2008 Hall of Fame Ballot: First Base
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by Timothy Moreland (Bball3345)
On January 8th, Cooperstown will potentially open its doors to a select few new Hall of Famers. As the writers are receiving their ballots and voting, I will evaluate all of the players on the ballot, by position. This year's first base group includes two players: Don Mattingly and Mark McGwire.
JAWS
First, each player will be evaluated by their JAWS score, which was created by Jay Jaffe at BaseballProspectus.com. The JAWS score uses the WARP (wins above replacement player) stat by adding the player's seven best seasons and their career WARP total, then dividing by two([PEAK + Career]/2).
Mark McGwire
Career: 109.4 Peak: 67.5 JAWS: 88.5
JAWS places McGwire slightly below the average HOF first baseman, overall. His peak was slightly above average, but his career value and JAWS are both below average for Cooperstown. Outside of '98, McGwire had two other WARP seasons of 10+: 1990 and 1992. Had McGwire not missed considerable time in 1993, 1994, and 1997, his career total would likely have been closer to 130.
Don Mattingly
Career: 84.6 Peak: 62.7 JAWS: 73.7
For Mattingly, 1984 - 1986 and arguably 1987 were all Hall-of-Fame seasons. In 1988, at the age of 27, Mattingly began his early decline. By the age of 34, Mattingly was out of baseball. The Yankees' first baseman peaked high and early, but did not have great longevity.
Hall of Fame Scores
Black Ink measures the number of times a player led the league in a category. Gray Ink measures a player's frequency in the top ten. HOF Standards provides a value to a player's career. HOF Monitor measures how likely it is that player will be voted in.
Further explanations can be found here: Baseball Reference explanation
Mark McGwire
Black Ink: 36
Gray Ink: 110
HOF Standards: 42.1
HOF Monitor: 169.5
While never winning an MVP, McGwire led the league in multiple categories, multiple times. Most famously, McGwire held the All-Time Home Run record for three seasons.
Don Mattingly
Black Ink: 23
Gray Ink: 111
HOF Standards: 34.1
HOF Monitor: 133.5
Mattingly won a batting title in 1984 and an MVP the next season. He also led the league in doubles, OPS, RBIs, SLG, and hits, among others, at least once.
Verdict
McGwire: In : The writers punished McGwire by not voting him in last year. He has not failed a steroid test, so it is time to place him where he belongs.
Mattingly: Out : He simply did not last long enough in the bigs to be a Hall-of-Famer.
I am disappointed however that you apparently didn't learn anything while you were gone.
McGwire took steriods. There is sworn testimony of more than one witness to his use. He's guilty. No failed test necessary.
And, 77% of the people who's opinion counts agree with me.
Sorry, he's not getting in.
And steriods aside, he's borderline anyway. It's not just homers that make a player great. He did nothing else well enough to be considered.