FF Keeper Guide '07: 5 Easy Rules
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by user Bobbyjim45
Sure, the NFL season is wrapped up, and you may be getting ready for baseball, March Madness, the NBA stretch and much more, but if you're in a fantasy football keeper league, you need to remember that fantasy football season never really dies. You don't want to be the guy who gets caught up in everything else and forgets his team when the rest of the league is still depending on him to be involved.
There are really only a few simple rules that can keep you competitive right through the offseason, and you may still be able to catch a little baseball while you’re at it. Follow my guidelines and you’ll keep your team in the hunt right up until, well, football season starts again. After that, I’m afraid I can’t make any guarantees…
Pay attention to off season transactions
If you're the proud owner of Randy Moss, he may not seem like a compelling keeper right now. However, if he finds his way to a team like New England (you know, somebody who has a quarterback on their roster) his value will skyrocket. If you're not paying attention, this could mean a top wideout slipping to somebody else's plump, greasy, greedy little fingers.
Sticking with the Moss theme, let's say Oakland goes out and grabs a guy like Matt Schaub or Jeff Garcia. This will dramatically increase Moss' value, but it will be even easier to miss since the transaction doesn't directly affect Moss.
Be sure to pay attention to everything, including the effect of offensive linemen on running backs. Larry Johnson lost some of his best blockers last year and, even though he was still very good, he didn't quite live up to the expectations put on him after his hot finish in '05.
Also watch positional battles. Brandon Jacobs looks like a solid keeper right now, but if Ahman Green goes to the Giants, this may be a sign New York doesn't feel he's ready to handle the full load, and he may not be worth locking up.
Study the draft as well. If you have a wideout like Andre Johnson and Houston drafts Brady Quinn, you may need to look elsewhere for that keeper spot. However, if Houston decides to go the defensive route in the draft and bring in a guy like Plummer for QB, Johnson's stock skyrockets.
Slim down that excess talent
Case study: Last offseason I was looking at LJ, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Hines Ward. What did I do? I traded away Wayne and Ward to a guy who only had Shaun Alexander and Chad Johnson in exchange for Ocho Cinco, then rode my stars to a championship.
Moral of the story: Don't sit there with an extra keeper-worthy-player, when you can trade a package for one bigger, better star. My second option would've been to keep Ward and watch him struggle through the season and be the 22nd best receiver in the NFL.
Word of warning: Don't get trade happy and start giving up all your studs. If you complicate things with too many trades, your team will wind up being a mess. Take my word for it.
Take your time, but feel free to hurry up
You don't want to set your keepers in March before anything happens. You need to get as much information as you can about your players as well as their teams and your fellow league-mates. However, don't wait to do all of your homework until a week before next year's draft, then be struggling with your decisions and blow it. Basically, you need to stay on top of things, but don't make your final decisions until later.
Know your league rules
In another league I was in, we could keep three guys and I was left with two solid keepers and two mediocre ones. I scanned the league rules and found that I had the option of only keeping two guys and getting a compensation pick at the beginning of the draft. In a lot of ESPN leagues, if you don't use up all your keepers, it automatically selects the guy on your roster who scored the most points the year before. Mine was different though, so I took advantage of this rule and grabbed Brian Westbrook, who somehow slipped through the cracks of his 2005 roster.
Also don't forget that many leagues require you to set your keepers sometime in June or July. Don't let this date pass you by and get you off to a hopeless start to 2007.
Study your competition
Play off your league-mates. Let's say you have the first pick in next year's draft. You have an option of keeping two wideouts and one back, or two backs and one wideout. If somebody in your league has two solid WRs and two other definite keepers, you may be more apt to only keep one of your wideouts so you can take the one he leaves on the table during the draft.
You need to be careful though. Don't trust anything your competition tells you about what they plan to do. If you go around asking everyone who they're going to keep, chances are you'll only get a handful of truthful answers. This is war, men, and deception is key.
