Bball3345/Drafts/DRays
[edit] Raise or Raze the Rays
Tim: It's been a tough season for the Devil Rays. Neil and I will attempt to analyze Tampa's year with every nugget of statistical knowledge we possess.
The events that unfolded in Tampa can not even be thought about without mentioning pitching. The sad excuse that was the Rays' arms. In spite of a duo of dominating youngsters (Kazmir, Shields), opponents scored over 900 runs on their staff. Although, pitching is at least partially dependent on defense. Maybe it was the butterfingered defensive play and limited defensive range that led to the massive amount of runs against.
What if pitching wasn't the problem? Tampa's lineup boasted Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, Jonny Gomes, Jorge Cantu, among others. Did the youngsters play up to par, or did they fail to perform? So, what aspect of the DRays play do you find most responsible for a season in the cellar?
Neil: Most responsible? Well, it sure as hell wasn't the offense. As we mentioned in what seems like another lifetime, the D-Rays' 2007 opening day lineup certainly had the talent to exceed the meager 4.25 runs per game they posted in 2006 -- and, sure enough, Tampa's hitters have been able to muster runs at a shockingly average rate of 4.84 runs per game this season! It's a miracle!
Chief among the architects of the Rays' offensive renaissance was... wait for it... Carlos Motherhumping Pena (!), who was signed as a minor league free agent before the year and didn't make the Devil Rays roster out of the spring, but was thrust into the lineup after a knee injury to Greg Norton on the last day of spring training. All Pena proceeded to do was hit 42 jacks, drive in 116 runs, slug .608, and get on base at a .401 clip. Unbe-freakin-lievable, if you ask me. Oh, and Carl Crawford (.315/.355/.466, 50 steals), B.J. Upton (.304/.387/.518, 21 steals), Brendan Harris (.286/.343/.434), Akinori Iwamura (.282/.354/.404), and Ty Wigginton (.275/.329/.458) had decent years at the plate, too. Plus, Delmon Young had a pretty nice season for a 21-year-old rookie (.294/.322/.418). So, yeah, there's a lot to like with this lineup. I mean, put them with a serviceable pitching staff, and you might have a semi-respectable team...
What's that? "Serviceable pitching staff"? Did I say something wrong? Hey, is that Manny Stiles I hear crying in the background?
Just for kicks and giggles, let's throw out a little trivia. Through 156 games, Tampa is on pace to allow 943 runs... The following is a complete list of MLB teams since 1901 to allow that many runs in a single season:
Year Team RA W L 1930 Philadelphia Phillies 1199 52 102 1996 Detroit Tigers 1103 53 109 1936 St. Louis Browns 1064 57 95 1936 Philadelphia Athletics 1045 53 100 1939 St. Louis Browns 1035 43 111 1929 Philadelphia Phillies 1032 71 82 1999 Colorado Rockies 1028 72 90 1937 St. Louis Browns 1023 46 108 1939 Philadelphia Athletics 1022 55 97 1911 Boston Rustlers 1021 44 107 1923 Philadelphia Phillies 1008 50 104 2000 Texas Rangers 974 71 91 2006 Kansas City Royals 971 62 100 2003 Texas Rangers 969 71 91 2001 Texas Rangers 968 73 89 1993 Colorado Rockies 967 67 95 1996 Colorado Rockies 964 83 79 1938 St. Louis Browns 962 55 97 1987 Cleveland Indians 957 61 101 1928 Philadelphia Phillies 957 43 109 1938 Philadelphia Athletics 956 53 99 1962 New York Mets 948 40 120 1997 Oakland Athletics 946 65 97 1934 Chicago White Sox 946 53 99 2000 Houston Astros 944 72 90 1996 California Angels 943 70 91
Welcome to the club, 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays!!
Tim, care to comment on the abomination that was Tampa's pitching and defense in 2007?
Tim: I was hoping you would ask that! As you pointed out above, the Rays are historically bad at allowing runs. Let me first look at the pitching staff, before I hit you with a shocking conclusion.
Here are the VORPs for the Rays pitching rotation this year:
- 45.4 (James Shields 31 GS)
- 44.2 (Scott Kazmir 33)
- 1.3 (Andrew Sonnanstine 21/ Jason Hammel 12)
- -12.2 (Edwin Jackson 30)
- -44.2 (J.P. Howell 9/ Jae Seo 10/ Casey Fossum 10)
That is a 9 win difference between the ace and the last man in the rotation. Shields and Kazmir pitched like aces. The rest of the rotation could have been substituted with three "replacement players" and improved the Rays record by 5-6 wins.
Still, how much of the pitching was the pitchers' fault and how much was the defense? Looking at the Rays ERA (5.55) vs. Fielding-Independent Pitching (4.80), we get a difference of 0.75. In case you are wondering, the average ERA and FIP is 4.51 for both. Tampa Bay goes from being the hands-down worst staff in ERA to being the third-worst when accounting for fielding. This is not a monumental leap, but something to keep in mind. To take this a step further, the DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio) for the Devil Rays is .658. In other words, the Devil Rays defense turns 65.8% of balls in play into outs. The league average is .687 and only one other team is as low as 70%. So maybe the bad pitching was actually a product of sub-sub-par defensive play.
No matter how you slice it, fielders just weren't getting to the ball. The pitching staff is letting up the league average 18% of line drives, so sharp liners aren't to blame. The DRays infield made only 178 Outs Outside of the Zone (OOZ). Their outfield made only 142 OOZ. Both of these numbers are near the bottom of the league. As well, fielders were mishandling balls in their fielding zone. The infield's Revised Zone Rating was .737 (league average: .776) and the outfield was at .850 (.870). While the pitching staff will be remembered for a disgusting performance in 2007, it may well be the defense responsible. Neil, you have any input on the Rays' defense, individually?
Neil: Sure. Let's start with the guys who at least tried using their gloves to help Tampa not suck so much: Carl Crawford led all left fielders in Zone Rating with .934, which basically means that 93.4% of the time a ball was hit to left field, Crawford turned it into an out. Great job, Carl! Also, Delmon Young acquitted himself pretty well in RF, ranking 9th in baseball with an .874 ZR, and I guess they had some pitchers who weren't that bad at fielding, like James Shields. (In case you can't tell, I'm reaching at this point.)
Okay, now the bad: pretty much everyone else. Catcher Dioner Navarro was at least a mixed bag -- he tied for the MLB lead among catchers with 13 errors, added 6 passed balls, and didn't really help an already-overmatched staff with his game-calling (his 5.50 CERA was easily the worst in baseball), but he did gun down would-be basestealers at a pretty decent clip (30.2% CS).
Meanwhile, the rest of the team was a total defensive nightmare. Brendan Harris was a bad second baseman (.800 ZR was in the the bottom 1/4 of 2Bs) and an absolute disaster at shortstop (.756 ZR would have been the worst in baseball had he played enough innings to qualify); Akinori Iwamura was a disappointment at the hot corner (while his .974 fielding percentage led all third basemen, he badly lacked the range to actually get to balls and make plays -- his .760 ZR was 8th-worst among qualified MLB 3Bs); Pena, while pretty decent at turning double plays (for whatever that's worth), was error-prone and posted the fourth-worst ZR (.807) of any qualified MLB 1B; B.J. Upton underwhelmed at both CF and 2B (bottom 1/4 in ZR at each position); Ty Wigginton was no better before being shipped to Houston at midseason; and Elijah Dukes threatened his ex-wife far more than he did potential base hits to center field.
So, there you have it. With almost all of their regular players ranking among the worst fielders in baseball at their respective positions, it's really no wonder that the Rays turned in such a pathetic performance on defense. Their "glovework", coupled with the fact that the vast majority of their innings were being pitched by players who have very little business being in the majors, meant that the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays had basically no chance of competing in the East -- or even flirting with .500, for that matter. Here's some food for thought: they could have matched the offensive output of the Tigers (the 2nd-best offense in the AL) and still finished several games below .500! It was a disgrace, and my only question for you, Tim, is this: where the devil do these Rays go from here?
Tim: Well, I would like to say that the Rays just had bad luck and that they will certainly improve next year. However, this would not be true. They were 35-34 in close games, their Pythagorean wins matched their record, and their batting average with runners in scoring position was the same as their overall batting average. So, bad luck was not the culprit; they were just terrible.
That said, if Delmon Young is as good as scouts say, then he will surely improve. Crawford should rebound from what was a slight down year for him. Aki played fairly well for his first year in the bigs. He should be able to provide solid production for them from whatever position he fits into next year. B.J. Upton found his big league stroke and needs to be a permanent fixture in the lineup. Outfield gives him the best shot for that. Reid Brignac and Evan Longoria need to be called-up as soon as they are ready to anchor the left side of the infield.
On the not so bright side, Carlos Pena cannot realistically be expected to repeat this season's monster production. They don't have any good options at catcher. Who knows if that horrendous defense will improve, or if that is something the Rays will have to live with.
Since the hitting really wasn't the problem this year, does the pitching have any room for improvement? Well, Shields and Kazmir can be counted on to be a strong 1-2 punch. Other than that, no one from their bullpen or the rest of their starting rotation provided big-league production. First-rounder Jeff Niemann should be on his way up next year. Wade Davis and Jacob McGee are the future, but they may not be ready at any point in 2008. Because of this, the Rays are going to have to go outside of their system and potentially spend some money to bring in pitching that would improve upon the scrubs they sent to the mound this year. With the offense locked in, any offseason spending should go toward pitching. Unfortunately, pitching is not cheap to come by on the free agent market. Luckily, young pitching talent is forcing its way to the big leagues, so the Rays will not need to sign themselves into a long-term deal with any free agent pitchers.
Neil, do you see the Rays improving on this year's record, or do they spend another year at the bottom of the AL East?
Neil: While it's generally bad form to comment on next season when the current one isn't even over yet, I just don't see any way on earth that this team competes in 2008. Yes, the hitting shouldn't be a significant problem anymore (even when Pena regresses to the mean), but there's no relief in sight for this pitching staff and defense.
Not to belabor the point, but here's one more note on just how wretched this defense was in 2007. These are the worst defenses in baseball since 1950, according to The Hardball Times' definition of Defensive Efficiency:
Year Club G W L RA DER 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 158 65 93 926 0.646 1993 Colorado Rockies 162 67 95 967 0.652 1997 Oakland Athletics 162 65 97 946 0.655 1996 Boston Red Sox 162 85 77 921 0.656 1974 Chicago Cubs 162 66 96 826 0.656 1999 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 162 69 93 913 0.656 1999 Colorado Rockies 162 72 90 1028 0.657 1996 Houston Astros 162 82 80 792 0.658 2000 Texas Rangers 162 71 91 974 0.659 1994 Colorado Rockies 117 53 64 638 0.659 1998 Texas Rangers 162 88 74 871 0.660 2005 Kansas City Royals 162 56 106 935 0.660 1996 Detroit Tigers 162 53 109 1103 0.660 1994 Seattle Mariners 112 49 63 616 0.661 1975 Chicago Cubs 162 75 87 827 0.661 1995 Pittsburgh Pirates 144 58 86 736 0.662 1994 Texas Rangers 114 52 62 697 0.662 1950 St. Louis Browns 154 58 96 916 0.662 1986 Seattle Mariners 162 67 95 835 0.663 1977 Atlanta Braves 162 61 101 895 0.663
That's right, these Devil Rays had literally the worst single-season defense in baseball since 1950! And you thought Barry Bonds was the only one who made history in 2007...
Just to emphasize, though, the pitching staff was equally revolting. Here are the worst single-season team ERAs since 1950, adjusted for park factors:
Year Club ERA PPF aERA 1996 Detroit Tigers 6.38 101 6.32 1995 Minnesota Twins 5.76 100 5.76 2001 Texas Rangers 5.71 100 5.71 2000 Chicago Cubs 5.25 92 5.71 1994 Minnesota Twins 5.68 101 5.62 2000 Baltimore Orioles 5.37 96 5.59 2004 Cincinnati Reds 5.19 93 5.58 2003 Detroit Tigers 5.30 95 5.58 2005 Kansas City Royals 5.49 99 5.55 1997 Oakland Athletics 5.49 99 5.55 1950 Philadelphia Athletics 5.49 99 5.55 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5.58 102 5.47 1994 Texas Rangers 5.45 100 5.45 2005 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5.39 99 5.44 1997 San Diego Padres 4.99 92 5.42 1996 California Angels 5.31 98 5.42 1996 Oakland Athletics 5.20 96 5.42 2006 Baltimore Orioles 5.35 99 5.40 1995 Detroit Tigers 5.49 102 5.38 2004 Kansas City Royals 5.15 96 5.36
Tampa was 12th-worst since 1950.
All in all, it was an historically bad showing of pitching and defense that sank the Devil Rays in 2007, and as Tim mentioned above, most of their top pitching prospects are still a year (or more) away from being ready for The Show. In other words, we've just razed the Rays in a big way, and unless they make a big splash in the free agent pitching market (which is doubtful), we'll probably be razing them all over again next year -- same time, same place.
