ALCS Preview-Red Sox vs. Indians
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by MegECass110
It makes sense. The two teams that finished with the best records in the American League are meeting in the Championship Series. Sure, Red Sox-Yankees would have been a sexier matchup and would have provided endless, mindless, unoriginal drivel from the sports media for the next four days. But when you think about it, this is the way it's supposed to happen. The two BEST teams in the AL for the whole season, not the hottest or luckiest or best in the second half, are the last two standing. I'll break down some of the key categories for both teams, and some that may not have anything to do with baseball at all.
STARTING PITCHING
This is the most interesting of the match-ups, I think. Cleveland has the best one-two punch of anyone in baseball. C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona pitched well and ridiculous, respectively, in the Yankees series. Boston has a potential Cy Young winner in Josh Beckett (who also lost 1-0 game to Carmona in the regular season), Dice-K and Curt Schilling, who I have restored faith in. By comparison, Cleveland's other starters didn't look up to par in the Yankees series; Jake Westbrook imploded quickly and Paul Byrd was pitching out of jams all night long. Because they have two guys at the top who can throw a shutout like it's no big deal, I'll give a small edge to Cleveland.
BULLPEN
Cleveland has some solid guys in the middle in Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez. But then, Joe Borowski comes in. Despite leading the AL in saves, he lost 5 games and an ERA of 5.07. I'm sorry, I just can't trust a closer with an ERA higher than Eric Gagne. Boston has Manny Delcarmen, a good lefty in Javier Lopez, and shut-down closer Jonathan Papelbon. I didn't mention Hideki Okajima because I think he's going to be a huge wildcard in this series. His numbers pre- and post-All Star break are astounding. Observe...
| Stat | Pre-All Star Break | Post-All Star Break |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | .83 | 4.56 |
| OBA | .161 | .263 |
| IP | 43.1 | 25.2 |
| Hits | 24 | 26 |
There are more stats, but I'm trying to convince myself he's going to be okay. That's friggin' scary. Still, the closer issue gives the Red Sox an edge. Plus, when you starters can go 7 innings, I think I feel safer with the Red Sox in the lead than with the Indians.
OFFENSE
Cleveland hit more home runs, but Boston stole more bases, scored more runs, hit for a better average and got on base more often. Neither team is terribly week in the raw stats categories. And, in my favorite stat in baseball, average with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, Boston hit .257, Cleveland hit .256, Boston with 244 RBI and Cleveland with 245. Go figure. But with the bases loaded, Boston hit .311, and Cleveland was last in the AL hitting .220. Boston was second in the AL and Cleveland was third in RBIs after the 7th inning. They are pretty evenly matched statistically. But when you look at guys that legitimately scare the shit out of opposing fans when they come to the plate, I count three in Boston (Manny, Papi and Lowell), I count two in Cleveland (Sizemore and Hafner).
DEFENSE
Boston had a fielding percentage of .986 with 81 errors, Cleveland had a fielding percentage of .985 with 92 errors. There's not too many guys with a giant WARNING sign whenever a ball gets hit their way (I have faith in Manny, probably too much). Grady Sizemore and Coco Crisp are two of the most defensively solid centerfielders in all of baseball. Because of Manny and the human injury DJ Drew, I'll take Cleveland by a hair.
Now, the fun part...
NAMES
Cleveland has a Grady Sizemore, a guy nicknamed Pronk, and an Asdrubal Cabrera (who, more likely than not, I will now refer to as AssGerbel). Boston has a Jacoby Ellsbury, Yoooooooooooooooooooooouk, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Coco Crisp. I'll call it even.
SEXINESS
Folks, this is the only place where you'll find a breakdown of how good-looking each ALCS team is. For Cleveland, it's basically Grady Sizemore. For Boston, it's Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, and Jon Lester. With Grady, it's like Kobe on the Lakers. He just positively carries everybody else. With the Sox, it's like the Florida Gators basketball team, one of the best starting fives ever. And with Grady and Ellsbury (if he get in center), we will all be witness to the most beautiful set of opposing outfielders in the history of mankind. But Grady is too much. Edge to Cleveland. I'll stop before I make one of you puke.
CHEMISTRY
Both of these teams look like they're having a ball and play really well together. Manny and Ortiz should go on a comedy tour together, Dice-K fits in well, DJ hasn't done anything bad, and they have the ultimate glue guys in Tek and Lowell. I haven't seen much of the Indians, but I have seen guys get pied in the face multiple times on Sportscenter over the course of the year. There's no AJ Pierzynski or Barrett-Zambrano fights in sight. Even.
BALLPARK AND FANS
I know about how the Jake had all of those consecutive sellouts in the 1990s, and I think these Indians have people excited about baseball in Ohio again, which is good. But I know for a fact there are going to be 36,000 crazy ass sons of bitches screaming at the top of their lungs for three hours in four of the seven games in the series. Home field advantage has more value to the Sox than maybe any other team in baseball.
WHO'S GONNA WIN?
Basically, whoever wins this series is going to be the odds-on favorite to win the whole thing. Despite what the Cardinals did last year, this year the NL teams seem to be just the "hot" teams that played well down the stretch. So, with that, here is my pick.
BOSTON IN 7 GAMES
