Carlos Zambrano: The Lone Survivor

In 1995, the Chicago Cubs drafted pitcher Kerry Wood with the 4th overall pick in the amateur draft. He reached the big leagues in 1998, starting 26 games. Wood proved to be effective with a 3.40 ERA, while jumping into the national spotlight with a 20 strikeout game. After a season with a ridiculous 233 K's in only 166.7 IP, arm troubles sidelined the young phenom until 2000.

In 1997, a year before Wood bursted onto the scene, the Cubs signed who they would soon believe to be their closer of the future. This man was 17-year-old Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano blew hitters away with his fastball, but lacked a dominating breaking pitch; thus, he seemed destined for a future in relief.

With Wood blowing major league hitters away in 1998, Zambrano was striking out minor league hitters in the Rookie league at a tune of 8.10 per 9 innings. Unfortunately, he was walking 5.62 every nine. At single-A in 1999, the Cubs moved Zambrano into the rotation; however, his K rate dropped to 5.75 and his ERA rose over a full run from 3.15 to 4.17. Still, Zambrano was only 18-years-old and full of promise.

Chicago began the 2000 season by promoting Zambrano into the AA rotation. He lasted only 9 starts. Double-A hitters simply could not touch him, as Big Z posted a 1.34 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He would spend the next 34 of his appearances that year relieving for the AAA club. At only 19, he was fairly young to be pitching against AAA hitters. It showed. Zambrano's K rate increased back to 7.31/9 innings, but his BB rate doubled to 6.35/9 innings. Overall, the youngster produced an unimpressive 3.97 ERA.

Meanwhile, Wood had returned from Tommy John Surgery, using 2000 to brush off the rust. In 23 starts, Wood recorded a 4.80 ERA, due to a huge drop in strikeouts. Still, Cubs fans were counting on Wood to be their ace for a long time. Little did they no, they had someone even better waiting in the wings.

Another tremendous pitching talent fell into the Cubs lap in 2001. Mark Prior had been drafted 43rd by the Yankees in 1998, but elected to re-enter the draft after college. The Twins, thinking Prior would be too expensive, drafted young catcher Joe Mauer. This allowed the Cubs to draft who was perceived by many as the best player in the draft at number two. Prior would not wait long before making his impression.

For the first time ever, Zambrano began a year in the same league he had finished in the year before. At 20-years-old, Zambrano moved back into a starting spot for the AAA-affiliate. Controlwise, he was still shaky, but AAA hitters were striking out 9.26 times per nine innings. The Cubs had seen enough. Zambrano was called up to the Cubs, where he would pitch in 6 games, starting one of those games, for a total of only 7.7 innings. They were not real impressive as he walked 8 batters, struck out only 4, and had a 15.26 ERA. Still, Big Z had made the majors, and Prior was soon to follow.

While Zambrano was crossing over and Prior was drafted after a dominant season at USC, Wood still had bragging rights over them. His age 24 season was spent reminding the country of what he had done in 1998. Wood's K rate jumped back over one per inning and his ERA fell to 3.36, better than 1998. It appeared as though 2002 would be the first time Chicago could run out a top three to rival Oakland's 2001 rotationo of Hudson, Mulder, and Zito.

While 2002 did not match the Big Three in Oakland, it proved all three were legitimate future aces. Twenty-five-year-old Kerry Wood's K rate dropped a little, but his walk rate improved and his ERA stayed solid at 3.66. Twenty-one-year-old Mark Prior, after 50 minor league innings, pitched in 19 starts, 147 strikeouts, and a 3.32 ERA. Finally, twenty-one-year-old Carlos Zambrano pitched in 32 games, starting 16 of them, with an ERA of 3.66 to match Wood.

The stars alligned perfectly in 2003. All three pitchers would be healthy, pitching over 200 innings each. Zambrano posted an ERA of 3.11, Wood at 3.20, and Prior at 2.43. The rotation was so deep that Zambrano, the number three starter, could have been the ace of almost any other team. Not to mention, Matt Clement pitched over 200 innings with a respectable 4.11 ERA. Driven by a stellar rotation, the Cubs won their division for the first time since 1989. Unfortunately, their playoff run was stopped short of the World Series after a terrible collapse, which some blame on fan Steve Bartman.

Since 2003, Wood has yet to stay healthy for a full season, nor post an ERA better than 3.75. Likewise, Prior has not had a season in which he has been healthy and dominant. Like 2004 and 2005, Zambrano has been the unquestionable ace on the 2006 Cubs team. He succeeds on the movement by his two-seam sinker and a devastating slider. Walks have always come frequently for Zambrano, but they never seem to hurt him. Batters frequently ground into double plays and they rarely hit home runs off of Zambrano, minimizing the cost of a walk.

Most blame the injuries of Wood and Prior on Dusty Baker for overworking them; however, Zambrano has been one of the most overworked pitchers in the majors his whole career. Yet, Zambrano stands here today as one of the best pitchers in the game, and Prior and Wood try to rehab from injuries. If Prior and Wood can ever find a way to provide the team with 200 innings, the Cubs can again put together a strong starting three. Unfortunately, they may never be able to rival the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz or Hudson-Mulder-Zito staffs like the young stars did in 2003.