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Named ArmchairGM Beat Reporter of the Year for 2007More By Kelsdad
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Minor League Prospect Profile: Milwaukee's Mat Gamel
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Make no mistake, however, the Stars, who lost the first half Southern League title on the final day, are driven by offense. And the driver of that offense has been third baseman Mat Gamel. Gamel, the Brewers fourth round pick in the 2005 draft out of Cibola Junior College in Jacksonville, Florida, left spring training raking and hasn't stopped. Gamel, the Brewers fifth rated minor league prospect heading into the season, is coming off a solid 2007 season which culminated with being named the MVP of the Hawaii Winter League, an offseason developmental league for lower ranked prospects similar in structure to the Arizona Fall League. Gamel was the Florida State League's All-Star third baseman in a season highlighted by a FSL record 33 game hitting streak. Finishing at .300/9/60 in 128 games, the Brewers were puzzled by Gamel's lack of power and by his minor league leading total of 53 errors at third.
Extensive work in Hawaii, and again at the Brewers Instructional League just outside Phoenix, had the Brewers hopeful his defense had improved enough where he could be considered a legitimate major league prospect heading into this season. The defense has improved somewhat, although 22 errors in 83 games won't make anyone forget Brooksie anytime soon, it his offense which has gotten the attention of everyone.
Anyone can look at a players batting average, or ERA, or assists and say he's a good or bad player by how the numbers compare to everyone else's. One or two statistics, however, don't tell the complete story, they can actually mislead you in the wrong direction. Let's take a look at Gamel's stats so far this year, hopefully I can show you just how special his season is, there aren't many guys who have posted full season numbers like this, never mind 83 games worth.
Catcher Angel Salome ranks second currently in the Southern League batting race at .335. Gamel leads...at .383, a 53 point difference. Gamel would have to go 0-63 for Salome to pass him in the batting race. Gamel also leads the league in runs scored, hits, (by 13), is tied for the league in doubles, (28), is second in triples, (by one), third in homers, (by 4), leads in RBI, (by 9), in total bases, (by a whopping 45), has an impressive 38-60 BB/K ratio, second in on base, leads in slugging and OPS, with a ridiculous 1.084. Not bad, huh? Trust me, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
As I mentioned, it's only when you look inside the stats do you really see whether a player's "surface" stats are legitimate or not. The average is great, but how are his "splits"? Splits are defined as taking the batting average and chopping up into little pieces, like how does he hit on the road as opposed to at home? Look at Todd Helton's career average and you go wow!, it's only when you realize his lifetime average at Coors Field is almost 100 points higher than his road average do you realize just how inflated, and unimpressive, his career average is.
As I do every day during baseball season, I'm sitting around this morning reading news feeds when I noticed something, while impressive, appeared to be a misprint. I turned on the computer and checked the numbers, which indeed were incorrect. At the same time, I noticed something else which literally took my breath away. Ready? In 93 at bats, the lefty swinging Gamel is hitting .409 against lefthanded pitchers!! That, my friends, is unbelievable. By contrast, his more polished and well known teammate, the righthanded hitting Matt LaPorta is hitting a pale by comparison .257 against southpaws. (LaPorta's season average is an impressive .290, impressive until you realize he trails Gamel by 93 points!
Ready for more numbers? OK, how about .377 at home vs. .388 on the road, in the same number of games. Still not convinced?, try .397 during day games and .377 at night, .379 in April, .387 in May and .381 in June, .387 with the bases empty, .379 with runners on, and .333 with runners in scoring position.
Ladies and gentleman, boys and girls, those numbers define consistency. He's not an automatic out against lefties, he's more dangerous now, after 83 games, than he was on opening day. I know it's Double A, but those numbers are impressive in slow pitch softball, most of you never hit that well on MLB2K.
But what do they all mean? Well, Gamel's standing in the system hasn't changed. Matter of fact, the Brewers selected catcher/third baseman Brett Lawrie with their first pick in this year's draft. The Brewers plan on starting his professional career as a catcher, either way, he will move past Gamel on the depth chart once he signs. It all goes to defense for Gamel. The Brewers in 2007 had the worst infield defense in the major leagues, so bad was it Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun took his 32 errors and his lead glove to left field. If one or two positions on the diamond were less than golden, that would be acceptable, when you only have two average to above average defenders, that is a disaster. Gamel has a good body, (6"0", 205) but doesn't have the foot speed to even consider as an outfield possibility, his only option would appear to be at first base, where he is blocked the the equally inept Prince Fielder.
The immediate future for Mat Gamel, in my opinion, would be nothing. Meaning, if Huntsville remains in playoff contention, he will stay there, (along with LaPorta, Salome and Cole Gillespie until the season ends in mid-September. Only then would he likely receive a call to Milwaukee, where he'll spend the final two weeks living and learning the life of a major leaguer, and maybe get the experience of a pennant race as well. It's possible the Brewers would break up the posse and send someone to Triple A, or even Milwaukee, early, most likely that player would be Matt LaPorta.
A trip to Arizona and the Fall League appears likely after the season, the experience paid big dividends for LaPorta, his defense in left field improved quite a bit, and he got 75 or so at bats against quality pitching.
Mat Gamel has already had a special season, another two months or so of the same production and it will go from special to legendary. From your friends at ArmchairGM, Mat, good luck dude, we're watching.
- Kelsdad covers the Minor League Beat for ArmchairGM
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