2007 National League Preview
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by user Davis21wylie
See also: 2007 American League Preview
Ah, yeah... Can you smell it? The freshly cut grass of the outfield, the dirt of the basepaths -- spring training is just around the corner. And that can only mean one thing: it's time to get back to my roots. Has it been a year on the Armchair already? I can hardly believe it myself! Well, just like last year, I have projected numbers for each of the 2007 season's MLB regulars, running them through the statistical blender to project standings. In fact, this time around I even share the raw numbers that make up the team W-L projections. (Note that these numbers are heavily regressed to the mean, so player and team performances will vary more -- for better or for worse -- in real life than they do in my projections).
Anyway, without further ado, I present my NL picks. Enjoy...
National League
Projected Standings
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves (Projected: 87-75)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 79-83, Finished 3rd in NL Eastern Division Scored 849 runs, Allowed 805 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 85-77 Managed by Bobby Cox Ballpark: Turner Field Attendance: 2,550,524 (9th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 97/Pitching - 98 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 87-75 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 5.09 (2nd) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.71 (5th)
Offense & Fielding: Despite everything that went wrong for Atlanta last season, the Braves' offense was actually very good in 2006, ranking second in runs -- their best showing since 2003's Gary Sheffield-led squad. At the core of the Braves' offensive success was their power hitting: their 222 home runs topped the NL, as did their .455 slugging percentage. Leading the way were usual suspects Andruw and Chipper Jones, but the Braves also got outstanding seasons from 1B Adam LaRoche and SS Edgar Renteria, as well as brilliant young catcher Brian McCann. And while LaRoche was shipped to Pittsburgh this offseason, the Bravos' lineup should continue to be one of the most potent in the entire NL. The Jones Bros. don't look like decline risks at this point (although 2007 might be Andruw's final season in a Braves uniform), and McCann should continue to blossom into maybe the NL's best offensive catcher. Meanwhile, hopefully Jeff Francoeur will (cross your fingers) actually deliver on his talent and be a useful player, rather than the overrated, empty-RBI-collecting out machine he was a year ago. But there are a few question marks in this lineup -- namely, at the positions where Schuerholz cut loose LaRoche and Marcus Giles this winter. While new 2B Kelly Johnson can definitely hit, it remains to be seen if he can field the position after spending the last few years as an OF. If he can't, the Braves offense just got worse, as backup Martin Prado is not a starting-caliber player. Meanwhile, at first, ATL is hoping Scott Thorman will prove up to the task after some solid (if inconsistent) work in the minors last year. If Thorman fails, newcomer Craig Wilson is at least a decent stopgap, but he's far from a long-term solution. Defensively, Atlanta is middle-of-the-pack, dazzling with neither their range nor their glovework -- although Andruw Jones remains one of the premier CF in all of baseball, despite his gains in, um, girth in recent years.
The Last Word: This was an underrated offense last year, and while they'll likely regress a bit with the influx of new starters, keeping up with the Joneses will again be a tough task for most NL teams.
Pitching: For the 2006 Atlanta Braves, the mound was a place where horrible atrocities were committed on almost a nightly basis. This was especially true in the first half of the season, as Braves pitchers allowed 5.04 runs per game, culminating with a 6-21 June in which they allowed 5.15 RPG -- a stretch that ultimately killed their season. Aside from John Smoltz and Chuck James, the rotation was a disappointment, headlined by Tim Hudson's 4.86 ERA, easily the worst of his career (and I thought pitching was supposed to get easier when you move to the NL!). But Atlanta's bullpen was their real Achilles’ heel: Braves relievers posted a 4.39 ERA (the NL average was 4.19) and the 6th-worst WHIP in MLB, blew 29 saves (2nd-worst in MLB), and notched the 3rd-worst save percentage (57%) in baseball. And those numbers were worse before the club acquired Bob Wickman, who saved the best pitching of his career (1.04 ERA) for his stint in Atlanta. Clearly, something had to be done about this bullpen, which was the chief reason Atlanta underperformed their pythagorean expectation by six games a year ago. So John Schuerholz spent all offseason working on his relief corps... and he did a pretty good job, ripping off Seattle for Rafael Soriano, and grabbing Mike Gonzalez from Pittsburgh in the LaRoche deal. With the improved bullpen, the return of Mike Hampton, and a bounce-back hopefully in the cards for Hudson and Kyle Davies, pitching suddenly doesn't look like such a weakness for Atlanta in 2007. While they won't be elite, they could be better than average again -- just like they were in 2005, their last division-winning season.
The Last Word: Schuerholz showed once again why he's the best GM in the game, bolstering this staff and giving the offense a chance to win games for them.
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Despite a sinking payroll and constant personnel turnover, the Braves may have just executed a successful one-year rebuilding cycle. With New York looking more and more like an AARP meeting (and one without a pitching staff, to boot), Philly lacking the requisite arms to contend (once again), and Florida's young core guaranteed to regress to the mean, the good old days may be back in the NL East -- days in which Atlanta captured the division largely by default.
2. New York Mets (Projected: 83-79)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 97-65, Finished 1st in NL Eastern Division Scored 834 runs, Allowed 731 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 91-71 Managed by Willie Randolph Ballpark: Shea Stadium Attendance: 3,379,535 (3rd out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 95/Pitching - 96 (over 100 favors batters) Postseason: Lost NL Championship Series (4-3) to St. Louis Cardinals Won NL Division Series (3-0) over Los Angeles Dodgers 2007 Projected Record: 83-79 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 5.02 (3rd) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.89 (10th)
Offense & Fielding: Once again, this offense is loaded -- and versatile. The third-highest scoring team in the NL a year ago, New York can slug with the best of them, although they also can rely on the blinding speed of Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran to create chances on the basepaths (with an 81% SB rate on a league-leading 181 attempts, they were one of the few teams that actually turned the steal into an effective offensive weapon). From top to bottom, few teams can match the Mets' lineup: Reyes, Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright... even over-the-hill versions of Moises Alou (good acquisition), Jose Valentin (good acquisition), and Shawn Green (not-so-good acquisition, but whatever) are going to contribute to NY's fearsome attack. So Paul Lo Duca is massively, Darin Erstad-style overrated... So what? These Mets hitters can flat-out rake. New York also shines brightly on defense, thanks to Beltran, Valentin, Endy Chavez, and (maybe?) Reyes.
The Last Word: When it comes to putting runs on the board, these Mets are, well, Amazin'...
Pitching: Okay... now is the time for Mets fans to cover their ears in denial, because New York's pitching will prove their downfall in 2007. This rotation was average (4.67 ERA) a year ago, but... Pedro Martinez will be gone until August; staff ace Tom Glavine is 41 (meaning he could collapse at any moment); #2 Orlando Hernandez is-- well, we're not sure how old, but he's at least as ancient as Glavine; #3 Chan Ho Park's ERA will almost certainly climb back to 5.00+ after a 2nd-half swoon last year; #4 John Maine benefitted from an extraordinarily low hit rate on balls in play last year (so expect an ERA well north of 4.00); and while possible #5 Mike Pelfrey has potential, he's too raw, and will likely be supplanted for the job by Oliver "6.38 ERA" Perez. So you can say goodbye to your average rotation, Willie. Oh, but the bullpen, it was the saving grace last year, so it has to be a strength, right? Um... Billy Wagner is still lights-out, but... Duaner Sanchez benefitted from a low BABIP and high strand rate last year, and he's coming off an injury. Aaron Heilman is actually one of their safest bets, but they may be forced to start him, and he's got an awful history as a SP. Chad Bradford took his 2.90 ERA to Baltimore, Pedro Feliciano is dependable but rode an abnormally high strand rate to his 2.09 ERA, and the rest of the bullpen is nondescript. In other words, expect a pretty sizable step backwards for the entire Mets' staff in 2007.
The Last Word: "But they were so good last year!" I know. Last year was good. Just keep thinking about last year...
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: How ironic would it be if, having spent the better part of the past decade attempting to catch Atlanta in this division, the Mets find that as soon they finally do take the East, they've already topped out, and they give up the division again just a year later? It's a cruel world out there, kids -- you can let the 2007 New York Mets be a lasting monument to that fact. The offense is still quite good, but the Doomsday Clock is ticking on this pitching staff... I just hope they enjoyed 2006 while it lasted.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (Projected: 83-79)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 85-77, Finished 2nd in NL Eastern Division Scored 865 runs, Allowed 812 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 86-76 Managed by Charlie Manuel Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park Attendance: 2,701,815 (7th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 103/Pitching - 103 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 83-79 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 5.01 (4th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.87 (9th)
Offense & Fielding: It's another year, and they're playing the same old tune in Philadelphia -- the first line of which is, "The offense can score a lot of runs..." Reigning MVP Ryan Howard (who, surprisingly, is already 27 years old) is the centerpiece, but there's a lot more to like about this lineup than simply the 50+ times Howard will circle the basepaths after a gargantuan moon-shot (yes, he's hitting 50+ again). Second bagger Chase Utley's surname kind of rhymes with "studly", which is convenient because that's exactly what he is, while SS/leadoff man Jimmy Rollins is one of those rare speed freaks who is actually good at the game of baseball, too (99 EqR last season). Meanwhile, Pat Burrell continues to be underrated by the "We Hate Strikeouts (And, Thus, Adam Dunn)" Club, even though he's a damn good ballplayer (career OPS+: 117), and the rest of these guys (Wes Helms, Aaron Rowand, et al) aren't really that bad. In other words, look for another offensive performance that ranks among the National League's elite. Illadelph was not a very good defensive team last year, ranking 23rd in baseball in defensive efficiency, but a full season of Rowand's awesome CF defense will help things a bit.
The Last Word: It's a good first line. Very catchy. I'd go with it.
Pitching: But, alas, that old tune has a second line: "...but the pitching still ain't great, and it'll cost us a chance to pass the Mets when their pitching ain't great, either." You see? Not as catchy. Not really something you could see a guy like, I don't know, Sting singing. I'm not really sure why everyone is so high on Phillies pitching right now, but let's debunk the idea that this staff is playoff-caliber anyway, just for fun. Ace Brett Myers, on top of being a wife-beating goon (and not even a discreet one at that -- seriously, who knocks around the Mrs. in front of eyewitnesses, in broad daylight, on the streets of Beantown?), was inconsistent last year, and isn't a good bet to improve on that 3.91 ERA, 2005 breakout be damned. #2 Cole Hamels is legit, but still very fragile; Adam Eaton is Just Another Mediocre Pitcher at this point; new face Freddy Garcia's K-rate is slip-slidin' away; and Jamie Moyer was born in the middle of the Cuban Missile Crisis (hint: he's old). The bullpen, led by great-but-sore-shouldered closer Flash Gordon, isn't looking much more reliable than the rotation -- behind Gordon and Geoff Geary (who is bound to decline from last year's 2.96 ERA), there are precious few solid arms in the mix. The bottom line is that this staff was well below average last year, and even with the influx of new pitchers, there's little reason to think they'll be significantly better in 2007.
The Last Word: Is this rotation really that much better than last year's opening-day version? You know, the one that put up the 5.08 ERA?
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Make no mistake, Pat Gillick has a quality team on his hands, and when he has made a move, he's generally done his best with what he had to work with. The Bobby Abreu fire sale is of questionable merit, now that the team is suddenly viewing itself (and rightly so) as an NL East contender, but the Thome trade would have worked out if Rowand hadn't gone all Tyler Hansbrough-Gerald Henderson on a fence, and Gillick's unwillingness to tear down predecessor Ed Wade's still-useful foundation must be commended. Still, Philly's pitching is a weakness if you take your rose-colored glasses off; there are simply too many injury/decline/inconsistency risks to expect a major improvement. And, sadly, a "major improvement" from their pitchers is what it will take for the Phils to take the next step and establish dominance in the NL East. This team is good enough that they might win the division by default if NY and/or Atlanta falters, but in a race this wide-open, a better staff could have given them a stranglehold on first place for the near future.
4. Florida Marlins (Projected: 79-83)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 78-84, Finished 4th in NL Eastern Division Scored 758 runs, Allowed 772 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 80-82 Managed by Joe Girardi (2007 Manager: Fredi Gonzalez) Ballpark: Pro Player Stadium Attendance: 1,164,134 (16th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 95/Pitching - 96 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 79-83 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.83 (10th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.95 (12th)
Offense & Fielding: As predicted, the Marlins were actually a pretty decent offensive club last season, finishing 8th in runs per game with 4.68. Practically all of their top kids (ROY Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, Mike Jacobs) had great years at the plate, combining with all-world 3B Miguel Cabrera to form a solid lineup that helped the team win 78 games and stay in the Wild Card race (at least nominally) until early September. With this core intact, it would seem that Florida has a strong foundation upon which to build in 2007... but further examination reveals that a decline is in the cards for this offense. If you've ever heard of the "Sophomore Slump," it would never apply more than to this team, this year. While Florida's prized youngsters should have been expected to play well last year, many of them (especially Uggla and Ramirez) played at a level that was very much out of step with their track records -- meaning that they will likely regress to the mean as opposing pitchers adapt and plain ol' lady luck catches up to them. Not that last year's heroes will be bad or anything; they'll simply be less good, and on a team with this little depth, that could be the difference between a good offensive showing and a mediocre one. In terms of defense, the Marlins are average, but should be less error-prone as the kids grow up.
The Last Word: In general, they'll regress, but Jeremy Hermida has to be better in '07... What's that old saying -- "Tout a player a year too early rather than a year too late"? Eh, never mind.
Pitching: Speaking of players performing over their heads... This is the area where Florida is really going to regress. On top of losing closer Joe Borowski (which will hurt, make no mistake), the Marlins should expect their young hurlers that did so well last year (Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson, Taylor Tankersley) to take a step back in '07 as well, since all of them rode either low BABIP's or high strand rates to impressive ERA's a year ago. And even Dontrelle Willis isn't immune from decline concerns: given his massive workloads over the past two seasons (and his loss of control in the 2nd half of '06), the 25-year-old southpaw could (unfortunately) be a burnout risk. Which would be a shame, because when he's 100%, D-Train is one of the best and most electrifying pitchers in baseball. Anyway, Florida's young rotation -- and their new closer -- are going to go backwards this year, and the rest of the staff is not equipped to take up the slack. Don't expect them to finish 5th in runs allowed again.
The Last Word: If they plan on pitching their way into contention again, they'd better address their bullpen issues, and hope the kids are alright for a second straight season...
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Florida will live or die based on how much of their 2006 momentum can be carried into 2007. If nobody regresses (or the youngsters even improve), new manager Fredi Gonzalez has a possible dark-horse NL East champion on his hands. The more likely scenario, however, is that the young Marlins will have a much tougher go of it the second time around. Look for 4th place this year, although they will definitely be a team to watch over the next five or so years.
5. Washington Nationals (Projected: 72-90)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 71-91, Finished 5th in NL Eastern Division Scored 746 runs, Allowed 872 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 70-92 Managed by Frank Robinson (2007 Manager: Manny Acta) Ballpark: R.F.K. Stadium (ballparks.com) Attendance: 2,153,056 (11th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 97/Pitching - 98 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 72-90 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.52 (16th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.11 (14th)
Offense & Fielding: Those poor Natspos. A year after staging a valiant run at the NL East crown (and posting a .500 record), Washington slumped to 71-91 in 2006, good for a very distant last place finish. But surprisingly (given their RFK-induced power outage in '05), the offense wasn't to blame for the Nats' collapse, as the Alfonso Soriano-led lineup put up a shockingly average 4.6 runs/game despite their cavernous home park. Don't expect a repeat performance, though: without Soriano, Jose Vidro, and Jose Guillen, D.C. projects to have one of, if not the worst offenses in the Senior Circuit. Although the lineup contains legit hitters like Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns, and (perhaps) Ryan Church, Washington's starting nine will also "boast" offensive disasters like Nook Logan, and a guy who's nowhere near as good as Carlos Beltran... Cristian Guzman. And those guys are starting. The bench includes a collection of retreads that everyone else had long since given up on -- George Lombard, Alex Escobar, Rob Fick, Mike Restovich, Tony "Blomack" (thanks, Manny), et cetera, et cetera. So while new manager Manny Acta seems like a really cool guy, he might as well face facts -- no matter how sensible he is, the Nationals are going to have one ugly offense in 2007. Defensively, Washington had good range last year but were horrendously error-prone (that's right, I'm talking about you, Felipe Lopez), a fact that won't really change with Guzman's return. At least Zimmerman and Brian Schneider can field, though.
The Last Word: RFK + That Lineup? Memo to Jim Bowden: You do know the point of this game is to score more runs than the opponent, right?
Pitching: This could be a problem. Last year, Washington's pitching staff was easily the worst in the NL, putting up a dreadful 5.03 ERA -- a showing that looks even more laughable in light of RFK's offense-suppressing environs. Chief among the offenders were the starters, who had the third-worst ERA of any rotation in MLB a year ago: with Actually-Good-Pitcher John Patterson injured much of the year, D.C. turned to the likes of Ramon Ortiz, Tony Armas Jr., and Pedro Astacio for starts -- a scenario nobody should ever find themselves in. As it stands now, the Nats' rotation will at least be ... different in 2007. And maybe better, if Patterson stays healthy and repeats 2005, and if prospects like Shawn Hill, Matt Chico, Garrett Mock, and Collin Balester prove to be ready for The Show. But the team will also rely on a number of worthless stopgaps until the youngsters arrive (assuming they ever do). Bullpen-wise, the Nationals are actually not that bad, with Chad Cordero closing, and Jon Rauch and/or Luis Ayala setting up. But getting a lead for those guys to protect will be a pretty tall order for the rest of this team.
The Last Word: Pending Patterson health, they could possibly be as bad as last year... but it won't be 2005 all over again, either.
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: It's pretty hard to figure out what direction Washington is headed in. The Acta hiring seems like a progressive move, and certainly Stan Kasten is one of the more competent executives in professional sports, but retaining Bowden as GM is a more questionable decision -- for every Zimmerman draft choice and Majewski-for-Kearns / Wilkerson-for-Soriano / Vidro-for-whoever ripoff (the middle one of which should have been a ripoff in the other direction), there are "win-never" contracts like those lavished on Guzman and Schneider, as well as Bowden's generally destructive fetish for Dempster-esque pitchers. Clearly, with their staff in such shambles, that particular penchant can only help Washington at this stage in the game, but the bigger question is whether or not Bowden's overall style is in keeping with Washington's long-term plan (assuming there even is one). More to the point, the Nationals need to ask themselves not just whether or not they are rebuilding (they obviously are), but also how they plan to rebuild -- through the farm system, through trades, etc. While Bowden has done reasonably well on the trade front in the short term, his moves have not significantly improved the team's future outlook, and they have often come at a cost to the farm system, which was already depleted by the franchise's iffy ownership status. It's one thing for a club to be entrenched in last place, but with some sense of direction for the future (hell, even Tampa Bay fits that description); sadly, it feels like Washington's current situation is another thing entirely. Until they clearly establish where they want to go, how can they be expected to do anything but go around in circles?
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (Projected: 86-76)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 83-78, Finished 1st in NL Central Division *World Series Champions* Scored 781 runs, Allowed 762 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 82-79 Managed by Tony LaRussa Ballpark: Busch Stadium III Attendance: 3,407,104 (2nd out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 98/Pitching - 98 (over 100 favors batters) Postseason: Won World Series (4-1) over Detroit Tigers Won NL Championship Series (4-3) over New York Mets Won NL Division Series (3-1) over San Diego Padres 2007 Projected Record: 86-76 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.97 (5th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.68 (3rd)
Offense & Fielding: What an incredibly weird season it was for St. Louis in 2006! Ever the contrarian, I picked them to decline precipitously before the season (which they did) despite fawning from almost every other forecaster, blasting them in particular for standing pat with an aging/overrated lineup... But for all of their injuries and inconsistency a year ago, the Cards still boasted a solid offense, checking in at 6th in the NL in runs per game with 4.85. And their hitters' average age was 29.6, which hardly qualifies them as ancient. Oh, and then there's that whole World Series thing -- who knew? Anyway, suffice to say that I've learned my lesson with bunch... So first things first: any and all discussions of this lineup have to start with Albert Pujols, the best hitter on the planet now that Barry's no longer 'roiding it up. Pujols routinely creates 12+ wins a season for St. Louis with his combination of otherworldly hitting and surprisingly-graceful fielding, not to mention the lineup protection he affords his teammates. In short, Prince Albert is simply amazing. Other highlights of the Cardinal lineup include stalwarts Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds (pending health), as well as the fairly Sophomore Slump-proof Chris Duncan (that rookie year was no fluke -- he owns those skills). Lowlights include the scrappy-but-ineffectual (reigning World Series MVP) David Eckstein, free agent bust-to-be (at the plate, at least) Adam Kennedy, and baseball's ongoing love affair with Juan Encarnacion. But, in sum, the Cards will place among the top five or so offenses in the NL, so no worries as long as Pujols stays healthy. Defensively, St. Louis is outstanding, and the addition of Kennedy means the rich get richer.
The Last Word: The 2007 version will definitely score as much as (if not more than) they did a year ago -- assuming Edmonds suffers no ill effects from post-concussion syndrome.
Pitching: A year after having the best pitching staff in the game, the Cardinals saw their hurlers not named "Chris Carpenter" slip badly in the second half of 2006 because of both injury (Mark Mulder) and a total loss of effectiveness (Jason Marquis). In fact, only a postseason surge by this staff (hello, Jeff Weaver!) saved the season from an untimely end -- and delivered a World Series ring to St. Louis in the process. Over the offseason, GM Walt Jocketty let Weaver, Marquis, and Jeff Suppan go, instead surrounding Carpenter with Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainwright, and... well, somebody else. The good news for Cards fans is that all of the aforementioned pitchers are in line for solid seasons -- now, if only they could settle on a fifth starter. Bullpen-wise, closer Jason Isringhausen returns, but offseason hip surgery could hamper him. Also in relief are postseason star Josh Kinney, newcomer Russ Springer, and LOOGYs Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores. Mulder's status is unknown as of right now; reports say he'll be out until at least July after rotator cuff surgery, and his effectiveness was questionable when he did pitch last season. Luckily, St. Louis ought to be able to do without him for the first half of the year.
The Last Word: Aside from Carpenter and Isringhausen, the Cardinals have no big-name pitchers, but the unsung heroes of this staff should be able to cobble together a decent performance more in keeping with the 2005 Cards than last year's bunch.
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: In many ways, the 2006 Cardinals' championship was one of the biggest flukes in baseball history: after struggling to an 83-78 finish that barely got them into the postseason at all, St. Louis outlasted two teams that were, on paper, pretty obviously better than them, culminating with a favorable (in hindsight, at least) World Series matchup against another Cinderella who just happened to turn into a pumpkin mere hours before the Cardinals themselves likely would have. Quite frankly, they shouldn't have won the World Series last year. And, yet, it also seemed a result perfectly in keeping with Tony La Russa/Walt Jocketty's management of the club this decade; simply put, the Cards are, were, and continue to be one of the NL's better-run ballclubs, and their first title since 1982 was the residue of that superior design. So, looking forward to 2007, the Cardinals are in a strange position. They are not even close to being as random a champion as their predecessors, the 2005 White Sox (or the '06 Tigers for that matter, had Detroit won the Series), as St. Louis is essentially the same team that won 205 games in the two years prior. But they did overachieve in last year's playoffs, and there are plenty of question marks on the 2007 roster. You don't say this often about a defending World Champion, but the Cardinals are at a crossroads. With health and a little luck, they could easily return to the 90+ win range... But, by the same token, the team's core is a year older, and the window for winning with everyone not named "Pujols" is shrinking by the minute. So, while they are still technically the best team in this division, don't be surprised if 2006 was this group's last blaze of glory, rather than the beginning of something big.
2. Chicago Cubs (Projected: 84-78)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 66-96, Finished 6th in NL Central Division Scored 716 runs, Allowed 834 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 70-92 Managed by Dusty Baker (2007 Manager: Lou Piniella) Ballpark: Wrigley Field Attendance: 3,123,215 (5th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 104/Pitching - 103 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 84-78 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.91 (7th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.70 (4th)
Offense & Fielding: Without überstud Derrek Lee for much of the year, what had been a middling offense in 2005 (despite Lee's brilliance) became a downright dismal one in 2006, ranking near the bottom of the NL in practically every meaningful offensive category, including a woeful .319 OBP that was easily the worst in the league. As a result, Dusty Baker was ousted, which couldn't have been better news to Cubs fans, who were weary of his bizarre managerial tendencies, his mindgames with the media, his lack of control over the clubhouse, and his general lame-duckiness over the past two seasons. At least Lou Piniella will bring a little fire to the Cubs -- but will his team be any good? Uh, maybe? Lee should be fully recovered from the wrist problems that robbed him of 2006, and that's bad news for opposing pitchers. 3B Aramis Ramirez is another tremendous (offensive) talent, and he may have been the wisest free-agent investment in what was a crazy winter. Speaking of crazy free-agent acquisitions, the Cubbies also have Alfonso Soriano in the fold -- although it'd be a shame if that contract overshadowed what a good baseball player he actually is. OF Matt Murton and C Michael Barrett are also underrated hitters, although they'll be accompanied in the lineup by regression risk Mark DeRosa and all-around offensive n'er-do-well Cesar Izturis. Jacque Jones once cried about a fantasy projection, but he's really not all that bad a hitter if he stays at last year's levels. Chicago also has a bunch of outfielders (of varying quality) on their bench: Cliff Floyd, Felix Pie, Angel Pagan, etc. One of them could be dealt before long. The Cubbies are a good defensive team, because that's the one area where Izturis excels; Lee is also a tremendous fielder at first base.
The Last Word: With Lee healthy again and Soriano in the mix, there's no way they finish in the NL's bottom half in runs again... right?
Pitching: It seems like I'm always saying this, but the Cubs' pitching shouldn't be that bad this year. Okay, so they were awful last year, checking in with the third-worst ERA of any NL staff... So what? They were forced to start the likes of Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, Glendon Rusch, and Juan Mateo -- so it's gotta be better in 2007, right? Ace Carlos Zambrano is by far the best pitcher named 'Zambrano' in the majors right now, and that has to be worth something (he's also one of the best pitchers period). New face Ted Lilly ain't all that bad, either, and the same could be said of Rich Hill, who definitely impressed as a rookie last year. But, this being the Cubs, there are also a plethora of question marks. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Wade Miller -- do those guys even play baseball anymore, or just collect workman's comp all day? And, seriously, who gives this clown a 3-year, $28 million contract? And -- this has to be a typo, right? -- Ryan Dempster's still their closer? Geez. There's always Bobby Howry, though. Oh, yeah.
The Last Word: Honestly, who knows what to expect from this staff? One thing's for sure, though -- the rotation (2006 ERA: 5.19) couldn't possibly be worse than it was a year ago...
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Fool me once, shame on Dusty; fool me twice... Well, let's just say that those expecting 2003-04 again can continue to hold their collective breath. But things won't be as bad as they were last year, either -- especially if Lee returns to his dominant form of two years ago and Soriano doesn't suffer Beltre-itis. The pitching staff will be the real key to any success by the Northsiders in 2007, though. Having finally abandoned the dream of Prior/Wood anchoring the rotation, Jim Hendry finally has a decent stable of starters (even Marquis had a 3.71 ERA as recently as 2004) and a bullpen that is surprisingly effective (2006 ERA: 4.04, 12th in MLB). Pending health, I'd say the Cubbies have 80-85 win potential, and they might even capture this division if St. Louis falters. I'm not saying that it's likely -- these are the Cubs, after all -- but things are not nearly as dire as they looked during last year's 66-win disaster.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (Projected: 78-84)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 75-87, Finished 4th in NL Central Division Scored 730 runs, Allowed 833 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 71-91 Managed by Ned Yost Ballpark: Miller Park Attendance: 2,335,643 (10th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 100/Pitching - 100 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 78-84 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.65 (14th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.86 (8th)
Offense & Fielding: Despite the general feeling a year ago that Milwaukee was a team on the rise, the Brew Crew were just plain not good in 2006. Their offense was the fourth-worst in the National League, and the worst part about it was that there were no glaring deficiencies to speak of -- aside from injury problems and a serious lack of depth (only 3 non-regulars posted an OPS+ over 100), Milwaukee's hitters simply did a subpar job of getting on base and driving runners in (the two things that just happen to mean everything to an offense). And you can bet they'll be their uninspired selves again in 2007, since GM Doug Melvin made no earth-shaking changes to this lineup over the offseason (unless you count picking up Johnny Estrada as "earth-shaking", in which case this is definitely your kind of team!). Sure, they've got some solid guys: Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall, Geoff Jenkins, and... well, I guess that's about it. Looking at this lineup, you wouldn't think they'd be this bad, but the mediocrity just oozes off the page -- especially on the bench, where the Brady Clarks and Craig Counsells of the world roam free like wildebeest on the plains of the Serengeti. In terms of fielding, the Brewers are okay-ish, having ranked 14th in defensive efficiency last year, but they're far from being a slick-fielding team.
The Last Word: I want to like Milwaukee, I really do, but they're just not that good. Maybe next year?
Pitching: Here's another thing Milwaukee was bad at in 2006. Yes, Ben Sheets was hurt. Yes, they've added Jeff Suppan, the quintessential LAIM (league-average innings muncher), to the rotation. Trouble is, the starters were never the problem: the Brewers bullpen posted what was easily the worst relief ERA (5.00) in the league, blew more saves than all but 3 NL squads, and had the 3rd-worst OPS allowed (.785) of any NL relief corps. Along the way, Derrick Turnbow completely lost it, Jose Capellan regressed after 16 great innings in 2005, and they were eventually forced to turn to a bunch of no-names in middle relief (Geremi Gonzalez, et al). But I do have good news... Francisco Cordero should be a more-than-solid option at closer, and Suppan + a healthy Sheets + Chris Capuano + Dave Bush = a surprisingly good rotation. The bad news? The dregs of the bullpen aren't that much better than they were last year, and, besides, no amount of Jeff Suppan's pitching is going to improve a team that scores only 4.5 runs per game.
The Last Word: They'll be average, which consititutes a major improvement over last year's dreadful showing. But unless the offense improves, it won't be enough to get them into the postseason discussion... even in this division.
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: The Brewers are a young team with some upside, but they lack the true breakout potential necessary to improve by leaps and bounds in 2007. Sure, there are some causes for excitement -- they might sneak into the wild card race at some point in the season, and Fielder is a potential 35 HR guy -- but all in all, Milwaukee is essentially no better than they were in 2005, when they were 81-81. Expect more of the same in 2007.
4. Houston Astros (Projected: 77-85)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 82-80, Finished 2nd in NL Central Division Scored 735 runs, Allowed 719 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 83-79 Managed by Phil Garner Ballpark: Minute Maid Park Attendance: 3,022,763 (6th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 102/Pitching - 101 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 77-85 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.76 (11th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.05 (13th)
Offense & Fielding: The Astros have traditionally had a weak offense in the Purpura era, ranking 11th in runs in 2005 and 12th in 2006. The Astros have also been one of the oldest teams in the NL throughout this century, especially in terms of their hitters. And unfortunately for Astros fans, neither of these facts have changed for the 2007 season... While the middle of the 'Stros' order -- 1B Lance Berkman, new LF Carlos Lee, 3B Morgan Ensberg, and RF Luke Scott -- is as good as any lineup core in the NL (seriously), Houston will still manage to be a below-average offensive team because they give up so much offense at practically every other position. We all know about the woeful hitting provided by A+ defenders Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett, but more troubling is the amount of playing time Houston will award guys that can neither hit nor defend (Craig Biggio, Chris Burke, Mark Loretta, etc.). The bench is Kate Moss-thin as well, still featuring many of the "meh" guys that have inhabited Houston's pine throughout Purpura's reign. There's something to be said for staying the course, but when a franchise displays this much inertia, their resistance to change becomes a clear liability. At least Houston is a very good defensive team, as Ausmus and Everett (who's so much better defensively than Derek Jeter, it's not even funny) definitely earn their keep with the leather.
The Last Word: It's confounding for a team to have so many really good hitters in the heart of the order and still be subpar. Dumping Biggio would be the first step on the road to recovery, but we both know that ain't happening...
Pitching: As was the case last year, this is the big mystery area for Houston. With Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens, and Andy Pettitte in the mix last year, Astros hurlers cruised to the second-best ERA in the NL, basically single-handedly keeping a team with no offense in the postseason race. But while perennial Cy Young candidate Oswalt is still around, Pettitte departed Texas for New York over the offseason, and God only knows where (if?) Clemens will play in 2007. Without two of the game's best pitchers eating up innings, Houston's staff -- heretofore the team's saving grace -- will almost certainly slip to the depths of average, or worse, this season. The team will try to replace the two departed aces with Jason Jennings, who was unthinkably good in Colorado last year but is a good candidate for decline because of a suspicious K-BB ratio and a low BABIP, and Woody Williams, an ancient pitcher who has very little margin for error at this point. The rest of the rotation is very shaky, with Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio tentatively slotted at #4 and #5, but also with Fernando Nieve and Chris Sampson in the hunt. At least Houston's bullpen should be solid once more, as Brad Lidge is a good bet to be his old self again. But, in general, Houston's pitching staff will definitely regress unless Clemens joins the team at midseason once again. And, given the underwhelming state of their offense, a decline in pitching is something that Houston simply cannot afford.
The Last Word: One more year, Roger, we're begging you!
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Going into 2007, Houston is in a tough position. With the memory of 2005's valiant World Series run still firmly in the minds of their fans, the Astros are clearly trying to retain that nucleus for as long as possible, mounting what might be a final run (or two) at a championship before rebuilding. On the surface, this isn't a bad strategy; the Central is certainly ripe for the taking, and the Cardinals proved last year that it doesn't necessarily take a dominating team to win a WS, as long as you get into the playoffs and get hot at the right time. But, just the same, if you're going to make a win-now move like the Lee signing, you should first honestly evaluate the true ability level of your team. As opposed to the Cardinals, an 83-win team who were oft-injured and unlucky during the regular season, the Astros were honestly an 82-win-caliber team a year ago, and their pitching got markedly worse over the offseason. So if you plan to overpay to bring a Carlos Lee in, knowing he'll only really help the franchise during a one- or two-year window of time, make sure first that the window hasn't already been slammed shut. If Clemens comes back, they'll probably do exactly what they did last year -- hang around for a while in a weak division, and maybe even make the playoffs. But if he goes elsewhere, the Astros could easily slip to 75 or fewer wins, and they'd have Lee's fat (pun absolutely intended) contract on their hands. Sometimes, it pays to be honest with yourself.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (Projected: 77-85)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 67-95, Finished 5th in NL Central Division Scored 691 runs, Allowed 797 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 70-92 Managed by Jim Tracy Ballpark: PNC Park (ballparks.com) Attendance: 1,861,549 (15th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 100/Pitching - 100 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 77-85 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.68 (13th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.95 (11th)
Offense & Fielding: Despite legitimately great performances from Jason Bay and Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh finished dead last in the NL in scoring, just .02 runs per game separated from usurping Tampa Bay's status as the worst offense in baseball. The good news is that the Bucs will almost positively be better in 2007, having added slugging 1B Adam LaRoche to a lineup of guys that could continue to improve -- Ronny Paulino, Xavier Nady, and, um... They have the technology to can clone Jason Bay, right? No? Oh. Well, in that case, the Pirates should be pretty bad at scoring runs again, because the original Bay and Sanchez are just about the only quality hitters on the roster. Chris Duffy is a speed freak, but an out machine at the top of the order; SS Jack Wilson is really good -- provided the year is 2004; 2B Jose Castillo is Just Another Futility Infielder... the list goes on. And you don't even want to see the shop of horrors that is their bench. So while this might not be the worst offense in the world (there's always Washington), it's certainly one of them. Oh, and defensively, Pittsburgh is a joke, finishing last in defensive efficiency last year (and by a pretty wide margin).
The Last Word: Jason's brother Michael Bay directed the 2005 movie The Island, which was about cloning, so, really, all it would take to make the Bucs competitive would be a little Hollywood magic...
Pitching: As sorry as Pittsburgh was at putting crooked numbers on the board a year ago, their pitching was actually not all that bad, ranking 8th in the NL in ERA. Thanks to the Fab Four of Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, and Tom Gorzelanny, the Bucs actually have a quality rotation on their hands for the first time since the early 1990's, which has to be a relief for fans accustomed to the likes of Jimmy Anderson and Josh Fogg. But it's not all roses for this staff: while the front of the rotation is extremely promising, they are all very young/inexperienced (at 25, Snell is the elder statesman of the group) -- and we don't need to remind Pirates fans how unreliable young pitchers can be... Meanwhile, the back end of the rotation will feature outright horrible starters like Shawn Chacon and Tony Armas, and the bullpen, a strength last season, looks like it will be less effective with the departure of Mike Gonzalez in the LaRoche trade. So while I think my projection (11th in runs allowed) is a bit pessimistic, I'd give the Duke/Snell/Maholm/Gorzelanny quartet one more year before getting really excited about this staff.
The Last Word: If the Big Four are for real, Pittsburgh will have a formidable staff for years to come. And I hope I haven't jinxed them by saying that...
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Pittsburgh does not have a good offense. They have no bench. They're going to rely heavily on four young pitching phenoms, flying in the face of TINSTAAPP. They traded away their best reliever over the offseason. And yet, they are not far from the being the third-best (or second-best, if the Cubs go through their 2005-06 routine again) team in the Central. In fact, as crazy as it sounds, with a little luck -- something Pittsburgh hasn't had a lot of in recent years, mind you -- the Pirates could actually be in the hunt in this division. Of course, I said that last year, too, and they crashed to 67-95. But still, you gotta like their pitching staff; if they add hitting over the next few years, they could build a contender in the Central. They probably won't contend in 2007, no matter how well the staff performs, but at least now there's a glimmer of hope for the future of Steel City baseball.
6. Cincinnati Reds (Projected: 72-90)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 80-82, Finished 3rd in NL Central Division Scored 749 runs, Allowed 801 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 76-86 Managed by Jerry Narron Ballpark: Great American Ball Park Attendance: 2,134,607 (12th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 108/Pitching - 107 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 77-85 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.63 (15th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.23 (15th)
Offense & Fielding: In 2005, the Cincinnati Reds boasted the top offense in the National League, scoring 5.03 runs per game. They enjoyed a great season by Adam Dunn and a career renaissance by Ken Griffey Jr., and even received solid play from guys like Joe Randa, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, Rich Aurilia, and Sean Casey. And while some of those players departed over the offseason, the general assumption was that if Cincinnati failed in 2006, it certainly wouldn't be because their offense couldn't score... What a difference a year makes. Instead of having the best offense in the league, the Reds had a below-average one, scoring just 4.62 RPG. Along the way, Dunn and Lopez badly regressed, Griffey got injured (again), Kearns was traded at midseason for a pitcher whose injuries only permitted him to toss 15 IP for the club, and the rest of the lineup was generally uninspiring. So which version of the Reds will show up in 2007? Unfortunately for Cincy fans, this year's lineup is looking a lot like last year's -- complete with the same problems that plagued the club throughout the season. While they theoretically employ a power-hitting strategy, none of the Reds' regulars (save for Dunn, Griffey, Edwin Encarnacion, and maybe David Ross) are especially powerful, and we've all heard the main complaint about Cincy's hitters: "they strike out too much!" While this is typically a lazy criticism of any team, maybe there's something to it in the Reds' case... Based on runs created, Cincinnati should have scored 801 runs last year (.336 OBP * .432 SLG * 5515 AB), but they actually were only able to muster 749 -- a difference of 52 runs! One reason for the disparity was their woeful .243 AVG with runners in scoring position, and while part of that is bad luck, part of it also may lie in strikeouts with RISP; Cincy had the fifth-highest RISP K% in baseball, meaning they were not "moving runners over" and "maufacturing runs" with "productive outs" as much as other teams. Since the names and faces have largely gone unchanged since last year, Cincy fans can probably expect more of the same in 2007... Cincinnati is also nothing special in terms of their glovework, although the addition of Alex Gonzalez will improve their defense slightly.
The Last Word: Introducing Team Wind Farm, the only lineup that doubles as an alternative energy source!
Pitching: If the Reds' offense is comprised of a handful of decent guys (Dunn, Griffey, Encarnacion, Ross, Freel, Denorfia) and a bunch of scrubs, their pitching staff consists of exactly two good pitchers amongst a sea of mediocrity -- Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, each of whom were among the most durable and effective starters in all of baseball last season. Behind them is a vast wasteland of pitching question marks: overpaid Eric Milton; burned-out Kyle Lohse; untested kids Homer Bailey, Elizardo Ramirez, Matt Belisle, and Phil Dumatrait... The bullpen isn't looking much better, either: David Weathers is slated to be Cincinnati's closer to start the season, but his trademark lack of control could push any number of others into the role -- Mike Stanton, Bill Bray, Todd Coffey, etc. All in all, the Reds have to hope and pray that their two aces, Arroyo and Harang, stay good and healthy all season long, because without them this is probably the worst staff in the NL. Hell, even with them, it's going to be tough to keep the other team off the board with any kind of consistency. How did they let it get to this point?
The Last Word: Arroyo and Harang and pray for rain! Seriously!
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Hoo, boy, the Reds are a flawed team. From their whiff-happy lineup to their schizoid pitching staff, the Reds have the ability to look good one night and horrible the next -- as evidenced by their wild month-to-month swings in winning percentage last year. If Dunn gets back on track and the team shows any situational hitting ability, the offense could leap back to respectability. But the pitching staff would still be literally a two-man show, meaning their absolute ceiling is the 80 wins they put up last year. In reality, though, they'll probably be quite a bit worse than that -- look for <75 wins, and with few solutions in sight.
NL West
1. San Diego Padres (Projected: 91-71)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 88-74, Finished 1st in NL Western Division Scored 731 runs, Allowed 679 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 86-76 Managed by Bruce Bochy (2007 Manager: Bud Black) Ballpark: Petco Park Attendance: 2,659,757 (8th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 93/Pitching - 94 (over 100 favors batters) Postseason: Lost NL Division Series (3-1) to St. Louis Cardinals 2007 Projected Record: 91-71 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.84 (9th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.23 (1st)
Offense & Fielding: Scoring runs has been the bane of the San Diego Padres' existence during their recent run of success atop the NL West. In 2005, when they captured the division with only 82 wins, San Diego scored 4.22 RPG, good for the fourth-worst offense in the NL; during last year's 88-win campaign, their 4.51 RPG tied them for third-worst in the Senior Circuit. Clearly, the Padres have proven that they can win with a substandard hitting performance... but why should they have to? San Diego's Kevin Towers/Sandy Alderson brain trust must have felt that way this past offseason, because they made a number of moves designed to improve the Padres' punchless lineup. It all started when they acquired Josh Bard from the Red Sox last year as part of their brilliant Doug Mirabelli maneuverings; Bard is now San Diego's starting catcher, and will be an equally productive (but way cheaper) replacement for Mike Piazza. Next up was the trade that sent 2B Josh Barfield, a fast but ultimately mediocre hitter, to Cleveland for 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, an impressive young offensive performer. Finally, the coup d'état: after coveting 2B Marcus Giles all of last season (but being unwilling to part with reliever Scott Linebrink in a trade with Atlanta), San Diego simply waited for the Braves not to offer arbitration to Giles, and promptly snatched him up as Barfield's replacement at second, without losing any players. All in all, it was a tremendous offseason of wheeling and dealing by Towers and co... But was it enough to help this offense? Well, they'll still rank among the bottom half of the league in scoring, but that will represent a major improvement, given the fact that their pitching is still so lights-out. From top to bottom, this is now a reasonably balanced lineup that can cash in on the opportunities provided by Padres pitching. By deftly improving the offense, San Diego just might have solidified itself as the NL's best team. And defensively, the Padres are outstanding, led by CF Mike Cameron and 1B Adrian Gonzalez.
The Last Word: Attention, NL teams: you can no longer walk all over this offense. Yeah, I'd be worried, too...
Pitching: Don't get the impression that the squeaky wheel (the offense) got all the grease this offseason, though. Not satisfied with what was already the best pitching staff in the NL, the Padres went out and grabbed future-Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux, who looked frighteningly like the Maddux of old upon his arrival in Los Angeles last season, to replace aging Woody Williams. With Maddux in tow, San Diego's rotation is now easily the best in baseball, featuring everything from young studs (Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Clay Hensley) to grizzled-but-still-effective vets (Maddux, David Wells). And, led by Trevor Hoffman, the bullpen is similarly stacked, with Linebrink and Cla Meredith being the anchors of middle relief. So, to summarize: runs will be scarce for San Diego opponents in 2007, as this is the scariest staff in the game, aided by a park that is one of the best in baseball for pitchers. Now, if they could only spell "Cla" right...
The Last Word: "Wanted: Totally awesome veteran pitcher (preferably 300-game winner) to pitch with totally awesome staff..."
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Look out, NL, here come the Padres. Payback... this time it's for real! While San Diego has lost to the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, this is clearly not the same Padres team that bowed out so meekly. The new-look Padres will still rely heavily on pitching, but the offense has improved to the point that it can finally carry its fair share of the load. So while the NL West actually looks much better than it did two years ago, the Padres, two-time defending division champs, seem ready for the challenge. Look for 87-92 wins and another division title -- and, this time, maybe even a series win or two.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Projected: 86-76)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 88-74, Finished 2nd in NL Western Division Scored 820 runs, Allowed 751 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 88-74 Managed by Grady Little Ballpark: Dodger Stadium Attendance: 3,758,545 (1st out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 102/Pitching - 102 (over 100 favors batters) Postseason: Lost NL Division Series (3-0) to New York Mets 2007 Projected Record: 86-76 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.92 (6th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.59 (2nd)
Offense & Fielding: With new GM Ned Colletti's acquisitions combining with bounce-back years from the players of former GM Paul DePodesta's regime, the Dodgers went from having a fairly moribund offense in 2005 to having one of the NL's best in 2006. While no Dodgers enjoyed dominant seasons, SS Rafael Furcal led a balanced offense that got good performances out of J.D. Drew, Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, and Kenny Lofton, as well as youngsters Andre Ethier and Russell Martin. Looking forward to 2007, Drew and Lofton are gone, having been replaced by Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre, respectively, but the rest of last year's core is basically intact -- meaning L.A. should once again boast one of the best and most balanced attacks in the league. Yes, Pierre is badly overrated and overpaid, but the rest of the Dodgers' lineup is strong -- and deep, too. Coming off the bench, Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Andy LaRoche combine with Martin and Ethier to give Los Angeles maybe the best group of young prospects in baseball. So while there are no superstars in L.A.'s lineup, their relentless depth more than makes up for it. On defense, the Dodgers are adequate, but not great; Furcal, Kent, and Martin were the best defensive players on the team a year ago.
The Last Word: At first glance, they don't seem so tough, but they're extremely balanced and deep. And when the kids come of age, watch out!
Pitching: Thanks in part to a gift from their upstate rivals, Los Angeles also has a very good pitching staff on their hands this year. When the Giants decided that they'd rather massively overpay Barry Zito than retain Jason Schmidt (a better pitcher anyway), L.A. jumped at the opportunity to ink the right-hander to a 3-year, $47 million deal that could prove to be one of the biggest bargains of the 2006-07 offseason. Joining Schmidt in what is a solid rotation will be the extreme-groundballing Derek Lowe (owner of a 3.63 ERA last year), Brad Penny (a good candidate to bounce back from last season's 4.33 ERA), veteran Randy Wolf (who should be better after fully recovering from Tommy John surgery), and promising youngster Chad Billingsley. In the bullpen, the Dodgers may have lost Eric Gagne, but they return more than a few quality arms, including closer Takashi Saito and setup man Jonathan Broxton. The middle relief situation is a bit shakier, but they should face less pressure this season behind healthy starters.
The Last Word: Don't look now, but this is one of the best staffs in the entire NL, thanks to a deep rotation. Still, it'd be nice to have effective relievers other than Saito and Broxton...
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: L.A. has not emerged victorious in a playoff series since they won the 1988 World Series -- a trend that continued with last season's Division Series sweep by the Mets -- but they certainly have the tools to snap that streak in 2007. Adding Schmidt only bolstered what was already a good staff, and the offense should score more than enough to give them a shot at this division. The Padres may have improved over the offseason, but so did the Dodgers; whatever happens, it should be a lot of fun to watch these two clubs duel for supremacy out west.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (Projected: 82-80)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 76-86, Finished 4th in NL Western Division Scored 773 runs, Allowed 788 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 80-82 Managed by Bob Melvin Ballpark: Bank One Ballpark Attendance: 2,091,685 (14th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 107/Pitching - 106 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 82-80 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.90 (8th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.80 (7th)
Offense & Fielding: Fielding a lineup that mixed the very old (Craig Counsell, Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green) and the very young (Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, Stephen Drew, Carlos Quentin), the D-Backs were able to cobble together an average offense last season despite little in the way of payroll flexibility. But since dealing Green to New York in August, there has been a serious youth movement afoot in the desert -- over the offseason, 'Zona waved goodbye to aging franchise stalwarts like Gonzalez and Counsell, making room instead for talented prospects like Quentin, Drew, and Chris Young. And while the moves may not pay dividends immediately (the offense will still hover around average this year), the D-Backs look to have set themselves up for a future run, with the cornerstones being the youngsters in the 2007 lineup. Mark my words: in a few years, this group will a force to be reckoned with. For 2007, at least, they'll have a balanced attack with few truly great performances but plenty of solid efforts. The Diamondbacks are also a middle-of-the-road defensive team, with Orlando Hudson being their best performer afield.
The Last Word: Flip by in 2007. Tune in in 2009.
Pitching: Similar to their offense of a year ago, the Diamondbacks' pitching should turn in an average effort on the strength of both the young (Mr. Cy Young Brandon Webb, Enrique Gonzalez, closer Jose Valverde) and the old (Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Doug Davis). Neither their rotation nor their bullpen will be especially outstanding, but there are very few legitimately poor performers in the mix, either. These starters can eat innings with the best of them (especially Webb, whose 235 IP in 2006 ranked second only to Aaron Harang amongst NL hurlers), and there are plenty of league-average relievers to pick up the slack when the starters leave the game. Aside from Webb, it may not be the most exciting staff around (The Unit is but a shadow of his former self at this point), but they should get the job done reasonably well. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm running out of euphemisms to relate just how vanilla-average this staff is...
The Last Word: Most of these guys won't be around for the next great Diamondbacks team, but, then again, only one (Johnson) was on the last great Diamondbacks team. So while this staff may be a work in progress, they'll at least keep the team afloat in 2007.
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Arizona is one of those teams that could go either way. They went 76-86 in 2006, but deserved a record closer to 80-82, based on runs scored and allowed. If their talented young hitters speed up their timetable, this could be a dark-horse team in the NL West, capable of capturing the division if San Diego and Los Angeles falter. But, frankly, that's probably an unrealistic goal. In 2007, the focus should be on the further development of players like Young and Drew, with the future in mind. A reasonable projection for Arizona, then, would be a .500 record -- in the process, positioning themselves for a run at the division in 2008 or 2009. In other words, patience will be the key for the Diamondbacks in 2007.
4. San Francisco Giants (Projected: 81-81)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 76-85, Finished 3rd in NL Western Division Scored 746 runs, Allowed 790 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 76-85 Managed by Felipe Alou (2007 Manager: Bruce Bochy) Ballpark: AT&T Park Attendance: 3,130,313 (4th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 100/Pitching - 100 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 81-81 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.72 (12th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.74 (6th)
Offense & Fielding: Now playing in theaters: Brian Sabean and the Quest for the World's Oldest Baseball Team! Watch him track down the guys at this site! Thrill as he tries to lure Willie McCovey out retirement! Chill as he exhumes Ty Cobb's corpse! ... In 2006, the average Giant batter was 33.5 years old, making last year's San Francisco squad literally the oldest team in MLB history (on offense, at least). Over the offseason, SF lost Moises Alou (age 39) and Shea Hillenbrand (30); they added Dave Roberts (35 in 2007), Rich Aurilia (also 35), Bengie Molina (32), and Ryan Klesko (36). It is probable, then, that the 2007 Giants will break the 2006 iteration's record as the oldest team of hitters ever assembled. And for what? This was a below-average offense last year. The only hitters of any consequence on the 2007 version are Barry Bonds (age 42), Ray Durham (35), Randy Winn (a sprightly 33), and Klesko. They have very few legitimate position-player prospects, because they constantly squander compensatory draft picks on aging free agent acquisitions. Bottom line is, they've got a generally mediocre group of hitters, all of whom are very much on the wrong side of 30 -- and they're relying extra-heavily on a 42-year-old with no knees, whose best years this century may or may not have been aided by performance-enhancing drugs. This is not going to end well... But, you know, for a bunch of AARP members, the Giants actually aren't a bad defensive team, mainly because of Omar Vizquel, Pedro Feliz, Molina, and Winn.
The Last Word: Sooner or later, everybody involved with this team is going to be put out to pasture. And I do mean everybody -- even you're not immune, Sabes! Nobody gets away with constructing a roster this old!
Pitching: At least the Giants' pitching staff doesn't need walkers to get out to the mound, which automatically makes them the strength of this team. While the Barry Zito contract was certifiably insane, the dude can pitch (he's super durable, too), and he'll be the ace of a rotation that, you know, isn't really that bad... Matt Cain has stud potential, Matt Morris used to be a pretty good pitcher in his own right (now he's just a LAIM, but that's okay too), and Noah Lowry is pretty solid when healthy. Oh, and then there's Russ Ortiz, one of the worst pitchers to walk the face of the earth. Nobody's perfect! The bullpen is also a problem area, mainly because Armando Benitez's knees are shot, and nobody is really ready to take over closer if (when?) the Dominican flamethrower's injuries shut him down. But at least SF has some promising young pitchers in their system: Tim Lincecum looks like a future all-star, and Brian Wilson ("I wish they all could be California League hitters") might be the team's closer of the future. For now, though, it looks like the Giants will rely on their horses in the rotation, cobble together a bullpen, and thank god there are at least some people on this roster who aren't withdrawing Social Security.
The Last Word: Don't be surprised if the wave of the future -- a Zito-Cain-Morris-Lowry-Lincecum rotation -- arrives at midseason. But also don't surprised if they're wasted on a team with no offense, no closer, and little in the way of a reliable bullpen...
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: The worst part about San Francisco's current situation is that they aren't even that horrible of a team -- they just aren't that good, either. It's like they're in baseball's version of purgatory, forever doomed to win between 75 and 80 games, as punishment for harvesting the souls of the baseball dead (players over 35)... At any rate, the hitting will be bad, the pitching will be okay-ish (especially the starters), they might finish .500 (but they'll probably be closer to last year's 76-85), Bonds will hit #756, and maybe he'll retire after the season so we can all move on with our lives. For a team so clearly going nowhere, any direction -- even a rebuilding plan that takes them backwards at first -- would be a welcome change. If you're San Francisco, the end of the Barry Bonds/Brian Sabean era couldn't come soon enough.
5. Colorado Rockies (Projected: 80-82)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 76-86, Finished 4th in NL Western Division Scored 813 runs, Allowed 812 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 81-81 Managed by Clint Hurdle Ballpark: Coors Field Attendance: 2,104,362 (13th out of 16) Park Factor: Batting - 107/Pitching - 107 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 80-82 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 5.21 (1st) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.29 (16th)
Offense & Fielding: Remember when playing in Coors practically guaranteed Colorado the best offense in the NL? Whether it was the humidor at work or just Clint Hurdle's crazy penchant for bunting, the Rockies themselves are clearly not as subject to the whims of the thin Rocky Mountain air as they were in, say, 1996. While they were still the 5th-best offense in the league, it seemed almost a shame to waste a season in which the pitching was actually not among the NL's very worst by not finishing first in runs. But that's all old news at this point; the 2007 Rockies look like they're ready to bring an offensive renaissance to the place that practically invented the (post-strike) offensive renaissance. For starters, Clint Barmes isn't one anymore, and that's reason enough for Colorado fans to celebrate. Barmes was 21 runs worse than a replacement player last year, and that was when he was swinging away; Barmes also laid down 19 bunts (second-most in the league) a year ago, because, hey, nothing says "bunt" like thin mountain air that allows balls to carry great distances. Also mercifully out of the mix are a number of the other prime offenders from 2006: Danny Ardoin, Choo Freeman, JD Closser, Cory Sullivan, etc. -- all of whom have either departed the team entirely, or seen their roles significantly reduced for the coming season. In their place will be people who acually know what to do with Coors' environs, humidor or not. Joining the existing core of Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, and Brad Hawpe will be future star SS Troy Tulowitzki, as well as full seasons of C Chris Iannetta and (maybe) Kaz Matsui, who really started raking (7.96 RC/27) upon arriving in Denver last year. So while swift-but-punchless CF Willy Taveras will serve as Hurdle's personal out-killing paean to Juan Pierre at the top of the lineup, you can expect the rest of this group to put the Dante Bichette back in Coors. Defensively, the Rockies will once again not be very good, although Taveras is a tremendous defender in center field.
The Last Word: Expect this offense to take a bite out of opposing pitchers again, as opposed to meekly bunting guys over. Bunting at Coors? That's downright un-American! In fact, I think it's outlawed by the Constitution...
Pitching: Speaking of offensive renaissances, I have a feeling that Rockies opponents are about to experience one of their own... Without Jason Jennings, last year's staff anchor, the rotation is in the hands of some pretty questionable hurlers: Jeff Francis, whose falling strikeout rate means he'll probably never be the star people thought he would be back in 2004; Aaron Cook, whose impressive bounce-back from injury obscured his own Saarloos-like K-rate; Brian Lawrence and Rodrigo Lopez, a couple of burned-out ex-prospects whose careers ceased to be sources of optimism years ago; and Byung-Hyun Kim, a guy who should have never even been made aware of Coors Field's existence, much less be acquired by the Rockies. Also, Taylor Buchholz and Josh Fogg could be in the running for a starting job -- and that fact alone means Colorado's rotation is in dire straits. The bullpen is equally shaky, as Brian Fuentes is morphing into a flyball pitcher while playing for the last team on earth that needs flyball pitchers, LaTroy Hawkins is rapidly losing his stuff, and Denny Bautista & Jeremy Affeldt are disasters waiting to happen. Jason Hirsh looks solid enough, though, so I guess that's something...
The Last Word: It's about to get ugly for the Rockies, but it should be fun for any scientists looking to perform field research on the viability of the thigh-high batting practice fastball as a planetary escape vehicle... (Mad props to Baseball Prospectus for that one, by the way)
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: With an improved offense, the Rockies might be better in 2007 despite the impending collapse of their pitching staff. Or, it could be that they were morally an 81-81 team last year, and that Coors will simply start acting like itself again after a half-year aberration in which it was playing like a neutral park. Either way, they'll finish at or near the cellar of what is quickly becoming a competitive division again. Sure, they might overtake the Giants for fourth, but who brags about beating a bunch of old guys anyway?
