A New Hope: The 2008 New York Mets
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by DNL
Optimism is, probably, not something my fellow Mets fan can find right now. But with 2007 over, I decided to simply look forward to 2008, and what I'd do if I were running this team.
I'm taking Willie Randolph, Manager, as a given, even though I have nothing good to say about him.
What Stays, and What Goes
Three guys are locks to return as starters -- Pedro Martinez, John Maine, and Oliver Perez. That's a solid top three, and I'm happy starting the process with them as anchors.
El Duque is under contract as well, at a very reasonable $6.5 million. I keep him on this team, but in what capacity is hard to say. He's the wild-card in my formula -- I'm willing to roll the dice with him as the 4th/5th starter if I can't nail down a better option.
Mike Pelfrey and, to a criminally lesser degree, Phil Humber both had starting opportunities in 2007, and are also in the mix.
The easy parts of the bullpen: Jorge Sosa, Pedro Feliciano, and if healthy, Duaner Sanchez (remember him?) should return to the radioactive middle relief corps. Billy Wagner stays, too. I look at the non-Wagner three as follows:
After that, we have to look outside. That's right -- everyone else (basically) goes.
Tom Glavine has a $9 million player option with some escalators which may make it worth $13m. It comes with $3 million a buy out, and he has a no-trade clause. The early buzz is that he's going to decline the option, which is good for all involved. After Game 162's performance, there's no way fans will tolerate his return, and he is not worth the $6-10m extra it will cost us if he stays. Here's to hoping -- as expected -- that he does not.
The unholy triumvirate of Guillermo Mota, Scott Schoeneweis, and Aaron Heilman must all find their way elsewhere next year. Unfortunately, Mota is due $3.2 million next year and Scott Scho about $6m over the course of the next two years. Mota and Scooter I'm willing to release if I can't dump; Heilman should fetch a decent prospect, given that he's still pre-arbitration and has aspirations of starting. But I don't expect, nor even hold out hope, of acquiring any Major League-ready talent for any of the three.
After that, the motley crew of unmentionables and filler is, as typically so, fungible, and I think that's (correctly) Omar's approach. I think that's acceptable so long as one is willing to trust players like Willie Collazo when the rest of the team is on the DL, but that, again, goes back to the Randloph problem.
For the batters, let's get the easy stuff out of the way: Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and, absent a shockingly good offer, Jose Reyes stays put. I exercise Moises Alou's incredibly reasonable option and pencil him in for 100 games. Lastings Milledge patrolls right, as he should have for most of 2007. Shawn Green is gone, as is Jose Valentin.
The harder questions? Even though I'm a big Luis Castillo fan -- I opt for the cheaper, arguably at this point better option in Ruben Gotay. On the other hand, I'm sticking with Carlos Delgado. Call it a gut feeling. Call it foolishness. It's a mix between the former and the fiscal realities: Delgado is due a lot of money, some of which the Mets aren't going to be able to eat that and have enough money/tradebait to reasonably improve on his numbers, even if he fails to "return" to 2006 form. Check out the potential first baseman on the free agent wire, and you'll see what I mean.
Catcher is the hardest part, with both Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro as free agents, and few solid options out there on the free agent wire. I'm not, at all, a Lo Duca fan. While I appreciate his fiery temperment and gamer mentality, that's no replacement for being, you know, good. He's a well-below average defensive catcher whose OBP and SLG is a derivative of his batting average, so when he doesn't get the bloops and bleeders going his way, he's a huge liability. Castro is a plus catcher when used as a backup, but his 2007 line -- 11 homers in 144 AB -- could earn him a large salary for another team.
The bench is, thankfully, easier, with the hardest problem being catcher, assuming Castro leaves. Endy Chavez and Carlos Gomez make up my outfield, with an eye toward Gomez replacing Alou. Marlon Anderson aquitted himself quite nicely as the Mets righty off-the-bench/super utility guy, and I think he comes back in that role. I bring back Damion Easley as my utility 2B/3B/emerency OF. Everyone else is junk, and I really never want to see David Newhan take another plate appearance at Shea unless he's wearing road grays.
New Blood
Before we go shopping, we have to figure out our needs.
We've nailed down three spots in the rotation. I like Sosa in the long-man role, as he's able to keep a bad start from becoming an unwinnable game, but isn't really going to be a guy you turn to get nail down one out in a high-leverage situation. Wagner stays the closer, and I slot Feliciano in a one IP, high leverage role. I'm discounting Duaner Sanchez altogether, much like the 2007 Mets rightfully planned on playing without Pedro.
That means, as far as the pitching staff is concerned, I want six-to-seven more pitchers:
- Two starters
- Two more high-leverage, one IP guys. Willie likes to (mis-)use them by having them go 1++ innings, so I'm leaning toward making this three players. The only problem? I don't think there are three available for the price they'll take.
- A LOOGY. Honestly, I'd take Scho in this role -- but I think there's too much distrust in him from the fans, and I don't think Willie knows how to use a LOOGY effectively.
- A righty who can come into the game with runners on and get an out. Chad Bradford filled this role in 2005; Joe Smith failed at it in 2006.
- If I can't get a third solid RP, I'll take a warm body with options -- someone I can shuttle between AAA and the bigs.
The good news is that for those six spots, I have at least three, and potentially five or even six (!) players who can fill them: El Duque, Pelfrey, Humber, Collazo, Carlos Muniz, and Kevin Mulvey. That assumes that 2007 draft pick Eddie Kunz is not yet available, which truly may be a false assumption. I'm also willing to, but not keen on, giving Joe Smith the "warm body" role.
I'd probably fill both starting spots with Duque/Pelfrey/Humber unless I can nail down a significant improvement. Looking at the free agent list, it's slim pickings. Livan Hernandez would be a welcome addition if cheap, but really, that's probably it. MLB Trade Rumors suggests that the Mets could land Johan Santana (with Jason Bartlett) for a Reyes/Gomes/Pelfrey package, but if that's the price, I'm saying no.
How one fills two spots with three pitchers is a Houdini-esque feat, until you realize that El Duque and Pedro are, realistically, good for 1.5 seasons combined. Assuming that a few other spot starts open up, I plug Pelfrey in the 5-hole and send Humber to AAA -- expecting him to make a start as early as May 1. However, given this pseudo-luxury, I'm going to be active on the trade wires, hoping to spin either Pelfrey or Humber (combined with others, such as Heilman and Mulvey/Kunz) into a solid SP. I don't expect to get Santana, but a Joe Blanton would be a good addition.
Building the bullpen is an even more arduous task, and my general feeling is to avoid free agents and instead go with discards and pseudo-prospects. I like the idea of a relief pitcher salary cap -- no more than a one year, $2m deal for any RP other than a closer. Why? Because RPs are notoriously flukely, and you do not want to be in the unfortunate position of releasing a guy in the middle of a multi-year deal, knowing full well that next year, he could be lights out. For this reason, I lean toward promoting Mulvey and Collazo, using Joe Smith as my fill-in guy, and trying to nail down a bargain FA or two. It's not ideal, by any means, and honestly, I do not see room for solid improvement.
Going to the batters, then, well, yuck.
Adam Dunn, according to virtually everyone, can't play 1B. And I don't want any of the other guys who are free agents. So as above, welcome back, Carlos Delgado.
That fills up our infield and outfield, with the exception of backup SS and backup 1B. I like Mark Sweeney off the bench -- he can play an adequate 1B, is a good left-handed bat off the bench, and probably won't cost more than $800,000. So I definitely make a play at him. Anderson Hernandez is probably a good enough backup SS -- not ideal, but really, what does one hope to get out of backup SS? I keep him at AAA and bring him up on an as-needed basis. Gotay and fill in at SS if need be to give Reyes an occassional off-day, with Easley or Anderson playing 2B.
Catcher is a nightmare. The only guy worth anything mentioning is Jorge Posada, who I have to assume is going to play in the Bronx if he's going to stay in New York. If the Tigers do not excersize Ivan Rodriguez's option, I nevertheless avoid him like the plague. Since 2005, his OBPs have been .290, .332, and .294. That's awful. I'd prefer Yorvit Torrealba given that he'll cost about 10% of the price. I try and retain Castro as a backup catcher, especially if I can convince Willie to use him as a pinch hitter, too, but I think that's a waste of my breath. Or maybe I take a stab at Jose Molina, who in the very least puts up exceptional defense. In fact, he's basically a cheaper version of Pudge with even less plate prowess. Honestly, I have no idea, but I'm willing to take a step back and go with a bargain "catch and throw" guy instead of fooling myself into thinking that catcher is going to make or break this team offensively.
So, let's assume I get a Torrealba/Castro platoon of sorts.
The Team
It's a 26-man roster, but that's because in April, the Mets will probably go with a four-man rotation; and with my young bullpen, I can shuttle guys to AAA and back with virtual impunity. Smith, Mulvey, Collazo, and Pelfrey will all have options, and I intend to move them around.
Rotation (5):
- Pedro Martinez
- Oliver Perez
- John Maine
- Orlando Hernandez
- Mike Pelfrey
I think there's real value to moving Pelfrey at this point for a better SP, but until that presents itself, the above is what I'm going with.
Bullpen (7):
- Billy Wagner
- Pedro Feliciano
- Free Agent TBD; ideally Scott Linebrink
- Kevin Mulvey
- Willie Collazo
- Jorge Sosa
- Joe Smith
Eddie Kunz, again, may be a possibility.
Lineup (8):
- Jose Reyes, SS
- Ruben Gotay, 2B (maybe flip-flop w/Milledge)
- Carlos Beltran, CF
- David Wright, 3B
- Moises Alou, LF
- Carlos Delgado, 1B
- Lastings Milledge, RF
- Torrealba/Castro, C
Bench (6):
- Marlon Anderson
- Mark Sweeney
- Carlos Gomez
- Damion Easley
- Endy Chavez
- Torrealba/Castros
Minor League Call-Up Crew:
- Phillip Humber
- Anderson Hernandez
The Sad Truth
The 2007 New York Mets went 88-74, and had a Pythagorean record of 86-76. The team above is really no better than the 2007 team, and unless one is willing to do something drastic -- e.g. Reyes/Gomez/Pelfrey for Johan Santana -- there's really no way to fix that.
However, the 2007 team is, probably, better the sum of its parts; as should the 2008 team be. The question, of course, is simple:
Will(ie) they choke again?
