Covering the Spread: The big “dogs” this week in college football
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by InterMat
Since my early days working at a daily newspaper and following college football, the “Latest Line” or “Daily Odds” have always intrigued me. I’m not a betting man, nothing more than a dollar “gentleman’s bet” (more to prove a point), but when I see these gaudy point-spreads, I sometimes wonder. How the hell can you say one team is nine touchdowns better than another?
Pretty easily actually. With smaller schools taking big time payoffs to become the sacrificial lamb for a weekend, shitty teams find their way to stadiums with 80-90,000 fans routinely.
But what about those betting folk?
I first noticed teams covering incredibly large spreads when North Texas once was a 55-point underdog to then-#4 Kansas State (give or take). The final result was a predictable 55-10 thrashing. Such a result should really not stand out in the minds of ANY sports fan, no matter how mundane or lopsided the game was. But guess what, they covered.
North Texas is again the focus of a ginormous spread … getting 40½ against eighth-ranked Oklahoma.
Oh, but the Mean Green have an ace in the hole – their new coach has a 79-1 record the last five years. Tim Dodge was coaching at Southlake Carroll High School and now gets his hand at the college ranks. First up – Oklahoma! Oklahoma is “O-shit!” for Dodge.
North Texas’ media notes are calling Dodge’s new system “Dodge Ball.” They’re coming off a 3-9 record. I’d like to call the new system “Duck and Cover.”
The last time the two teams met in Norman, it kicked off the 2003 season. I’ll tell you this, North Texas covered. Oklahoma pounded the Mean Green 37-3, but the Mean Green were spotted more than the 34-point difference according to the line. In fact, the last three meetings saw Oklahoma score exactly 37 points, not exactly a betting man’s trend, but with a 40½-point spread, it might be worth laying a few greenbacks on the Mean Green to cover.
What? Are you saying bet ON North Texas? To win? Not hardly. To cover? Quite possibly.
The only six times the two teams have met, it hasn’t been close. The average margin of victory has been 37.6 points (again, less than the current spread) … but much of that is from the team’s first meeting in 1987, when North Texas was in I-AA (excuse me, the Football Championship Subdivision).
North Texas has one win over a Top 20 school in program history and that came before many of you reading this were born – in 1974. Since 1976, the Mean Green are 0-22 against Top 25 programs and 0-13 against teams in the Top 10. Average margin of defeat in those 13 losses – 40.6 points per game – nearly identical to the spread in Saturday’s opener.
The worst defeat? That came in 2004 to #7 Texas 65-0. Ironically enough, I don’t believe North Texas was more than a 50-point dog to the Longhorns. Had they been, they might have scuffed up some garbage time points or a punt return or a fumble return against the fourth-team offense and covered.
Regardless, I don’t care about the game … but if North Texas covers, I might have actually stumbled on to a trend that no one in their right mind would even care about.
End result: Oklahoma 40, North Texas 3
Other Blowouts expected this week:
Penn State (-38.5) vs. Florida International
The Nittany Lions blow away the worst team in Division I-A. This one’s got 55-6 written all over it. Penn State covers.
Texas (-39) vs. Arkansas State
The Longhorns roll over Sun Belt teams in openers (see previous North Texas reference). Texas has the potential to put 70 on the board. Rough pick: Texas 69, Arkansas State 3
USC (-45) vs. Idaho
One of the few big spreads where I don’t expect the favored team to cover. Why? I don’t think USC’s going to run up the score against the lowly Vandals. Thank goodness this isn’t being played in the barn called the Kibbie Dome up in Idaho. Only reason I know that? Yup, NCAA College Football 2008. I scheduled a non-conference game with “Bull Island State” against Idaho to kick off my new season and catch the feel of my “middle-of-the-road” dynasty. Pete Carroll takes it easy in the second half.
USC did beat Idaho 72-0 the last time the two schools played – last century. All seven meetings between the two schools took place between 1922-1929. One of my grandparents was alive then and only one are alive now. Kinda morbid, I know, but Idaho was 4-8 last season and USC is the consensus #1 in the nation by like 50 rankings services.
USC 56, Idaho 7
