 ( 95) 54.3 (141)
No Player Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss OR% DR% ARate TORate %Block %Stls 21 Jessie Sapp So 34 82.1 107.0 18.6 3.9 11.2 19.7 20.5 0.5 2.6 32 Jeff Green Jr 34 81.6 113.6 25.6 7.2 16.4 21.5 21.3 4.7 1.6 2 J. Wallace Jr 34 79.6 117.1 19.1 2.8 7.8 18.6 26.1 0.2 1.7 55 Roy Hibbert Jr 34 65.7 131.6 22.4 14.2 18.2 8.9 13.6 11.6 1.2 3 DaJuan Summers Fr 34 64.4 102.6 21.6 8.7 9.2 7.7 23.8 2.7 2.1 33 Patrick Ewing Jr 33 34.6 112.7 17.4 8.3 10.2 13.8 23.6 4.3 2.0 5 Jeremiah Rivers Fr 31 26.5 78.8 12.8 2.8 12.3 13.3 38.9 0.7 1.5 0 Marc Egerson 13 23.0 114.3 17.6 6.9 13.9 7.5 14.5 0.0 1.5 1 Vernon Macklin Fr 29 21.2 122.7 15.8 10.5 8.5 11.6 21.9 1.3 0.2 22 Tyler Crawford Jr 27 16.0 98.1 16.3 5.3 17.2 7.9 28.0 0.0 2.4
South Regional Final: Ohio State vs. Memphis
Stat Pack: Ohio State
Record vs. D-1: 30-3
Luck: +0.056 National Rank=36 (+1.9 wins)
Raw Tempo: 65.1 poss/40 min National Rank=233
Adj Tempo: 65.1 poss/40 min National Rank=224
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 114.1 ( 11) 93.3 ( 16)
Adj Efficiency : 121.7 ( 4) 87.4 ( 13)
Effective FG% : 54.0 ( 30) 46.1 ( 36)
Turnover Pct. : 17.7 ( 25) 20.2 (213)
Off. Rebound% : 34.7 (127) 30.9 ( 63)
Free Throw Rate: 24.9 (178) 20.8 ( 2)
3-Point FG% : 37.0 ( 74) 32.8 ( 69)
2-Point FG% : 53.2 ( 28) 44.3 ( 38)
Free Throw Pct.: 69.6 (155) 67.9 ( 99)
Block Pct. : 6.9 ( 30) 16.1 ( 9)
Steal Pct. : 7.7 ( 23) 10.2 (139)
3PA/FGA : 36.9 (103) 37.4 (272)
A/FGM : 58.1 (104) 54.5 (145)
No Player Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss OR% DR% ARate TORate %Block %Stls 14 Jamar Butler Jr 35 77.2 116.2 15.6 1.6 6.2 21.3 19.8 0.4 2.0 1 Mike Conley Fr 35 77.2 117.1 21.2 2.1 10.1 38.0 20.4 1.0 4.4 12 Ron Lewis Sr 35 70.0 109.2 21.6 2.8 11.3 9.2 16.4 1.5 1.9 20 Greg Oden Fr 28 58.7 115.2 26.1 15.2 23.3 5.3 16.4 12.8 1.1 31 Daequan Cook Fr 35 52.0 103.2 25.7 4.6 21.2 11.1 17.8 1.5 2.1 3 Ivan Harris Sr 35 50.6 116.3 17.9 5.9 12.5 8.0 9.6 1.6 0.7 45 Othello Hunter Jr 35 45.0 122.6 17.2 15.7 14.4 3.0 12.3 6.7 1.5 23 David Lighty Fr 35 39.9 84.1 17.6 5.6 10.4 10.7 27.2 1.2 1.7 42 M. Terwilliger Jr 35 27.2 98.5 12.6 7.3 11.9 3.6 17.7 4.7 1.6
Stat Pack: Memphis
Record vs. D-1: 30-3
Luck: +0.023 National Rank=95 (+0.8 wins)
Raw Tempo: 70.4 poss/40 min National Rank=58
Adj Tempo: 68.9 poss/40 min National Rank=81
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 112.4 ( 21) 88.2 ( 2)
Adj Efficiency : 116.2 ( 26) 85.8 ( 7)
Effective FG% : 51.8 ( 93) 43.4 ( 4)
Turnover Pct. : 18.6 ( 43) 24.0 ( 35)
Off. Rebound% : 39.6 ( 13) 31.8 ( 86)
Free Throw Rate: 26.5 (123) 41.6 (259)
3-Point FG% : 34.8 (166) 31.4 ( 24)
2-Point FG% : 51.6 ( 62) 41.9 ( 6)
Free Throw Pct.: 62.0 (322) 67.2 ( 69)
Block Pct. : 9.8 (245) 15.4 ( 12)
Steal Pct. : 8.0 ( 29) 13.4 ( 13)
3PA/FGA : 35.3 (138) 28.9 ( 33)
A/FGM : 52.8 (227) 50.6 ( 54)
No Player Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss OR% DR% ARate TORate %Block %Stls 12 A. Anderson So 34 67.5 110.5 16.9 4.7 11.4 21.8 15.8 0.9 3.4 2 Robert Dozier So 35 63.4 103.0 21.0 10.5 15.4 7.5 20.4 6.4 2.1 32 Joey Dorsey Jr 35 63.1 108.5 19.0 18.8 22.4 2.6 20.4 9.5 3.3 14 Douglas-Roberts So 33 61.9 116.8 25.1 4.4 9.5 14.0 16.2 1.7 2.5 5 Jeremy Hunt Sr 35 58.6 114.2 24.7 2.8 10.3 11.4 13.5 1.5 3.3 1 Willie Kemp Fr 35 53.9 101.2 16.8 2.9 9.1 17.9 20.3 0.3 1.8 15 Andre Allen Jr 34 49.7 92.0 19.6 2.6 7.5 25.1 23.8 0.2 3.8 20 Doneal Mack Fr 33 33.7 123.1 20.3 4.5 10.6 10.9 12.3 2.2 2.0 42 Kareem Cooper So 27 20.9 106.1 19.9 13.0 20.9 4.4 18.3 5.0 1.1 4 Pierre Niles Fr 24 13.0 83.2 16.2 11.5 20.3 3.6 30.3 5.2 2.5
Locks: At this stage in the game, there are no locks, but the team that seems to have the very best odds of advancing to Atlanta is Florida, who faces 3-seed Oregon tomorrow. Oregon's defense will definitely have their hands full against the talented Gators, and I'm not sure Malik Hairston and Co. have the weapons to advance.
Upset Specials: Ohio State looks like it will have the toughest time of any favorite in the Elite Eight, going up against a strong Memphis squad. It doesn't help that the Bucks have been regularly spotting the opposition double-digit leads before staging remarkable comebacks, either. I'm not saying the Men of Matta are going to lose or anything, but don't be surprised if this weekend is the last time you see Greg Oden on a college court.
Best Games: All of them. Especially UNC-Georgetown and Kansas-UCLA. One good thing about the lack of upsets is that every game from here on out will be an extremely close battle between two of the nation's very best teams -- something you couldn't say last year, as both Florida and UCLA enjoyed fairly easy wins in the National Semifinals. For better or for worse, there are no George Masons this year.
As usual, tune in before The Final Four® hits my hometown for the latest odds on the NCAA Tournament -- and you should definitely be sure to visit Ken's blog for further predictions and analysis, as well. Until next time, peace out!
Categories: Opinions | NCAA Basketball Opinions | College Basketball Opinions | March Madness Opinions | Bracketology Opinions | University of Florida Opinions | University of Oregon Opinions | University of Kansas Opinions | UCLA Opinions | University of North Carolina Opinions | Georgetown University Opinions | The Ohio State University Opinions | University of Memphis Opinions | Greg Oden Opinions | March 24, 2007 | Opinions by User Davis21wylie
