Career-Path Projections: The Free Agent Hitters of '06-07
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by user Davis21wylie
I don't need to tell you that it hasn't exactly been a winter of discontent for Major League Baseball's 2006-07 bumper crop of free agents. This hot stove season has produced some of the largest contracts ever handed out, including a pair of $100 million+ deals that last as long as 8 years. Even journeymen like Gary Matthews Jr. are getting into the act -- he leveraged the only season in which he was both healthy and productive into a massive 5-year, $50 million deal with the Angels. Now the question is, "was it worth it?" As was noted in the discussion of The Beast's well-researched piece on Gary Matthews, free spending can hamper a franchise in a number of ways if the players don't deliver production commensurate with their salary. Therefore, it is imperative to project exactly how many runs a player will provide your team, and weigh that number against the amount of money you're considering paying him.
But how do you project statistics for the length of a contract? As is the case with most matters requiring brilliant baseball innovations, enter Bill James. In his 1985 Baseball Abstract, James invented what he called the "Brock2" projection system (click the link for the Excel file), a method by which you can enter a player's lifetime stats into a spreadsheet and receive a career-path projection until they retire (or hit age 41), based on aging factors, etc. (BTW, the name refers to Greg Brock, a player that kind of symbolized what James was trying to do -- project career stats for young players based on only a few seasons' worth of stats.)
Along with similarity, the Brock2 system has to be considered one of the most innovative advances in the history of baseball statistics. It's surpringly accurate, too, especially for career totals of the great players. I hear it isn't as good for lesser players, but for our purposes (we're dealing with big-name free agents), it should fit the bill perfectly. I've also added some of the cool, newer stats to the projections, like EqA and VORP. These projections should give us a rough idea of how productive a player should be throughout his contract, and whether or not teams overpaid for that production. At the bottom of each player's line is the total salary for their current contract, and the number of marginal dollars (equal to total salary minus $327,000 time the length of the contract, because $327,000 is the MLB minimum salary) spent per VORP produced. Obviously, more than a few teams neglected to do this little excercise...
Note: This is a truly massive article, so scroll that browser window all the way to the right (seriously, so you can read all of the numbers), and get ready to see into the future!
Signed, Sealed, Delivered
Alfonso Soriano - Chicago Cubs
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 156 625 169 40 2 37 50 0.279 41.0 0.271 0.324 0.520 325 105 5.78 0.844 2008 32 156 621 163 37 2 37 57 0.275 37.0 0.262 0.324 0.505 313 102 5.54 0.829 2009 33 154 604 155 36 1 32 57 0.268 29.5 0.256 0.320 0.480 290 93 5.17 0.800 2010 34 154 596 154 35 1 31 52 0.267 28.1 0.258 0.318 0.477 284 90 5.12 0.795 2011 35 153 586 145 33 1 28 54 0.258 19.9 0.248 0.312 0.449 263 82 4.65 0.761 2012 36 152 577 141 31 1 25 52 0.253 15.4 0.244 0.307 0.434 251 77 4.41 0.741 2013 37 81 280 64 14 0 11 26 0.239 2.1 0.229 0.294 0.396 111 33 3.77 0.690 2014 38 31 85 22 5 0 3 8 0.256 2.6 0.254 0.317 0.429 37 12 4.56 0.746 Contract: 8 Years 175.6 2015 39 7 16 3 1 0 0 2 0.222 -0.2 0.213 0.280 0.349 6 2 3.10 0.629 2016 40 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0.240 0.0 0.239 0.305 0.379 2 1 3.80 0.684 Career 2009 7897 2108 472 27 413 582 0.270 411.9 0.267 0.317 0.490 3871 1228 5.30 0.807 Total Cost: $136,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $759,589.98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surprisingly, this is not the most dollar-foolish contract of the winter... but it's close. Brock2 says he'll have good production during the first two years of the deal, then tail off until the last few years, when he'll be a replacement-level player. But I think that this projection is too optimistic... The problem with Soriano is that he's so reliant on bat speed, and that's one of the first things to go. What will become of him when he's 34, hitting .240, and never walking? Chicago will have to find out over the next 8 years. Soriano as an OF is not really a bad player; while players like this are usually only worthwhile when they're on the other side of 30, a 3-year deal would have been a nice move by the Cubbies. But 8 years? Uh-uh.
Carlos Lee - Houston Astros
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 159 599 166 37 0 30 56 0.279 38.8 0.277 0.339 0.492 295 100 5.76 0.831 2008 32 158 594 164 34 1 29 56 0.276 36.2 0.276 0.338 0.482 286 97 5.63 0.820 2009 33 156 577 153 32 0 25 59 0.267 27.2 0.265 0.333 0.453 261 87 5.13 0.786 2010 34 155 568 155 32 0 24 52 0.270 28.5 0.272 0.334 0.458 260 87 5.25 0.792 2011 35 153 557 144 29 0 21 54 0.258 18.4 0.258 0.324 0.425 237 77 4.64 0.749 2012 36 82 271 70 14 0 10 26 0.254 7.7 0.256 0.321 0.415 113 36 4.48 0.736 Contract: 6 Years 156.8 2013 37 31 82 20 4 0 2 8 0.240 0.7 0.239 0.306 0.378 31 10 3.81 0.684 Career 2097 7818 2179 452 13 363 680 0.276 464.7 0.279 0.336 0.479 3746 1260 5.59 0.815 Total Cost: $100,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $625,242.35 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Lee signing makes a bit more sense. He's got plenty of power, he walks more than Soriano, and doesn't strike out nearly as much. His defense has been brutal in recent years, but left field in Houston is as good a place to hide him as any. One potential problem, though, is that at 250+ lbs, Lee seems like an injury waiting to happen. Also, he doesn't have that broad a skill set to fall back on when his bat speed goes. But at least he'll still be a semi-useful player toward the end of his contract, which is more than you can say about Soriano. Not a great signing, but not the worst.
Aramis Ramirez - Chicago Cubs
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 29 149 553 161 35 2 41 45 0.301 56.1 0.292 0.345 0.583 322 111 7.11 0.928 2008 30 153 580 171 37 3 38 49 0.299 56.5 0.295 0.350 0.563 326 114 6.98 0.913 2009 31 152 559 159 34 2 35 47 0.291 47.0 0.285 0.341 0.543 303 103 6.47 0.884 2010 32 153 562 157 33 2 32 48 0.284 40.8 0.279 0.336 0.518 291 98 6.04 0.854 2011 33 152 548 150 32 2 30 52 0.280 36.5 0.274 0.337 0.501 275 93 5.82 0.838 Contract: 5 Years 236.9 2012 34 152 543 149 31 2 28 46 0.276 32.5 0.274 0.330 0.491 267 88 5.58 0.821 2013 35 151 535 141 29 1 25 48 0.267 25.2 0.264 0.325 0.464 248 81 5.13 0.789 2014 36 151 529 138 28 1 23 47 0.262 21.0 0.261 0.321 0.449 238 76 4.87 0.770 2015 37 151 522 128 26 1 20 47 0.248 10.3 0.245 0.307 0.411 215 66 4.18 0.718 2016 38 80 253 68 14 1 10 23 0.265 10.9 0.270 0.330 0.442 112 37 4.99 0.772 2017 39 102 308 70 14 0 9 28 0.230 -1.2 0.226 0.291 0.362 112 32 3.40 0.653 2018 40 24 56 14 3 0 2 5 0.248 1.1 0.254 0.316 0.395 22 7 4.19 0.711 2019 41 8 16 4 1 0 0 2 0.233 0.0 0.235 0.300 0.360 6 2 3.53 0.660 Career 2624 9462 2599 539 27 489 766 0.276 565.5 0.275 0.329 0.492 4660 1533 5.59 0.821 Total Cost: $75,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $309,687.63 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Probably the best big signing of the winter, even though it was technically a re-signing to keep him in Chi-town. Unlike a lot of the other guys on this list, Ramirez hasn't turned 30 yet, which is huge for a Class A free agent. He's been playing since he was 20, so it only seems like he is as old as some of these other free agents. Ramirez had a VORP of 44.5 last year, and it was kind of a down year in terms of his rate stats (his EqA was over .300 in 2004 & 2005). If he maintains health with his .300-ish EqA (which Brock2 thinks will happen), he could be one of the 20 most valuable players in the game. In other words, this was just a great move to re-up Ramirez, the best position player available on the market.
J.D. Drew - Boston Red Sox
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Actual Brock2 Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 124 415 118 25 3 18 74 0.293 37.1 0.286 0.393 0.490 203 80 6.74 0.883 2008 32 141 468 130 29 4 17 80 0.285 35.5 0.279 0.384 0.469 219 84 6.24 0.853 2009 33 138 453 121 26 3 15 80 0.275 27.5 0.268 0.378 0.440 200 75 5.68 0.818 2010 34 143 464 125 27 3 14 73 0.272 25.7 0.270 0.369 0.435 202 75 5.50 0.804 2011 35 144 461 121 26 3 13 74 0.264 20.1 0.262 0.364 0.413 190 69 5.09 0.777 Contract: 5 Years 145.9 2012 36 146 462 119 25 3 12 71 0.258 15.9 0.257 0.356 0.398 184 65 4.77 0.754 2013 37 77 223 54 11 1 5 34 0.244 3.2 0.241 0.340 0.364 81 28 4.08 0.704 2014 38 30 68 18 4 0 1 10 0.260 2.5 0.266 0.360 0.396 27 10 4.85 0.756 2015 39 7 13 3 1 0 0 2 0.227 -0.1 0.225 0.319 0.327 4 1 3.37 0.646 2016 40 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0.240 0.0 0.250 0.330 0.356 1 0 3.92 0.686 Career 1913 6192 1716 335 55 256 1026 0.284 466.8 0.277 0.380 0.473 2929 1113 6.21 0.853 Total Cost: $70,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $468,574.37 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You'll notice that I have two projections for J.D. Drew. Pretty much all of the criticism surrounding Drew's BoSox signing regarded his now-legendary injury proneness, citing his years of DL time in St. Louis, and the way he burned another brilliant, young, sabermetrically-inclined GM in L.A. So I projected two lines for Drew -- this one, the first, is his projection when I plug in his actual career stats to date, just like I've done with the players above. As you can see, Drew looks to be well worth the investment, posting 20+ VORPs in all 5 years of the deal, and yielding a rather low (by this winter's standards) marginal $/VORP. But Brock2 doesn't know just how injury-prone this guy is, and, after all, this is Boston, where the worst-case scenario is often the norm. So let's work up such a worst-case Drew projection...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Worst-Case Scenario Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 70 250 70 13 3 15 50 0.303 27.6 0.280 0.400 0.536 134 54 7.44 0.936 2008 32 123 418 117 26 4 17 74 0.289 35.1 0.279 0.387 0.486 203 79 6.52 0.873 2009 33 114 389 104 21 4 16 73 0.281 27.5 0.266 0.382 0.463 180 69 6.02 0.845 2010 34 129 432 116 24 4 16 69 0.275 26.3 0.268 0.369 0.451 195 72 5.69 0.820 2011 35 131 435 113 23 3 15 72 0.267 20.9 0.259 0.364 0.427 186 67 5.23 0.791 Contract: 5 Years 137.4 2012 36 137 448 115 23 3 14 70 0.261 17.7 0.256 0.356 0.412 185 66 4.93 0.768 2013 37 139 452 108 21 3 12 70 0.246 7.9 0.238 0.340 0.375 169 58 4.18 0.715 2014 38 55 148 39 8 1 4 22 0.262 5.9 0.264 0.360 0.406 60 22 4.97 0.766 2015 39 26 60 13 3 0 1 9 0.228 -0.4 0.221 0.319 0.333 20 6 3.41 0.652 2016 40 5 9 2 0 0 0 1 0.243 0.1 0.247 0.335 0.364 3 1 4.05 0.699 Career 1891 6201 1700 322 59 271 1037 0.284 466.9 0.274 0.378 0.476 2952 1116 6.20 0.854 Total Cost: $70,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $497,561.86 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, what do you know? As our buddy Josh Q. Public has said, "When this cat is healthy, this cat can flat out play." True dat. For his worst-case scenario, I plugged in a generic version of his 2005 numbers -- when he played only 72 games for L.A., a fate that many Bostonians fear will befall them as well. But even in limited action, Drew posted a 20-something VORP. And Brock2 sees him bouncing back from a hypothetical lost 2007 season to put up quality VORPs throughout the length of the contract. The net loss if Drew has another 2005 in 2007? Only 8.5 VORP. Certainly not reason to write garbage like this, is it?
Gary Matthews Jr. - LA Angels
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Actual Brock2/Pessimistic Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 32 144 558 136 29 4 14 54 0.240 4.9 0.244 0.310 0.387 216 67 3.97 0.697 2008 33 78 284 76 17 2 7 29 0.256 9.0 0.269 0.337 0.414 118 40 4.77 0.751 2009 34 99 340 89 19 2 8 39 0.252 8.6 0.261 0.337 0.398 135 46 4.54 0.735 2010 35 35 103 27 6 1 2 11 0.249 2.3 0.263 0.335 0.390 40 13 4.43 0.725 2011 36 27 73 18 4 0 1 8 0.233 0.0 0.240 0.316 0.353 26 8 3.67 0.669 Contract: 5 Years 24.8 2012 37 4 8 2 0 0 0 1 0.228 -0.1 0.238 0.311 0.339 3 1 3.45 0.650 Career 1262 4153 1081 233 31 110 450 0.253 114.4 0.260 0.333 0.410 1705 567 4.61 0.743 Total Cost: $50,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $1,950,201.61 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This contract has all sorts of possibilities, good and bad. Given this guy's spotty history of health, production, and playing time, it seemed like a good idea to do two projections for Matthews as well. The first is what pops up when I plug in his career stats, just like normal. In a word: Ouch. Brock2 sees 2006 as God's gift to fluke seasons -- it says Matthews will drop to a .240 EqA next year and never put up 10+ VORP again. Addtionally, that marginal $/VORP of $1,950,201.61 is easily the worst of the free agents this year, if not all time. But Matthews played so well last year -- what if it wasn't a fluke? Well, I can answer that...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Best-Case Scenario Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 32 145 600 185 40 5 19 55 0.286 45.9 0.308 0.366 0.487 292 107 6.45 0.853 2008 33 147 606 163 36 4 15 61 0.256 18.8 0.269 0.335 0.414 251 84 4.74 0.749 2009 34 147 598 169 36 4 15 53 0.263 24.5 0.282 0.341 0.430 257 88 5.11 0.771 2010 35 148 596 168 36 4 13 57 0.261 22.8 0.281 0.344 0.420 250 86 5.01 0.764 2011 36 149 590 160 34 3 12 55 0.252 15.1 0.271 0.333 0.399 236 78 4.56 0.732 Contract: 5 Years 127.1 2012 37 79 286 72 15 1 5 27 0.236 1.3 0.251 0.316 0.363 104 33 3.83 0.679 2013 38 30 87 24 5 0 1 8 0.256 2.8 0.281 0.343 0.401 35 12 4.78 0.744 2014 39 7 17 4 1 0 0 2 0.226 -0.1 0.240 0.307 0.336 6 2 3.39 0.643 2015 40 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0.241 0.0 0.263 0.328 0.361 2 1 4.02 0.689 Career 1731 6172 1679 361 43 158 626 0.259 219.4 0.272 0.339 0.421 2598 881 4.90 0.760 Total Cost: $50,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $380,527.14 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For this set, I said that Matthews would repeat his 2006 for the Angels in 2007. And, amazingly, this goes from being a horrible contract to a pretty decent one, at a marginal cost of only $380,527.14 per VORP. All of which goes to say... I have no idea whether Matthews is going to be worth it, and neither does Brock2. But, given the flukish looks of '06, you can't help but wonder if the first projection isn't more accurate. Which is bad news for Angels fans everywhere.
Juan Pierre - LA Dodgers
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 29 124 507 145 19 9 2 29 0.248 9.7 0.285 0.324 0.370 188 61 4.19 0.694 2008 30 147 620 180 26 10 2 34 0.251 13.9 0.290 0.326 0.376 233 76 4.31 0.702 2009 31 141 578 159 23 8 2 34 0.240 5.2 0.275 0.316 0.352 204 64 3.84 0.668 2010 32 77 289 80 12 4 1 17 0.240 2.6 0.276 0.317 0.351 101 32 3.84 0.668 2011 33 44 143 38 5 2 0 11 0.236 0.5 0.267 0.318 0.337 48 15 3.66 0.655 Contract: 5 Years 31.9 2012 34 8 19 5 1 0 0 2 0.242 0.2 0.269 0.339 0.338 6 2 3.92 0.677 2013 35 3 7 2 0 0 0 1 0.230 0.0 0.259 0.318 0.318 2 1 3.40 0.636 2014 36 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.231 0.0 0.256 0.323 0.318 0 0 3.46 0.641 Career 1551 6275 1853 235 94 20 385 0.253 160.7 0.295 0.336 0.372 2334 784 4.43 0.708 Total Cost: $44,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $1,328,056.43 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now, ladies and gentlemen, this is the anatomy of a bad contract. Step One: grossly misjudge the current/past value of the player -- check (they looked at Pierre's career 325 SB and .303 AVG instead of his career 4.63 RC/27 and .377 SLG). Step Two: Be completely oblivious to the fact that a player whose only skill is speed will completely lose it within several years of turning 30, and will consequently have nothing to fall back on -- check (Pierre hits the ball on the ground 64% of the time, and gets a lot of his hits that way; what happens when he can't beat those grounders out anymore?). Step Three: Make it a 5-year contract, just to make sure his speed is gone by the time it has two years left -- check. Pierre can't hit for power, won't be able to field when his speed leaves him, won't take a walk, and, for these reasons, he's not even close to being worth $44,000,000. A completely stupid decision on Ned Colletti's part.
Julio Lugo - Boston Red Sox
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Actual Brock2/Pessimistic Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 145 532 145 27 3 8 51 0.250 11.9 0.272 0.336 0.379 202 68 4.37 0.715 2008 32 140 500 135 25 2 9 47 0.250 11.0 0.270 0.333 0.383 191 64 4.36 0.716 2009 33 145 517 138 26 3 7 54 0.246 8.9 0.267 0.336 0.367 190 64 4.20 0.703 2010 34 76 245 64 12 1 3 29 0.244 3.5 0.261 0.338 0.358 88 30 4.09 0.696 Contract: 4 Years 35.3 2011 35 44 126 32 6 1 1 13 0.237 0.6 0.255 0.327 0.342 43 14 3.76 0.669 2012 36 8 16 4 1 0 0 2 0.235 0.0 0.252 0.326 0.336 6 2 3.67 0.662 Career 1478 5321 1454 268 35 96 504 0.253 141.5 0.273 0.336 0.391 2081 699 4.52 0.727 Total Cost: $36,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $982,776.20 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Lugo deal wasn't exactly a shining moment in Theo Epstein's career. Lugo is a solid player, for sure, but he's ultimately no better than average, and certainly isn't worth $9 million per. It also doesn't help that he'll be 31 next year, meaning that he only has a few good years left anyway. Brock2 really doesn't like Lugo -- it projects a massive decline in slugging that sends his offensive value over the cliff in a hurry, leaving him with little in the way of VORP by the time years 3 & 4 roll around. Of course, Lugo played great in Tampa last year before the trade to L.A.; what if he managed to play next year like he did in 2005, his career year?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Best-Case Scenario Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 160 600 180 35 5 5 60 0.266 26.7 0.300 0.364 0.400 240 87 5.19 0.764 2008 32 145 525 142 27 3 7 50 0.248 10.1 0.270 0.334 0.373 196 65 4.27 0.707 2009 33 152 550 152 29 3 5 59 0.250 12.4 0.276 0.346 0.368 202 70 4.39 0.714 2010 34 149 531 144 27 3 5 49 0.245 8.2 0.272 0.333 0.362 192 64 4.14 0.695 Contract: 4 Years 57.4 2011 35 80 261 70 13 1 2 26 0.242 3.0 0.268 0.334 0.351 91 30 4.00 0.685 2012 36 46 130 34 6 1 1 12 0.234 0.2 0.258 0.322 0.336 44 14 3.65 0.658 2013 37 8 17 4 1 0 0 2 0.226 -0.2 0.246 0.314 0.317 5 2 3.31 0.631 Career 1661 5999 1662 309 41 93 567 0.254 165.8 0.277 0.339 0.389 2332 792 4.56 0.728 Total Cost: $36,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $604,390.24 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is Lugo's best-case scenario, a repeat of 2005. The bad news is that it only staves off the aging process for one season -- meaning his hitting is practically guaranteed to fall off the face of the earth at some point during the next two seasons. $604,390.24 marginal $/VORP looks better than $982,776.20, but it still ain't great, and that's the best case. Needless to say, I'm not a huge fan of this signing, whether he repeats 2005 or not.
Jim Edmonds - St. Louis Cardinals
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 37 134 427 109 27 0 22 72 0.278 28.1 0.254 0.361 0.473 202 73 5.73 0.834 2008 38 131 412 115 26 0 21 63 0.290 34.2 0.279 0.375 0.493 203 76 6.41 0.868 Contract: 2 Years 62.3 2009 39 138 431 98 23 0 16 67 0.250 9.6 0.228 0.331 0.397 171 57 4.25 0.728 2010 40 72 203 53 12 0 8 30 0.270 10.6 0.261 0.356 0.440 89 32 5.29 0.796 2011 41 96 262 64 14 0 9 38 0.254 7.5 0.243 0.339 0.400 105 36 4.48 0.739 Career 2269 7642 2147 482 22 426 1148 0.295 706.1 0.281 0.375 0.517 3951 1481 6.74 0.892 Total Cost: $19,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $294,478.33 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I like this signing, because Edmonds continues to be productive well into his old age. Brock2 likes it, too, because it sees Edmonds as having two very good years left in the tank... and two years just happens to be the length of this contract. There are misgivings surrounding Edmonds' late-season concussion, however. His return in October was not exactly a smashing success despite St. Louis' World Series win, but he played a key role, and showed he could still hold his own. The injury probably drove down the value of this contract, but $294,478.33 marginal $/VORP is dynamite, assuming he can provide the projected level of production.
Nomar Garciaparra - LA Dodgers
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 33 111 416 117 24 1 15 39 0.272 19.4 0.282 0.343 0.450 187 64 5.37 0.793 2008 34 128 477 137 29 1 16 39 0.272 22.6 0.286 0.340 0.455 217 74 5.41 0.795 Contract: 2 Years 42.0 2009 35 130 477 131 26 1 14 42 0.262 15.6 0.275 0.333 0.424 202 67 4.87 0.757 2010 36 69 230 63 13 1 6 20 0.261 7.0 0.275 0.332 0.419 96 32 4.80 0.751 2011 37 40 116 30 6 0 3 10 0.244 0.9 0.254 0.315 0.379 44 14 4.01 0.694 2012 38 7 15 4 1 0 0 1 0.262 0.5 0.282 0.341 0.412 6 2 4.89 0.753 2013 39 3 6 1 0 0 0 1 0.231 -0.1 0.240 0.305 0.343 2 1 3.44 0.648 2014 40 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.246 0.0 0.263 0.329 0.364 0 0 4.07 0.693 Career 1681 6570 2021 435 56 266 500 0.293 518.1 0.308 0.357 0.512 3365 1200 6.59 0.869 Total Cost: $18,500,000 Marginal$/VORP: $424,904.76 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As is always the case when it comes to Nomar, his durability is the main concern. He hasn't played more than 125 games since 2003, when his trademark bouts with leg injuries began in earnest. Last year, he managed just 122 games, and that seems to be just about as many as you can expect from him nowadays. When he did play, Nomar was as productive as he's been since his pre-2001 heyday, but he also turns 33 this season, and the injuries portend that he will not age well, regardless of how well he played last year. Brock2 sees Nomar missing his customary number of games over the length of the contract, but it also foresees a decline in production, similar to that which he experienced in 2005. But, even with the knowledge that he will probably decline, his new contract is pretty reasonable. $424,904.76 marginal $/VORP is not all that bad by the standards of this winter, and he even has a decent chance of exceeding these projections -- another .290-ish EqA season in 2007 is not entirely out of the question.
Frank Thomas - Toronto Blue Jays
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 39 107 352 81 8 0 25 56 0.263 10.5 0.231 0.337 0.466 164 55 5.11 0.803 2008 40 65 197 51 5 0 14 32 0.281 11.8 0.260 0.363 0.503 99 36 6.16 0.866 Contract: 2 Years 22.3 2009 41 86 248 59 6 0 15 37 0.261 6.5 0.239 0.339 0.450 111 38 5.00 0.789 Career 2354 8218 2454 477 11 541 1672 0.313 954.5 0.299 0.417 0.557 4577 1909 8.28 0.974 Total Cost: $18,120,000 Marginal$/VORP: $783,228.70 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The A's took a flier on Thomas for only $500,000 last year, and it paid big-time dividends: his 41.3 VORP led the team, and his .302 EqA was good for 12th in the AL. If you're interested, the net result was a miniscule $4,188.86 marginal $/VORP -- Moneyball at its finest. Now Toronto's taking another chance on the Big Hurt... Too bad it's to the tune of 2 years, $18,120,000. Trouble is, Brock2 sees Thomas' 2006 outburst as a fluke, both in how well he played at age 38, but also in how much he played, given his history of foot and ankle injuries. Whenever you shell out for a player's performance in the past rather than in the future, it's a bad decision, and this looks like a textbook case. What are the odds that, at ages 39 & 40, he'll repeat his 2006 performance? Are they good enough to justify $9 million a year? I just can't see him producing (or staying healthy) again at a level commensurate with this contract. The Jays ended up paying for the production he gave the A's last year, not the production he'll give them next year.
Dave Roberts - San Francisco Giants
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 35 105 354 87 12 7 3 40 0.234 0.6 0.245 0.322 0.343 122 39 3.66 0.665 2008 36 47 141 37 5 3 1 15 0.240 1.3 0.261 0.332 0.349 49 16 3.92 0.681 2009 37 10 22 5 1 0 0 2 0.232 0.0 0.247 0.321 0.334 7 2 3.57 0.655 Contract: 3 Years 1.9 2010 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.248 0.0 0.274 0.325 0.341 0 0 4.25 0.666 2011 39 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.210 0.0 0.219 0.291 0.292 0 0 2.72 0.583 Career 829 2722 723 94 52 25 302 0.247 49.2 0.266 0.339 0.366 995 338 4.22 0.705 Total Cost: $18,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $8,957,368.42 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let me preface this by saying that I love Dave Roberts. His steal in the 2004 ALCS means everything to me, and he'll always have a place in my heart because of it. But since when is it even sane to give a 3-year, $6 million-per contract to a 35-year-old slap-and-dash hitter who makes his living off his speed and his speed alone? Sabes has really gone off the deep end with his veteran fetish at this point. Roberts is guaranteed to drop off catastrophically sometime over the next two years, and while it's admirable to surround Barry Bonds with table-setters, wouldn't it have made more sense to hand Randy Winn the keys to CF and clear room for guys like Todd Linden, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Nate Schierholtz, and Dan Ortmeier in the near future? While this Brock2 line is probably overly pessimistic, Roberts' day of ineffectiveness draws nearer with every second... And although it came for less money, this deal could prove even worse than the Pierre signing, which is saying something.
Barry Bonds - San Francisco Giants
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 42 98 274 91 19 0 22 72 0.356 57.1 0.332 0.471 0.643 176 83 11.32 1.114 Career 2958 9781 2932 606 77 756 2498 0.336 1669.6 0.300 0.442 0.609 5960 2636 9.62 1.051 Total Cost: $16,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $274,483.36 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It took the usual soap opera, but the Giants finally re-upped Barry Bonds to a 1-year, $16 million contract that will likely be one of the best values of this crazy offseason. Simply put, the Giants need Bonds, and he needs them. He'll break Hank Aaron's record next year in a Giants jersey, for one thing. He's also practically guaranteed to put up a VORP in the neighborhood of 50 next year, and his EqA will be among the MLB leaders. Think about it: guys like Lugo, Pierre, Thomas, and Garciaparra (all making more than $16 mil total on their deals) probably won't notch 50 VORP over the whole length of their contracts, while Bonds will likely produce that in 2007 alone. Regardless of how you feel about him as a person, it was a no-brainer to re-sign Bonds this winter; at this point, he's just about the only guy keeping San Francisco from looking like a AAA team.
Ray Durham - San Francisco Giants
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 35 143 502 136 29 3 16 50 0.265 21.7 0.270 0.336 0.435 218 73 5.01 0.771 2008 36 143 504 137 28 4 18 51 0.271 26.4 0.273 0.340 0.456 230 78 5.33 0.796 Contract: 2 Years 48.1 2009 37 145 503 130 27 3 14 50 0.254 14.3 0.258 0.326 0.409 205 67 4.48 0.735 2010 38 146 501 141 29 3 15 50 0.271 26.3 0.282 0.347 0.443 222 77 5.35 0.790 2011 39 147 499 118 24 3 11 50 0.235 1.4 0.236 0.306 0.361 180 55 3.61 0.667 2012 40 59 165 44 9 1 4 17 0.257 5.2 0.268 0.335 0.403 66 22 4.61 0.738 2013 41 27 66 16 3 0 1 7 0.241 0.6 0.248 0.317 0.366 24 8 3.85 0.683 Career 2520 9313 2568 533 94 255 989 0.268 448.9 0.276 0.345 0.435 4055 1400 5.19 0.780 Total Cost: $14,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $277,463.62 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Okay, maybe Bonds isn't the only guy. This was another good re-upping, because Durham has proved himself to be durable and as resistant to age-related declines as anyone. Brock2 seems confident that his current skill set will be able to sustain a number of years' worth of quality production before he finally falls off. That $277,463.62 marginal $/VORP is as good as any free agent this winter, meaning that Durham will be well worth the 2-year contract that Sabean gave him.
The Rest
For these guys, I'll just post the projections:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Alex Gonzalez - Cincinnati Reds (Actual Brock2/Pessimistic Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 30 40 140 34 8 0 2 10 0.226 -1.2 0.242 0.290 0.347 49 14 3.33 0.637 2008 31 25 68 16 4 0 1 5 0.227 -0.5 0.240 0.287 0.356 24 7 3.37 0.643 2009 32 9 21 5 1 0 0 2 0.228 -0.1 0.245 0.299 0.343 7 2 3.40 0.642 Contract: 3 Years -1.8 2010 33 5 9 2 0 0 0 1 0.231 0.0 0.235 0.328 0.329 3 1 3.52 0.657 2011 34 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.204 0.0 0.230 0.250 0.308 0 0 2.50 0.558 Career 1086 3848 945 221 26 94 209 0.234 6.8 0.246 0.284 0.389 1497 426 3.67 0.673 Total Cost: $14,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: ($7,232,777.78) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Alex Gonzalez - Cincinnati Reds (Best-Guess Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 30 133 461 115 28 2 12 27 0.236 2.0 0.249 0.290 0.397 183 53 3.82 0.687 2008 31 41 110 27 6 0 2 7 0.228 -0.8 0.240 0.284 0.368 41 12 3.45 0.652 2009 32 23 57 14 3 0 1 4 0.230 -0.2 0.243 0.289 0.373 21 6 3.57 0.662 Contract: 3 Years 1.0 2010 33 9 17 4 1 0 0 2 0.230 -0.1 0.235 0.313 0.346 6 2 3.54 0.659 2011 34 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0.216 -0.1 0.235 0.269 0.341 1 0 3.00 0.610 Career 1215 4257 1047 246 27 106 231 0.233 1.4 0.246 0.285 0.391 1666 474 3.69 0.676 Total Cost: $14,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $13,019,000.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Frank Catalantto - Texas Rangers (Actual Brock2/Pessimistic Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 33 109 326 92 23 2 5 37 0.261 12.5 0.281 0.354 0.407 133 47 5.01 0.761 2008 34 63 184 52 14 1 2 27 0.267 8.8 0.285 0.376 0.407 75 28 5.36 0.783 2009 35 86 230 64 15 1 3 28 0.258 7.7 0.279 0.357 0.392 90 32 4.84 0.749 Contract: 3 Years 29.0 2010 36 30 68 19 4 0 1 9 0.254 1.9 0.274 0.355 0.379 26 9 4.64 0.734 2011 37 15 30 8 2 0 0 3 0.237 0.1 0.254 0.332 0.346 10 3 3.85 0.678 Career 1275 3915 1149 270 34 81 372 0.271 206.6 0.294 0.355 0.442 1729 614 5.55 0.797 Total Cost: $13,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $414,448.28 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Frank Catalantto - Texas Rangers (Best-Guess Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 33 129 428 129 33 4 8 45 0.275 25.6 0.300 0.366 0.445 191 70 5.82 0.811 2008 34 136 449 128 33 2 6 44 0.261 17.3 0.285 0.349 0.411 185 65 5.03 0.760 2009 35 71 211 60 15 1 3 21 0.260 7.8 0.284 0.350 0.406 86 30 4.96 0.756 Contract: 3 Years 50.7 2010 36 41 109 30 8 1 1 11 0.255 3.2 0.279 0.344 0.393 43 15 4.69 0.737 2011 37 7 14 4 1 0 0 1 0.242 0.2 0.264 0.331 0.365 5 2 4.10 0.696 Career 1356 4288 1266 301 37 88 391 0.271 229.1 0.295 0.354 0.444 1904 674 5.58 0.798 Total Cost: $13,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $237,061.14 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mark DeRosa - Chicago Cubs (Actual Brock2/Pessimistic Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 32 95 284 67 16 1 7 26 0.233 -0.2 0.236 0.300 0.365 103 31 3.58 0.665 2008 33 62 194 49 12 1 4 19 0.244 2.8 0.254 0.321 0.381 74 24 4.10 0.702 2009 34 31 79 20 5 0 2 10 0.249 1.7 0.258 0.338 0.381 30 10 4.34 0.719 Contract: 3 Years 4.3 2010 35 12 27 7 2 0 0 3 0.242 0.3 0.255 0.326 0.367 10 3 4.02 0.693 2011 36 6 10 2 0 0 0 1 0.224 -0.1 0.231 0.306 0.326 3 1 3.25 0.632 2012 37 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.218 0.0 0.228 0.299 0.310 1 0 3.00 0.609 Career 802 2238 595 127 5 51 184 0.249 47.5 0.266 0.322 0.395 885 285 4.33 0.717 Total Cost: $13,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $2,795,116.28 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mark DeRosa - Chicago Cubs (Best-Case Scenario Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 32 135 520 150 40 2 14 45 0.272 28.1 0.288 0.345 0.454 236 81 5.50 0.799 2008 33 140 530 134 35 2 11 51 0.245 8.0 0.254 0.319 0.385 204 65 4.12 0.704 2009 34 73 253 69 18 1 5 27 0.260 9.4 0.273 0.344 0.413 104 36 4.89 0.757 Contract: 3 Years 45.5 2010 35 97 321 85 21 1 6 32 0.250 7.3 0.264 0.331 0.390 125 41 4.38 0.721 2011 36 34 95 24 6 0 2 10 0.244 1.3 0.256 0.326 0.372 35 11 4.08 0.698 2012 37 26 69 16 4 0 1 7 0.227 -0.5 0.235 0.305 0.336 23 7 3.35 0.641 2013 38 4 7 2 0 0 0 1 0.248 0.1 0.269 0.336 0.374 3 1 4.29 0.710 2014 39 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0.217 -0.1 0.227 0.297 0.308 1 0 2.96 0.605 Career 1107 3442 931 217 10 76 298 0.254 96.3 0.270 0.329 0.406 1396 459 4.57 0.735 Total Cost: $13,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $264,153.85 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Adam Kennedy - St. Louis Cardinals (Actual Brock2/Pessimistic Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 141 445 121 24 3 3 36 0.242 4.9 0.273 0.327 0.355 158 52 3.98 0.682 2008 32 75 216 58 12 2 1 18 0.243 2.6 0.270 0.327 0.359 78 25 4.02 0.686 2009 33 43 109 29 6 1 1 11 0.239 0.8 0.265 0.330 0.343 37 12 3.85 0.673 Contract: 3 Years 8.3 2010 34 16 32 8 2 0 0 4 0.239 0.2 0.260 0.339 0.337 11 4 3.87 0.676 2011 35 8 14 4 1 0 0 1 0.230 -0.1 0.255 0.324 0.319 4 1 3.46 0.643 2012 36 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0.227 0.0 0.250 0.321 0.314 1 0 3.36 0.635 Career 1308 4255 1182 229 38 57 301 0.250 96.4 0.278 0.326 0.390 1658 540 4.39 0.716 Total Cost: $10,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $1,086,626.51 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Adam Kennedy - St. Louis Cardinals (Best-Case Scenario Version) Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 140 450 125 25 5 3 35 0.248 8.9 0.278 0.330 0.376 169 56 4.29 0.706 2008 32 144 459 124 25 5 3 38 0.244 6.3 0.270 0.326 0.365 168 55 4.08 0.691 2009 33 76 219 58 12 2 1 20 0.242 2.4 0.267 0.329 0.355 78 26 3.98 0.684 Contract: 3 Years 17.6 2010 34 44 112 29 6 1 1 15 0.244 1.6 0.261 0.350 0.347 39 14 4.10 0.697 2011 35 16 33 8 2 0 0 3 0.235 0.1 0.257 0.328 0.334 11 4 3.69 0.662 2012 36 4 6 2 0 0 0 1 0.233 0.0 0.252 0.331 0.326 2 1 3.60 0.657 Career 1449 4715 1307 255 46 60 344 0.250 107.5 0.277 0.326 0.389 1835 599 4.40 0.715 Total Cost: $10,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $512,443.18 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kenny Lofton - Texas Rangers Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 40 130 446 133 15 8 2 41 0.260 15.9 0.299 0.358 0.382 170 61 4.88 0.740 Contract: 1 Year 15.9 2008 41 136 474 139 16 9 2 45 0.257 15.0 0.293 0.354 0.377 179 63 4.72 0.731 Career 2233 8551 2555 389 126 127 976 0.272 461.6 0.299 0.371 0.419 3579 1327 5.53 0.790 Total Cost: $6,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $356,792.45 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mike Piazza - Oakland A's Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 38 104 313 84 16 0 14 30 0.266 10.3 0.268 0.331 0.459 143 47 5.19 0.790 Contract: 1 Year 10.3 2008 39 46 117 28 5 0 4 11 0.239 -0.7 0.236 0.299 0.395 46 14 3.86 0.694 2009 40 20 43 11 2 0 2 4 0.258 0.9 0.264 0.328 0.430 18 6 4.79 0.758 Career 1999 7075 2165 350 8 439 785 0.302 647.2 0.306 0.375 0.544 3848 1444 7.35 0.919 Total Cost: $8,500,000 Marginal$/VORP: $793,495.15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bengie Molina - San Francisco Giants Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 32 130 457 124 19 0 15 27 0.251 14.0 0.271 0.312 0.415 190 59 4.43 0.727 2008 33 132 469 126 20 1 16 31 0.252 14.7 0.269 0.315 0.414 194 61 4.46 0.729 2009 34 137 477 129 20 1 14 27 0.248 12.5 0.270 0.309 0.404 193 60 4.28 0.713 Contract: 3 Years 41.2 2010 35 72 228 59 9 0 6 15 0.240 3.7 0.259 0.304 0.382 87 27 3.92 0.686 2011 36 28 70 18 3 0 2 4 0.236 0.7 0.255 0.300 0.369 26 8 3.71 0.669 Career 1333 4619 1257 198 5 137 241 0.249 123.8 0.272 0.308 0.406 1877 579 4.30 0.714 Total Cost: $16,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $364,538.83 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Two Unsigned Guys
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shea Hillenbrand - Actual Brock2/Pessimistic Version Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 73 247 70 14 1 8 12 0.259 7.1 0.284 0.316 0.438 108 34 4.84 0.754 2008 32 43 128 36 7 0 4 6 0.257 3.2 0.279 0.313 0.433 56 17 4.70 0.746 2009 33 15 37 10 2 0 1 3 0.251 0.6 0.268 0.322 0.401 15 5 4.41 0.723 2010 34 4 7 2 0 0 0 0 0.246 0.1 0.266 0.310 0.396 3 1 4.18 0.706 Career 1005 3723 1065 220 14 117 154 0.261 115.6 0.286 0.314 0.447 1664 523 4.92 0.761 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shea Hillenbrand - Full-Time in 2007 Version Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 31 140 473 134 26 1 15 22 0.259 13.6 0.284 0.316 0.438 207 65 4.84 0.754 2008 32 56 165 46 9 0 5 8 0.256 4.0 0.279 0.313 0.431 71 22 4.67 0.744 2009 33 26 63 17 3 0 2 4 0.249 0.9 0.268 0.315 0.401 25 8 4.32 0.716 2010 34 5 10 3 0 0 0 1 0.248 0.1 0.268 0.316 0.396 4 1 4.27 0.712 Career 1098 4014 1147 236 15 126 168 0.261 123.2 0.286 0.314 0.446 1790 563 4.91 0.760 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's Shea Hillenbrand. Doesn't look pretty, does it? One of the things Brock2 does is make playing time a meritocracy -- if a guy isn't producing, Brock2 assumes that the team picks up on this and limits his plate appearances accordingly. In Hillenbrand's case, he tanked last year after landing in San Francisco, bringing his season RC/27 down to 4.77 (which is below-average for a 1B). Because he's 31 and was below average last year, Brock2 systematically limited his playing time in the top projection. But I figure any team that signs Hillenbrand will play him no matter what, regardless of his production, so I forced the second projection to give him 140 games in 2007. The result wasn't very different -- Brock2 sees him washing out in the next couple years either way. Teams would be advised to consider this before signing him (I heard the Yankees had offered him 1 year at $5 million, but he declined, instead holding out for a multi-year deal -- a wise decision, based on these projections).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Marcus Giles Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 29 153 579 160 39 3 15 64 0.269 28.4 0.277 0.349 0.433 251 87 5.22 0.782 2008 30 149 578 160 37 2 12 64 0.264 24.3 0.277 0.349 0.412 238 83 4.98 0.761 2009 31 152 571 153 36 2 12 63 0.258 18.6 0.268 0.340 0.399 228 77 4.64 0.739 2010 32 152 569 147 34 2 10 62 0.249 11.9 0.259 0.332 0.377 215 71 4.23 0.709 2011 33 151 558 144 33 2 9 65 0.249 11.3 0.258 0.336 0.372 208 70 4.20 0.708 2012 34 151 553 142 32 2 8 58 0.244 7.8 0.256 0.327 0.364 201 66 4.00 0.691 2013 35 81 268 66 15 1 4 30 0.237 1.4 0.247 0.322 0.346 93 30 3.70 0.668 2014 36 31 81 20 4 0 1 9 0.233 0.0 0.243 0.316 0.337 27 9 3.52 0.653 Career 1696 6272 1709 397 26 143 689 0.262 248.1 0.273 0.345 0.413 2588 892 4.89 0.758 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last week, Marcus Giles was not offered arbitration by Atlanta, making him a free agent. That move would have been unthinkable a year ago, but Giles' production fell off last season in a big way, and John Schuerholz felt like he couldn't afford to spend $4-5 million on a declining player with a history of injuries (including a scare last season regarding a valve in his heart). It would have been a fiscally sound decision on the Braves' part... except for the fact that Giles isn't a declining player at all. Brock2 says that 2006 was a fluke decline (remember, this guy was one of the best 2B's around in 2005), and that Giles will bounce back with a quality season in 2007. Word is that San Diego has offered Giles a contract worth $3-4 million, which would be an outright steal at about $122,000 marginal $/VORP for the next couple years.
The Massive Extension
Vernon Wells - Toronto Blue Jays
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Age Games AB HITS DBL TRP HR BB EqA VORP AVG OBP SLG TB RC RC /25 OPS 2007 28 155 604 163 32 3 32 46 0.268 30.7 0.270 0.321 0.493 298 96 5.42 0.814 2008 29 158 613 165 34 3 35 51 0.272 35.0 0.269 0.325 0.506 310 101 5.64 0.831 2009 30 156 609 166 33 3 31 49 0.270 32.7 0.273 0.327 0.491 299 98 5.53 0.818 2010 31 156 595 162 32 3 30 50 0.269 31.0 0.272 0.328 0.486 289 95 5.47 0.814 2011 32 155 590 152 30 2 26 49 0.256 19.2 0.258 0.315 0.450 266 84 4.78 0.765 2012 33 154 576 147 29 2 24 53 0.255 17.3 0.255 0.318 0.439 253 81 4.69 0.757 2013 34 153 568 145 28 2 22 47 0.251 14.1 0.256 0.312 0.430 244 76 4.51 0.742 Contract 7 Years 180.0 2014 35 82 276 68 13 1 10 24 0.244 4.1 0.247 0.308 0.407 112 35 4.17 0.715 2015 36 47 139 34 6 0 5 12 0.238 0.9 0.242 0.302 0.391 54 16 3.90 0.693 2016 37 9 18 4 1 0 1 2 0.226 -0.2 0.228 0.292 0.359 7 2 3.39 0.651 Career 2045 7827 2138 440 40 356 614 0.267 377.7 0.273 0.326 0.476 3727 1215 5.34 0.802 Total Cost: $126,000,000 Marginal$/VORP: $687,283.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just last night, the Blue Jays inked CF Vernon Wells to a brobdingnagian 7-year, $126 million contract extension -- the sixth-largest contract in MLB history. Wells was being paid $5.6 million/year under his old contract, but would have been a free agent next winter. And rather than facing the prospect of either trading him at midseason or battling with other teams on the free agent market, Toronto opted to lock him up permanently. How does Brock2 evaluate their decision? Well, it doesn't look like the greatest move ever by marginal $/VORP, but it does compare favorably to the Soriano, Lee, Matthews, and Pierre deals, all of whom are outfielders of lesser ability and older age than Wells. Wells has had a bizarrely inconsistent career, alternating MVP-caliber seasons (2003 & 2006) with stunningly mediocre ones (2004 & 2005). Which Wells will show next year, especially given that he has a fat new contract? His 2007-2010 Brock2 lines (30+ VORP every year) are projected performances that anybody would like to have -- unless, of course, you're paying the going rate for 50-60 VORP seasons. Still, Wells is a quality player, a great defender in CF (his .905 zone rating ranked third in MLB last year), and he's got just enough unpredictability in him to throw down a few more 50-VORP years before he's done. It's not the greatest contract, but it's pretty good by the standards of this winter.
Well, that's all I've got. If you guys like the career projections, I can do some for players who aren't free agents as well. I'm also working on a projection system for pitchers, but that may prove more daunting. Anyway, I hope you liked the Brock2 projections, because I think they're one of the coolest innovations Bill James ever came up with, which is saying a lot.
