Davis21wylie's Week 14 NFL Team Rankings
| 13
|
by user Davis21wylie
Obligatory Plug #2: This is the last call! Don't forget to enter your picks in the Official ArmchairGM User Bowl Pick'em! The contest closes on Dec. 16...
Final exams are this week, and I've got only one more to go, which means -- drumroll please -- Player Rankings will return next week, I promise! I know, you're all waiting with bated breath...
As usual, here's my spiel about how the rankings are calculated. For those who didn't catch it the last time I did this: while I'm still predicting net points with the formula PNP = (Net Yards / 12) + (4 * Net Turnovers), and net wins by pNW = (Games / 2) + (PNP / 40), this method will only comprise 37.5% of my rankings. Since net yards don't take into account punt/kickoff/return yardage, teams with good special teams were being undervalued, so I'm also using the good old pythagorean projection:
- pW% = (PF^2.37)/((PF^2.37)+(PA^2.37))
Predicted net wins and % are denoted by pW1 and pW%1, and pythagorean wins and % are denoted by pW2 and pW%2. A new feature over the past couple weeks has been the addition of a strength of schedule component. What I used to call "rating" (the average of pW%1 and pW%2) is now referred to as the "raw" rating, while "SOS" is the cumulative winning % of the team's opponents. "New Rating" is now 75% the old "raw" rating, and 25% SOS. (Again, I'm using NFL.com's SOS data, meaning that it ought to be right.) So, here goes:
Team Rankings (sorted by New Rating):
Team G Off Def Give Take NetYds NetTO PNP pW1 pW%1 PF PA pW2 pW%2 Raw SOS NewRtg ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Baltimore Ravens 13 4013 3485 16 32 528 16 108.0 9.2 0.708 276 170 9.9 0.759 0.733 0.497 0.674 San Diego Chargers 13 4760 3826 12 23 934 11 121.8 9.5 0.734 425 257 10.0 0.767 0.751 0.444 0.674 Chicago Bears 13 4083 3649 29 40 434 11 80.2 8.5 0.654 360 177 11.0 0.843 0.749 0.450 0.674 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 4291 3686 17 21 605 4 66.4 8.2 0.628 303 191 9.7 0.749 0.688 0.503 0.642 New England Patriots 13 4366 3831 27 27 535 0 44.6 7.6 0.586 281 186 9.4 0.727 0.656 0.515 0.621 Dallas Cowboys 13 4854 4001 21 26 853 5 91.1 8.8 0.675 349 260 8.7 0.668 0.671 0.467 0.620 New Orleans Saints 13 5338 4108 20 16 1230 -4 86.5 8.7 0.666 352 268 8.5 0.656 0.661 0.467 0.613 Indianapolis Colts 13 4958 4330 16 24 628 8 84.3 8.6 0.662 342 295 7.6 0.587 0.624 0.515 0.597 Cincinnati Bengals 13 4546 4518 19 26 28 7 30.3 7.3 0.558 317 250 8.3 0.637 0.598 0.521 0.579 Philadelphia Eagles 13 4902 4312 20 21 590 1 53.2 7.8 0.602 315 282 7.3 0.565 0.584 0.467 0.555 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 4686 3911 32 24 775 -8 32.6 7.3 0.563 286 264 7.1 0.547 0.555 0.509 0.543 Miami Dolphins 13 4141 3616 22 23 525 1 47.8 7.7 0.592 228 222 6.7 0.516 0.554 0.509 0.543 New York Giants 13 4359 4345 21 24 14 3 13.2 6.8 0.525 292 268 7.2 0.551 0.538 0.533 0.537 Minnesota Vikings 13 4239 3677 28 31 562 3 58.8 8.0 0.613 241 251 6.2 0.476 0.545 0.467 0.525 Kansas City Chiefs 13 4215 4205 20 22 10 2 8.8 6.7 0.517 267 256 6.8 0.525 0.521 0.491 0.513 Atlanta Falcons 13 4379 4386 14 23 -7 9 35.4 7.4 0.568 244 256 6.1 0.472 0.520 0.444 0.501 Denver Broncos 13 3977 4225 23 23 -248 0 -20.7 6.0 0.460 235 236 6.5 0.497 0.479 0.544 0.495 St. Louis Rams 13 4521 4473 17 24 48 7 32.0 7.3 0.562 269 329 5.0 0.383 0.472 0.491 0.477 Carolina Panthers 13 4176 3957 25 18 219 -7 -9.8 6.3 0.481 226 244 5.9 0.455 0.468 0.479 0.471 New York Jets 13 3912 4537 22 21 -625 -1 -56.1 5.1 0.392 254 269 6.1 0.466 0.429 0.509 0.449 Seattle Seahawks 13 4019 4268 29 24 -249 -5 -40.8 5.5 0.422 281 290 6.3 0.481 0.451 0.414 0.442 Buffalo Bills 13 3364 4340 22 21 -976 -1 -85.3 4.4 0.336 243 262 5.9 0.456 0.396 0.562 0.437 Washington Redskins 13 4160 4484 14 10 -324 -4 -43.0 5.4 0.417 232 295 4.7 0.361 0.389 0.515 0.421 Green Bay Packers 13 4463 4572 25 23 -109 -2 -17.1 6.1 0.467 249 343 4.1 0.319 0.393 0.503 0.420 Tennessee Titans 13 3974 4737 23 22 -763 -1 -67.6 4.8 0.370 247 314 4.7 0.362 0.366 0.568 0.416 Arizona Cardinals 13 3889 4619 26 28 -730 2 -52.8 5.2 0.398 248 305 4.9 0.380 0.389 0.467 0.409 Houston Texans 13 3734 4545 20 18 -811 -2 -75.6 4.6 0.355 219 296 4.3 0.329 0.342 0.503 0.382 Detroit Lions 13 4118 4508 34 22 -390 -12 -80.5 4.5 0.345 236 324 4.2 0.321 0.333 0.503 0.375 San Francisco 49ers 13 3887 4510 29 21 -623 -8 -83.9 4.4 0.339 228 349 3.5 0.267 0.303 0.485 0.348 Cleveland Browns 13 3504 4610 33 21 -1106 -12 -140.2 3.0 0.230 208 293 4.0 0.307 0.269 0.556 0.341 Oakland Raiders 13 3163 3748 33 22 -585 -11 -92.8 4.2 0.322 156 269 2.8 0.216 0.269 0.544 0.337 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 3322 4294 26 14 -972 -12 -129.0 3.3 0.252 151 289 2.3 0.177 0.214 0.556 0.300 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A three-way tie for first this week! Here's how close it really was:
Team NewRtg ------------------------- Baltimore 0.674349 San Diego 0.674032 Chicago 0.674030 -------------------------
That's right, the Fighting LaDainians came out ahead of Da Bears for second place by a mere 0.000002 points -- a truly razor-thin margin!
Because I don't want to do another opinion tomorrow, I'll give my odds down here this week. Week 1 of my probabilities was a mixed bag, as you can see:
A-B RawOddsA HomeField OddsA OddsB Winner? ------------------------------------------------------- PIT-CLE 64.8% +7.8% 72.6% 27.4% Yes ATL-TB 69.5% -7.8% 61.7% 38.3% Yes BAL-KC 63.4% -7.8% 55.6% 44.4% Yes IND-JAX 50.9% -7.8% 43.1% 56.9% Yes MIN-DET 62.2% -7.8% 54.4% 45.6% Yes NE-MIA 66.0% -7.8% 58.2% 41.8% No NYG-CAR 55.2% -7.8% 47.4% 52.6% No CIN-OAK 71.5% +7.8% 79.3% 20.7% Yes PHI-WAS 65.6% -7.8% 57.8% 42.2% Yes TEN-HOU 52.5% -7.8% 44.7% 55.3% No GB-SF 53.5% -7.8% 45.7% 54.3% No SEA-ARZ 56.4% -7.8% 48.6% 51.4% Yes NYJ-BUF 56.6% +7.8% 64.4% 35.6% No SD-DEN 64.1% +7.8% 71.9% 28.1% Yes DAL-NO 58.5% +7.8% 66.3% 33.7% No CHI-STL 70.0% -7.8% 62.2% 37.8% Yes -------------------------------------------------------
63% correct -- I don't know if that's good or bad, but it can always be better! Anyway, here are the odds for Week 15 (since last week, the home-field advantage has changed to +6.25%):
A-B Team A% Team B% OddsA Home A B Favorite -------------------------------------------------------------------- SEA-SF 0.442 0.348 59.7% 6.3% 66.0% 34.0% Seattle ATL-DAL 0.501 0.620 38.1% 6.3% 44.3% 55.7% Dallas BAL-CLE 0.674 0.341 80.0% 6.3% 86.2% 13.8% Baltimore GB-DET 0.420 0.375 54.7% 6.3% 60.9% 39.1% Green Bay NE-HOU 0.621 0.382 72.6% 6.3% 78.9% 21.1% New England TEN-JAX 0.416 0.642 28.4% 6.3% 34.7% 65.3% Jacksonville BUF-MIA 0.437 0.543 39.5% 6.3% 45.8% 54.2% Miami MIN-NYJ 0.525 0.449 57.6% 6.3% 63.8% 36.2% Minnesota CAR-PIT 0.471 0.543 42.8% 6.3% 49.1% 50.9% Pick 'Em CHI-TB 0.674 0.300 82.8% 6.3% 89.1% 10.9% Chicago NO-WSH 0.613 0.421 68.5% 6.3% 74.8% 25.2% New Orleans ARZ-DEN 0.409 0.495 41.4% 6.3% 47.6% 52.4% Denver NYG-PHI 0.537 0.550 48.7% 6.3% 54.9% 45.1% Giants OAK-STL 0.337 0.477 35.8% 6.3% 42.0% 58.0% St. Louis SD-KC 0.674 0.513 66.2% 6.3% 72.5% 27.5% San Diego IND-CIN 0.597 0.579 51.9% 6.3% 58.1% 41.9% Indy --------------------------------------------------------------------
As usual, thanks a bunch for reading, and have a great week...
See also:
- 2006 NFL Capsules: Introduction ("NFL at the Movies")
- Davis21wylie's Week 13 NFL Team Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 12 NFL Team Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 10 NFL Team Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 9 NFL Player and Team Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 8 NFL Team Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 7 NFL Player -- And Team! -- Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 6 NFL Player -- And Team! -- Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 5 NFL Player Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 4 NFL Player Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 3 NFL Player Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 2 NFL Player Rankings
- Davis21wylie's Week 1 NFL Player Rankings
