Alex Holowczak vs. Davis21wylie NHL Playoff Predictions: Conference Finals Edition

by users Davis21wylie and Alex Holowczak

Introduction

Neil says: Hello again, hockey fans! In case you missed it last time, Alex Holowczak and I are having a little challenge to decide whether an American or a Brit knows Canada's game best. Here's how it works: Alex is making his picks based purely on intuition; I'm making mine based on a statistical method called the Pythagorean Formula. For every correct series winner picked, we get one point, and if we pick the right number of games, it's worth another bonus point. In the first round, we each picked seven of the eight series correctly, and got two in the right number of games, resulting in a tie at 9 points apiece. In Round Two, I picked every series winner correctly (Alex missed his Vancouver pick), but Alex picked the correct # of games in one more series than I did, so we are, once again, tied for the lead. Will the Conference Finals break the tie? Read on to find out...

Before the picks, though, I'd like to show you my NHL Power Rankings, updated to include data through the second round. Like last time, using the Pythagorean Formula I derived a "true winning percentage" for every team in the NHL in 2006-07. I then adjusted for each team's strength of schedule, and -- voilà! -- Power rankings! Here are the current numbers:

Armed with these "true winning percentages," I can use them to construct the probability of any team beating any other team, using something called the log5 formula. Using that formula and some combinatorics, I can also derive the probability that either team in a series matchup will win 4 games first, as well as the most likely number of games in which that outcome will occur. Math is awesome, isn't it?

So, here we go. I'm pleased to present our predictions and probabilities for the Conference Finals of the 2007 NHL Playoffs...

Conference Finals

Alex says:

Okay, Conference Finals time. My Canucks gamble backfired in the last round, so I’m still lucky to be tied coming into the last three predictions.

Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings v Anaheim Ducks

Lidstrom

Alex says:

The Ducks were hugely impressive in beating Vancouver. I love Teemu Selanne for some reason, and their defence of Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer is perfect. Also, Jean-Sebastien Giguere has been excellent this season, probably as a result of Pronger and Niedermayer. The Wings have a better offense than most though in the NHL. With the likes of Todd Bertuzzi, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Robert Lang, and improvements from Johan Franzen and Mikael Samuelsson, I think the Wings offense is more than a match. The best goalie left in the playoffs is Dominik Hasek, and Nicklas Lidstrom has been superb in this series. With veterans in the side like Chris Chelios and Mathieu Schneider, the younger stars like Andreas Lilja on the defense can perform. So even on a team with Selanne, Chris Kunitz and Andy McDonald, I think the Wings will win. I would never be able to go against them anyway, as I don’t want to support them losing.

Decision: Red Wings in 6.

Niedermayer

Neil says:

This is going to be an incredible series, a defensive struggle between two outstanding, battle-tested, veteran teams. As you probably already know, Anaheim's strength is their blueline corps, which boasts two Norris Trophy candidates in Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, as well as less-heralded (but still effective) guys like Francois Beauchemin and Sean O'Donnell. It will be a sizable task for Detroit's forwards (who haven't exactly been overwhelming so far in the playoffs, although they did play better against San Jose) to beat the Ducks' D on a consistent basis, especially when you consider that G Jean-Sebastien Giguere has also been playing extremely well. But despite these obstacles, the quartet of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Holmstrom, and Mikael Samuelsson must play as well here as they did against San Jose to give Detroit a chance in this series.

Of course, we can't forget that the Red Wings' strength is their D, too -- namely Nicklas Lidstrom (Detroit's best D-man since Red Kelly), but also Danny Markov, Andreas Lilja, and ageless wonder Chris Chelios. Vancouver proved in the conference semifinals that Anaheim's top forwards can be slowed down by the combination of an above-average defense and a top-notch goalie; I wonder if the reverse will hold true in this series? Detroit certainly hopes so, because that will be their approach to shutting down the Ducks O: force them to beat their top-notch D and an above-average netminder in Dominik Hasek. Of course, calling Hasek "above-average" might be selling him short -- he has really elevated his game in these playoffs (at age 42, no less!), and could be the deciding factor in this series. If the Dominator keeps channeling the Hasek of old and matches Giguere save-for-save, Detroit will have a very good chance to punch their ticket to the Cup Finals. One key factor in Anaheim's favor, though, is the season-ending broken wrist Detroit's Mathieu Schneider received in Game 5 vs. San Jose, as his absence will lessen the impact of Detroit's defense.

At first glance, the matchups seem to favor Anaheim... but they seemed to favor San Jose as well, and the Wings rolled all over the Sharks in Games 2-6 of the semis. More to the point, Anaheim seems like an even less formidable opponent for Detroit than San Jose was. The bottom line is that Detroit is the strongest team in the West, and while this series will be close, the Red Wings seem poised to return to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 2002.

Decision: Red Wings in 7.

Eastern Conference

Buffalo Sabres v Ottawa Senators

Drury

Alex says:

The regular season saw Buffalo dominate. Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek, Daniel Briere, Chris Drury and Maxim Afinogenov have been excellent. The defense is good, but fallable at times, although Ryan Miller has been great in goal in the playoffs. The Senators have been in cruise control so far. Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson are as good an offensive line as you’ll get, and I think that they are the key for the Senators. Mike Comrie has put up good numbers too, and I think their defense has more depth. I also rate Ray Emery above Miller, just about. The key factor in this decision though is previous series. The Sabres should have lost to the Rangers, in my opinion, whereas the Senators have won easily so far. But the Senators have more class. This is a difficult one to call, but I’m going to go with my initial instinct, because of form, and the fact that in the playoffs, defence outweighs attack usually.

Decision: Senators in 7.

Heatley

Neil says:

As good a matchup as Detroit-Anaheim is going to be, this series might be even better. It's no secret that these two squads don't like each other, especially after Chris Neil's brutal hit on Chris Drury in their February 22nd tilt (which in turn led to this awesome brawl/goalie fight). And the stakes are higher than ever for each team at this point in the season, so the bad blood should be flowing early and often in this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Aren't bitter rivalries great? Of course they are. Now, let's break this one down...

First things first, everyone knows that Buffalo has a great, tememdously deep offense. But why no hype for Ottawa's O? The Sens' top line of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley absolutely torched New Jersey's defense/goaltending package -- one that is vastly superior to Buffalo's -- in Ottawa's 5-game conference semifinal romp. How, exactly, does the Sabre D (a group that really isn't anything special) expect to slow down Ottawa's best line for the 22 minutes per game they're on the ice? That unenviable question is all yours, Lindy Ruff. The good news for Buffalo is that Ottawa's offense is not all that deep -- behind that top line, they have precious few real offensive threats at their disposal -- so if the Sabres' top D pairing of Toni Lydman and Henrik Tallinder can weather the Wrath of Heatley, it will take a lot of pressure off of the rest of this team... especially G Ryan Miller. While Miller was often brilliant in Buffalo's triumph over New York, one has to wonder how much longer he can withstand the onslaughts the Sabre D constantly subjects him to (he has faced more than 32 shots in 6 of his 10 playoff games so far this year).

But, back to Buffalo's offense. They were outstanding all season long, and they were good against an overmatched Islanders team in Round 1... However, against the Rangers, there were times where they looked suspiciously like mere mortals -- except of course for Drury, whose unblemished record of pure clutchitude grows with each and every playoff season. (A player on a Buffalo-based pro sports team is clutch? Who knew?) Anyway, the Rangers proved in Round 2 that Buffalo's high-powered attack can at least be slowed down, which must come as a relief to an Ottawa team whose defense, while deep, has been known to give an uneven effort in their own zone from time to time (other than Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips, who have been great all playoffs long). If the Sens' D can hold up their end of the bargain, and if Ray Emery can do his best Henrik Lundqvist impression, it will go a long way toward giving Ottawa the edge in this series. Another "X factor" for Ottawa will be the offensive contributions they get from their blueliners; as noted above, Ottawa's forwards are not particularly strong offensively beyond their top 3, but the defensive triumvirate of Wade Redden, Tom Preissing, and Joe Corvo have the ability to support their forwards by chipping in timely goals and assists, which could help neutralize the Buffalo fowards' scoring edge.

All things considered, the key matchup here will be Emery and the Ottawa D vs. Buffalo's offense. You know the Sabres are going to give up their share of goals to Alfredsson & Co. (Ottawa's got a lot more scoring pop than either of the New York teams Buffalo's faced so far), so the outcome of this series will hinge on whether or not Buffalo's powerful offensive attack will be able to match that output and score consistently on the Senators. I say they won't, because Ottawa's D is finally rounding into shape late in the season. In the end, Ottawa's superior two-way game will be the difference in this series, and the Senators will finally break through and make it to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Decision: Senators in 6.

Well, those are our picks, we really hope you enjoyed reading them. Be sure to stay tuned for more updates on our challenge, and until next time, enjoy the world's fastest sport!