2007 BBall's NL East Preview
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
Atlanta Braves
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 John Smoltz: Ace. ERA in the mid-3.00s. Still can blow hitters away. 2 Tim Hudson: Often hittable. ERA will stay above 4.00 again this season. 3 Chuck James: Extreme flyball pitcher. Good young potential #2-3 starter. Limited upside. 4 Mike Hampton: Collapse is a certain possibility. Can still eat innings. 5 Kyle Davies: Can only improve on last season's 8.00+ ERA. Will give the Braves a mid-5.00 ERA from the #5 slot. CL Bob Wickman: 3rd or 4th best reliever on the team. Dominated in brief stint in Atlanta last season. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Brian McCann: Best hitting catcher in the NL. A .300 hitter with 30-homer potential. Ginormous upside. 1B Scott Thorman: Could easily hit 20 homers. Won't get on base often enough to replace LaRoche. 2B Kelly Johnson: Converted outfielder. Bat could make him a star at second base. 3B Chipper Jones: Still best offensive player on the team. Can't stay healthy. SS Edgar Renteria: Bad in the field. Offense will fall after last season's jump. Look for 10 HRs and a .280 average. LF Ryan Langerhans: Gets on base effectively. Not a lot of power for a corner position. Most likely to lose his starting spot. CF Andruw Jones: Defense has fallen dramatically. Good for 40 homers. RF Jeff Francoeur: Hits long home runs. That is about all he does. Still most likely to breakout. -------------------------
Conclusion: The fielding of this squad will be suspect. Who knows how Johnson will adapt defensively to the shift from outfield to second base. Chipper is one of the worst fielders in the league and Andruw has gotten slower as his body has filled out. Jones, Jones, and McCann makes for a solid middle-of-the-order. Francouer should be atleast an average hitter. There are no weaknesses in the starting lineup and the Braves have two good bats off the bench (Craig Wilson and Matt Diaz). The pitching staff is led by a 40-year-old ace. The other starters have little upside. Mike Hampton could possibly hold up the back of the rotation, but after the first three starters, Atlanta has serious issues. After a dissapointing season from their bullpen in 2006, Atlanta beefed up with two closer-worthy relievers in Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Along with Oscar Villareal and closer Bob Wickman, the bullpen won't dissapoint this season.
Projection: 82-80 3rd in the NL East
Florida Marlins
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Dontrelle Willis: Last season's rise in ERA will be a continuing trend. Look for him to stay around 4.00. 2 Scott Olsen: Best stuff on this staff. Can blow hitters away. 3 Josh Johnson: Outstanding 2006 season. Will see a substantial decline, but still be a good top-of-the-rotation starter. 4 Anibal Sanchez: Average starter. Could pitch like a #2-#3 starter. 5 Ricky Nolasco: Effective innings-eater at the back end. Decent control. Doesn't scare hitters. CL Taylor Tankersley: Control issues. ERA will rise. Racks up Ks. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Miguel Olivo: Has never had an OBP above .290 and don't expect him to get over the .300 hump this season. 1B Mike Jacobs: Slugger. Slow. Liability with the glove. 2B Dan Uggla: Best glove on the team. Powerful bat for 2B. Must not let his OBP drop. 3B Miguel Cabrera: Will be an MVP candidate...for a long time. His home run power will jump back into the 30's. SS Hanley Ramirez: All-Star level SS. All-around solid player. Huge baserunning threat. Super potential. LF Josh Willingham: Bat could make him a star. Bat would be more helpful at catcher. Can't play defense. CF Alfredo Amezaga: Worthless player as a starter. Zero power. Speed his only asset. RF Jeremy Hermida: Lots of potential. Good breakout candidate. Power/speed combo. -------------------------
Conclusion: The Marlins have a below average defense outside of Uggla. The entire infield and the corner outfielders make up a tremendous top half of the batting order. Unfortunately, Olivo and Amezega are drastic holes at the bottom of the order. Aaron Boone, Joe Borchard, and Cody Ross make for a potentially capable, but not exceptionally strong, bench. Willis is the "old man" of the rotation at 25-years-old. The rotation is strong from top to bottom, but lacks a true ace. Willis needs to revert back to his 2005 form and/or some of the other youngsters need to break out for the Marlins to compete for the Wild Card. Kevin Gregg is a good reliever and Sergio Mitre will be a valuable arm in the bullpen, if he's not starting. Tankersley will hold on to the closer's job long enough to get 30 saves, but he won't dominate.
Projection: 78-84 4th in the NL East
New York Mets
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Tom Glavine: Not an ace anymore. Expect an ERA right around 4.00. 2 Orlando Hernandez: Still brings the heat. Extreme flyball pitcher. 3 John Maine: Average. Needs to keep his ERA under 4.00 for this team, but probably won't. 4 Oliver Perez: Still waiting for him to return to the "future ace" he looked like. Nothing but a borderline major leaguer. 5 Chan Ho Park: Good control last season. Does not have good stuff. WHIP will be over 1.40. CL Billy Wagner: Still one of, if not the, best. Career ERA of 2.38 is sick. Expect an ERA around that. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Paul Lo Duca: Worst hitter in the lineup. Little power/ low OBP. 1B Carlos Delgado: A star with the bat. Not real smooth in the field. 2B Jose Valentin: Age will limit his playing time. Holds his own in the field. Average bat. 3B David Wright: MVP candidate. Expect 30 homers/ 20 stolen bases. Strong defense. SS Jose Reyes: Blinding speed. Put it all together last season. Production will plateau this season. LF Moises Alou: Will be able to hit until he dies. Has never been able to field. CF Carlos Beltran: See David Wright. RF Shawn Green: Milledge can do anything Green can do... just better. -------------------------
Conclusion: Milledge should be in the starting lineup. LoDuca still does not deserve to bat second in the order. Beltran, Delgado, and Wright make for a stellar middle of the lineup. There are no glaring weaknesses in the starting lineup. The bench won't make a meaningful contribution. Pelfrey should be starting over Chan Ho Park. The rotation does not have an ace with Pedro hurt. It has three #3 starters, a #4 and a #5 starter in Park. The bullpen features a dominant closer, a durable, valuable reliever in Aaron Heilman, and a few good arms with Pedro Feliciano, Ambiorix Burgos, and Duaner Sanchez.
Projection: 88-74 2nd in the NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Brett Myers: Expect ERA in the high 3.00s. Decent control. Can dominate hitters. 2 Cole Hamels: Big upside. Best stuff in the rotation. ERA will be in the mid-3.00s. Dominant. 3 Adam Eaton: Good control. Not enough strikeouts. Home run ball stings him. Will have an ERA just under 5.00. 4 Freddy Garcia: Expet a low 4.00s ERA. Best control on the staff(minus Lieber). 5 Jamie Moyer: Eventually will be too old. Trouble keeping the ball in the park. Hittable. Anticipate a 5.00+ ERA. CL Tom Gordon: Solid closer. Has all the skills to be a closer. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Rod Barajas: Catcher is the only position where his bat has any value. Solid defense. Should hit 15-20 HRs w/ a .250 AVG. 1B Ryan Howard: MVP candidate. Will challenge 60 homers yet again. 2B Chase Utley: Anytime a guy could hit 40 homers at 2B and not have it be a surprise, you have found a special player. 3B Wes Helms: Will hit 20 HRs w/ a starting spot. Can contribute w/ the bat. If he slumps, he will be replaced quickly. SS Jimmy Rollins: Uses stellar speed to stretch hits into extra bases. Defense is vastly improved from younger days. LF Pat Burrell: It is a shame Phillies fans don't appreciate his offense. High OBP with 30+ HRs. CF Aaron Rowand: Overrated glove. Average bat. Stay away from walls! RF Shane Victorino: Deserves a Gold Glove. Fast player with average power. Should switch positions w/ Rowand. -------------------------
Conclusion: The Phillies have good defense at SS, CF, and RF. The rest of the defense is relatively weak. Jayson Werth is the only good bat off of the bench, but he is a starter-quality player. The batting order is solid from top to bottom. Utley, Howard, and the unloved Burrell are one of the nastiest 3/4/5 combos any pitcher will have to face. The rotation can be described as a flyball staff, which does not help their chances in this ballpark. Lieber will end up stealing a rotation spot from Jamie Moyer or he will be traded. Pitching has been a weakness for Philly in the past, but a breakout from Hamels and a bounceback year for Eaton could put an end to that. Gordon, Ryan Madson, and Geoff Geary will be a strong three-headed monster in the bullpen.
Projection: 93-69 1st in the NL East
Washington Nationals
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 John Patterson: Extreme flyball pitcher. Will get hurt. Potential to be an ace when healthy. 2 Mike O'Connor: A success for him is an ERA under 5.00. 3 Shawn Hill: Hittable. Good control. 4 Jerome Williams: Only 25-years-old. Strikeout rate in the threes means he won't scare anyone. Infinite problems. 5 Matthew Chico: Get ready to watch the ball fly out of the park. CL Chad Cordero: Solid closer. Strong walk rate. Above-average dominance. HR ball a minor issue. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Brian Schneider: Defense his only asset. 1B Nick Johnson: Solid with the glove. On-base machine. Good power. 2B Felipe Lopez: Poor glovework. Alright power for 2B. 3B Ryan Zimmerman: Huge doubles power. Superstar potential. Tremendous defense. SS Christian Guzman: Why is this man still in a starting lineup, let alone the majors? LF Ryan Church: Above-average bat. CF Nook Logan: Speedy player. Struggles getting on base to use speed. RF Austin Kearns: Will take his game to the next level. Good defender. -------------------------
Conclusion: Guzman and Logan probably do not deserve a spot in the majors. Snelling should be starting, but he will help bolster the bench. This team will build around Zimmerman for the future and there is not much else promising on the roster. The rotation is comprised of an oft-injured #1 starter and a group of #5 starters. Imagine how bad things will get if Patterson goes down, and he will. The bullpen features a dominant closer/set-up combo with Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch. After the rotation is finalized, some of the arms that don't make it will help improve an already deep bullpen.
Projection: 62-100 5th in the NL East
"He is a pateint hitter who is not afraid to get 2 strikes on him. That gives Jose reyes the opportunity to look for pitches to steal on"
In 2006, of the 146 MLB players who qualified for the batting title, the number of Pitches/Plate Appearance ranged from 3.1 (Jay Payton) to 4.4 (Kevin Youkilis). The average was 3.8 P/PA. Lo Duca ranked tied for 120th out of the 146 players at 3.5 P/PA, 0.3 below average. It doesn't appear that Lo Duca gives Reyes a whole lot of opportunity to steal. But that is just me and my silly spreadsheet talking. Tell me I'm wrong.