Baseball Trading Deadline 2007, who are the Buyers, and who are the Sellers?
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by user Kelsdad
In every baseball season, the month of July carries with it the end of the month, unrestricted trading deadline. (The month of August has a restricted trading deadline, but that's for another article). The first sign you've been traded is showing up in the clubhouse and your locker is empty, except for a note telling you "Skip" wants to see you in his office. As you're walking across the locker room, your Blackberry rings with a number containing what appears to be the area code for Tampa. When you enter his office, he hands you a plane ticket, says "sorry about this", and asks for your parking pass. But the promise of trades usually is an empty one. The era of free agency has taken care of that. Why make a deal with a couple of young prospects involved when you can throw a boat load of cash at someone in the off-season, effectively getting him for nothing? Why make a deal for the stretch run when the guy has a no trade and wants a guarantee of an multi year extension even though he's currently hitting .199?
The lack of activity notwithstanding, the beginning of the month is full of rumors, most bordering on ridiculous, ( Bobby Abreu for Jermaine Dye), the can't happen ( Eric Gagne to the Phillies) and the occasional sensible one, ( Mark Buehrle to the Mets for Lastings Milledge and a player to be named later).
For the record, the White Sox are dumping salary, they're not going to pick up someone who makes twice as much as the guy they're getting rid of. Gagne has a limited no-trade in his contract which lists ten teams he can't be traded to, the Phillies are on the list.
In order to begin making sense of all this, and to determine which rumors have substance to them, you first have to determine which teams are buyers and which are sellers. On the surface, the best way is to consider all teams still with postseason hopes to be buyers, and all not in contention to be sellers. Using this initial idea, the buyers right now are the; Padres, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, Braves, Phillies and Marlins in the National League, and the Angels, Mariners, A's, Indians, Tigers, Twins, Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays in the American League. Everyone else should be considered sellers, teams with no playoff shot, trying to unload money, or restocking for 2008.
Not every team with playoff aspirations are in the buyers market however. Determining these teams is a bit tougher and requires some research, but those teams who fall into the seller category under "budgetary concerns" would not be buyers. The Diamondbacks, for example, have the fifth lowest payroll in baseball, and the only one of the five teams to be over .500. There are cracks starting to show in their on-field performance lately, and, unfortunately, also in the clubhouse. While the Jermaine Dye to Arizona for Carlos Quentin and Brandon Lyon rumor has died pretty much completely at this point, I now consider the Dbacks to be sellers, not buyers. The same could be said for the Marlins and Twins, even though they still have a shot, their budgets won't allow them to add what they need to make a final push, even for two months.
Some other teams on the buyers list, like the Red Sox and Tigers, feel they have what it takes right now to get to the World Series. If someone made them an offer they couldn't refuse I'm sure they would take it, but Theo Epstein and Dave Dombrowski aren't making any calls at this point. You could conceivably have the Brewers and A's on this list as well, they have no current injury concerns and are relatively well balanced.
From here, all you do now is figure out what the buyer needs, the Yankees need a bat, preferably a lefty first baseman, but if a righty outfielder was available, they would make a move. Getting a solid middle relief guy wouldn't hurt either. The Padres and Dodgers are pitching stocked, so they both need a bat. The Padres need a third-baseman, the Dodgers a righthanded bat, they are overstocked in lefties. The Angels need a catcher, preferably a righthander. Like the Dodgers, they are top heavy on the left side.
Now from the sellers side. The White Sox are looking to dump salary, which means their minor leagues are off limits. You might get a prospect if you agree to take Jim Thome's contract. Jermaine Dye and Mark Buerhle are definitely on the market, any team looking for a shortstop could get Juan Uribe for next to nothing as well. The Reds would like to unload some salary, with Adam Dunn's pending free agency counting towards their future budget, and Ken Griffey Jr.'s salary counting towards the current one.
Other teams, such as the previously mentioned Diamondbacks, and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, are sellers in part because of budget but also because of surplus. The DRays have the best young group of outfielders in all of baseball, Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes, Carl Crawford, Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli. All of them have played in the majors this year, and each team can only start three outfielders at a time. The Rays are also loaded on the left side of the infield, with Akinori Iwamura and Brendan Harris currently starting, and Ben Zobrist, Reid Brignac and Evan Longoria not too far away in the minor leagues. I think someone will end up with Crawford before the deadline, and whoever gets him can start printing playoff tickets.
The final group of sellers are the teams who have something someone else wants. Badly. How much would the Met s give Baltimore for Brian Roberts? How much would Texas want for Mark Teixeira? Would the Yankees part with prize pitching prospect Phillip Hughes to get Teixeira? How about the Marlins, they can get alot of young talent, and probably some cash, for either Dontrelle Willis or Miguel Cabrera. Would the Giants consider trading Barry Bonds after he breaks the homerun record?
So the next time you hear some sports hack on the radio talking about something, think about it for a minute. Does it make sense? If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. Of the teams mentioned, is one a buyer and one a seller? Remember, trades aren't made between two buyers, so the Yankees and Dodgers won't be trading, at least not this year. Did the reporter make it up so he could increase his call-in volume, thus pleasing his sponsors?
The days of the blockbuster deals are long gone, but there is still some hope out there we'll see some activity. So here's hoping the Yankees get Teixeira without destroying the farm system, let's hope they're at least a player in the Buehrle sweepstakes, let's hope the Red Sox do nothing then lose Ortiz, Ramirez, and Beckett for the season on August first. For Christof's sake, I hope the Phillies find a team to take Pat Burrell. For DNL and Joshkross, stop being greedy, the Mets are getting Pedro back, that's almost like making a deal. For Ekom, let's hope the stinkin' Devil Rays aren't contracted after the season. And most of all, have fun with it.
