A Crash Course Highlighting Draft Day Trade Rumors
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by user Tomvanwyhe
Over the past several weeks, and especially the last week, we’ve swallowed more than a mouthful of trade rumors; some legitimate, some seemingly pulled out of thin air. All of them — the eight we deemed most likely, at least — are listed below in a summary format.
Tomorrow, some of them will go down, others won’t. But at least you’ll have this handy guide, giving you the approximate probability — hey, we don’t know that much more than you! — that the trade does go down. Print it out, carry it around, whatever; just have it so you won’t be surprised. Or maybe something will happen that nobody caught wind of.
That is, after all, what makes tomorrow so special; the spontaneity, the drama, and the excitement of watching between 2 (soft core!) and 8 hours (that’s us!) of Mel Kiper Jr. breaking down each pick, each trade, each minute of action during Day 1.
Probability is not an exact science and should not be treated as one. For those who don’t know, 60-40 is the same as 60%.
Order based on likelihood.
San Diego and unnamed team (think Buffalo)
- Other team wants Michael Turner
- San Diego receives first round draft choice of undisclosed team
- Probability: 100-0
Washington and Chicago
- Washington wants disgruntled linebacker Lance Briggs; receives Chicago’s first round pick
- Chicago receives 6th overall draft choice
- Probability: 70-30
Tampa Bay and Detroit
- TB wants 2nd overall pick (for Calvin Johnson; deal is essentially nulified if Oakland drafts Johnson)
- Detroit receives Brian Kelly, 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, and late round pick
- Probability: 60-40
Denver and Carolina
- Denver wants defensive tackle Kris Jenkins
- Carolina receives third round draft choice
- Probability: 60-40
Green Bay and Kansas City
- Green Bay wants running back Larry Johnson
- Kansas City receives early pick (1st or 2nd) and two (perhaps one, assume two) mid-round picks
- Probability: 40-60
Washington and Miami
- Miami wants to move up to 6th overall to draft quarterback Brady Quinn
- Washington receives 9th overall draft choice and combination of mid-round choices
- Probability: 30-70
Atlanta and Detroit
- Atlanta wants number 2 overall pick to draft Calvin Johnson (deal null if Johnson is drafted by Oakland)
- Detroit receives 9th overall pick and combination of early-mid round draft picks.
- Probability: 30-70
Washington and Detroit
- Washington wants 2nd overall pick
- Detroit receives 6th overall pick and combination of mid-late round draft picks
- Probability: 20-80
Green Bay and Oakand
- Green Bay wants Randy Moss
- Oakland receives several draft choices (if it happens on draft day; good chance it will happen after, if at all)
- Probability: 10-90
This article is from The NFL Minute. If you would like to download a handy PDF version (1 page), please visit The NFL Minute download page.
