2007 BBall's NL Central Preview
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
Chicago Cubs
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Carlos Zambrano: Has been an ace since he was 22-years-old. Completely dominant. Cy Young contender. 2 Ted Lilly: Good for a low-4.00s ERA. Slight drop in his walk rate would bump his ERA below 4.00. 3 Rich Hill: Can dominate batters. Control will determine which side of 4.00 his ERA ends up on. 4 Jason Marquis: ERA will bounce back to mid-4.00s. Has become too hittable. 5 Mark Prior: Is never going to be an ace or healthy again. Look for an ERA in the 4.00s and 120 IP at most. CL: Ryan Dempster: Good, not great, closer. High WHIP. Solid K rate. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Michael Barrett: May be the worst defensive catcher in the MLB. Will hit 16 HRs for 4th straight season. 1B Derrek Lee: Expect pre-2005 numbers. Gold-Glover. Will pass 30 HRs if healthy. 2B Mark DeRosa: Good glove at 2B. Average bat. Most valuable use is at 2B. 3B Aramis Ramirez: Defense is abominable. Will finally pass the 40 HR mark this season. A .300 hitter. SS Cesar Izturis: Zero home runs would not be a surprise. Average glove. Replaceable bat. LF Matt Murton: Above average. Potential star. Should hit 20 HRs with a .310+ average. CF Alfonso Soriano: Handled shift to leftfield remarkably well. Will hit 50 home runs. RF Jacque Jones: Low OBP. Value in his power. Average glove. -------------------------
Conclusion: Overall, the Cubs bring a solid lineup to Spring Training. Soriano's power may be better served in the middle of the order, but that is really a moot point. Murton deserves to play everyday, but Floyd should effectively spell him every so often. Derrek Lee will return to form this year, now that his injury is fully healed. Aramis Ramirez will hurt the team on defense as always, but his bat is the most valuable one in that lineup. Jones, DeRosa, and Itzuris are minor holes in the batting order, but they all have at least some value on defense. Daryle Ward is a good bat to have off the bench. The rotation features a Cy Young candidate in Zambrano. Lilly and Hill are both acceptable as #2-#3 starters. Marquis has lost any value he ever had. The Cubs should get adequate production between Prior and Sean Marshall from the #5 slot. Dempster is not a marquee closer, but the rest of the bullpen is solid with Wood, Eyre, Cotts, Howry, and Wuertz.
Projection: 88-74 2nd in NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Bronson Arroyo: Production will dropoff some. ERA will increase by a run. Tremendous control. 2 Aaron Harang: Another high-3.00s ERA season. Pinpoint control. Strong K rate. 3 Eric Milton: Unable to keep the ball in the park. 5.00+ ERA. Decent control. 4 Kyle Lohse: Average control. Needs to raise his K rate a litle to get ERA under 5.00. His upside would be a repeat of 2005. 5 Elizardo Ramirez: ERA will not drop below 4.50. Struggles w/ home run ball. Fabulous control. Hittable. CL David Weathers: Collapse imminent. Not closer-worthy stuff. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Dave Ross: Don't expect similar power outburst. Last year was as good as it gets for Ross. 1B Scott Hatteberg: Liability in the field. Lack of power diminishes the value from his high OBP. 2B Brandon Phillips: Remembered for his hot streak last season, but was merely average. Terrible glove. 3B Edwin Encarnacion: Shot at 30 HRs. Mediocore OBP. Iffy glove. Relatively high upside. SS Alex Gonzalez: Below average fielding. Expect 15 HRs with a disgustingly low OBP. LF Adam Dunn: Big breakout candidate. Will approach 50 HRs w/ a .400+ OBP. MVP candidate. CF Ken Griffey Jr.: Completely lost his range in center. Still has exceptional power. Few reasons to be a starter. RF Ryan Freel: Should be in center. Blazing speed. High OBP. Single-digit HR power. -------------------------
Conclusion: The lineup revolves around Adam Dunn. Freel is the ideal leadoff man, with a high OBP and ability to steal bases. Phillips, Griffey, and Encarnacion are all average, or slightly above, for their positions. Bottom of the order with Hatteberg, Ross, and Gonzalez won't keep pitchers up at night, but they will hold their own. Team needs Chris Denorfia and Jeff Keppinger on the roster for any depth. The Reds' rotation has awesome control. Harang and Arroyo form a strong 1/2 punch. Unfortunately, the rest of the rotation is made up of #5 starters. The Reds need Homer Bailey, quick. Weathers really shouldn't be closing for anyone. Todd Coffey and Bill Bray are strong relievers, as well as Gary Majewski to an extent.
Prediction: 71-91 6th in the NL Central
Houston Astros
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Roy Oswalt: Ace. Needs to curb his falling K rate or his ERA may jump. Stupendous control. 2 Jason Jennings: K rate too low and BB rate too high. Keeps the ball in the park. 4.00+ ERA. 3 Woody Williams: ERA will balloon now that he has left the friendly confines of San Diego. Hittable. 4 Wandy Rodriguez: Unable to get batters out at the major league level. 5 Ezequiel Astacio: Also not able to get major leaguers out. Sky-high HR rate. CL Brad Lidge: Pitched better than 5.28 ERA suggests. Still dominant. Expect full rebound. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Brad Ausmus: 40-years-old is getting close. Could have a sub-.300 OBP. Yikes!. Expect a decline in defense this season. 1B Lance Berkman: 35 HRs a given. .420+ OBP this year. Average glove. One of the top players in the NL. 2B Craig Biggio: Still good enough to shoot for average production. On the wrong side of 40. Horrible defense. 3B Morgan Ensberg: Still has huge potential in his bat. Don't expect it to show this season. Will hit 25 HRs w/ a .370 OBP. SS Adam Everett: Standout glove. Will manage 10 HRs. Miniscule OBP kills value. LF Carlos Lee: Same as always: a star who is mistaken for a superstar thanks to his high RBI totals. Ugly in the field. CF Chris Burke: Average all around. Good speed. Expect more of the same. RF Luke Scott: 30 HRs would not be a surprise. Star potential. Flashed his potential in 2006. -------------------------
Conclusion: Berkman gives the Astros one of the most valuable guys in the league. Him and Carlos Lee form a scary 3/4 combo in the heart of the order. Ausmus is just terrible. Humberto Quintero is nothing to brag about but even he would be an upgrade over Ausmus. Loretta should do a nice job of spelling Biggio while he chases 3,000. Mike Lamb and Jason Lane make a deep bench for Houston. Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt has turned into Oswalt, Jennings, Williams...ouch. This rotation outside of Oswalt and Jennings could be effectively replaced by a AAA squad. The bullpen is strong. A bounceback season from Lidge and normal work from Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, and Trever Miller will take pressure off the rotation.
Projection:81-81 3rd in the NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Ben Sheets: Won't throw 200 innings, but will have a sub-3.00 ERA. Cy Young candidate. 2 Chris Capuano: A 4.00 ERA is likely. Very good control. Worthy of a #2 spot in almost any rotation. 3 Dave Bush: Pinpoint control. Expect an ERA above 4.00, unless he can keep his strikeout rate up. 4 Jeff Suppan: Expect a jump in ERA toward 5.00. None of his peripherals are especially strong. 5 Claudio Vargas: Killed by HR ball. Control is up and down. Low dominance. CL Francisco Cordero: Best closer in the division. High WHIP doesn't hurt him. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Johnny Estrada: Below-average defense. Low OBP. No power in his bat. 1B Prince Fielder: Huge breakout coming. Will hit at least 35 HRs and hit .300 with a high OBP. Good fielder. 2B Rickie Weeks: Terrible defense. If he stays healthy, he is one of the best 2B. Good power/speed combo. 3B Corey Koskie: Not bad in the field. Will hit 20 HRs with 400 PAs. Average OBP. SS J.J. Hardy: Must get his OBP way above where it is now. Power potential. Slick fielding. LF Geoff Jenkins: Nothing more than a borderline starter. CF Bill Hall: 35 HRs were for real. Has an outside shot at being a legit MVP contender. RF Corey Hart: 20 HR power. Could hit .300. -------------------------
Conclusion: Weeks, Hall, Fielder, and Hart could all hit 20 HRs. Kevin Mench should be playing over Jenkins; they will make an effective platoon in left. Koskie's defense should keep him the job at 3B over Ryan Braun. The lineup has no serious holes and the flexibility to patch any that come up. Sheets, Capuano, and Bush make one of the stronger #1-#3 pitching cominations in baseball. Suppan and Vargas are good back-end of the rotation guys. Hopefully Sheets can stay healthy. The bullpen will need to find the right group of guys to get the lead to star closer Francisco Cordero.
Projection: 90-72 1st in the NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Zach Duke: Potential to be a #2 starter, not an ace. ERA will be in low 4.00s. Stuff not that impressive. 2 Ian Snell: ERA in the low 4.00s. Good K rate. Average control. Could potentially dominate. 3 Paul Maholm: Control issues are holding him back. Nothing more than a #3 starter. 4 Tom Gorzelanny: Needs to work on his control. Keeps the ball in the yard. Expect a low 4.00s ERA. 5 Shawn Chacon: Terrible! Not worth giving up Craig Wilson for. Bad control... and everything else. CL Salomon Torres: Yet to see if he can handle closing. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Ronny Paulino: More than solid behind the plate. Future All-Star. Breakout candidate. 1B Adam LaRoche: Won't get much better than last year. Solid glove. Average player for 1B. 2B Jose Castillo: Horrendous at the plate and in the field. Needs to go. 3B Freddy Sanchez: Gold-glove grade defense. Offense likely to see a decline back toward average. Good starter, but not an All-Star. SS Jack Wilson: No one can doubt his masterful glovework. Would be an MVP candidate if his bat were anywhere near average. LF Jason Bay: Franchise player. MVP-caliber player. Plays Gold-Glove defense. Gets on-base at a high clip. 40-homer potential. CF Chris Duffy: Gave up on the Pirates last year. Blinding speed. Average bat w/ star potential. RF Xavier Nady: Solid major league hitter. Restricted upside. Will hit 20 HRs w/ a decent OBP. -------------------------
Conclusion: LaRoche gives the Pirates another good bat in the order, but Bay will carry the offense once again. GM Dave Littlefield didn't go out and sign terrible contracts like Jeromy Burnitz or Joe Randa this offseason, but he didn't do much of anything. Why won't Pittsburgh just keep their hands off of Jose Hernandez? The Pirates have been stealing the Giants strategy the last few years. One superstar surrounded by mediocre talent. All these top pitching prospects are not going to end up being more than #2 and #3 starters. Gorzelanny is the only one left with ace potential, but it is unlikely. They are going to have to go outside of the organization to find themselves an ace to put in front of all these cheap, young mid-rotation starters. Matt Capps and Damaso Marte are good relievers. Sean Burnett and John Van Benschoten are back and healthy; now, we have to wait and see if they can fulfill any of their pre-surgery potential.
Projection: 78-84 5th in the NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Chris Carpenter: Arguably the best pitcher in the league. Pinpoint control. Sub-3.00 ERA in 2007. 2 Kip Wells: Will struggle to stay healthy. ERA likely to be well over 4.00, but still has a low ERA hidden in there somewhere. 3 Anthony Reyes: Good upside. ERA will be in the mid-3.00s. Must keep the ball in the park better. 4 Adam Wainwright: Dominated in the pen. Has solid #2 starter stuff. 5 Brad Thompson: Groundball pitcher. Mid-3.00s ERA. Doesn't strike out enough people to be an ace. CL Jason Isringhausen: K rate has been decreasing as BB rate has been increasing. Needs to reverse that trend soon. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Yadier Molina: Best defensive catcher in the league. Period. Can't hit. 1B Albert Pujols: Best player in the world. Can hit 50 HRs, get on base 45% of the time, and play Gold-Glove defense. 2B Adam Kennedy: Bat peaked five years ago. Average hitter at best. Defense is valuable. 3B Scott Rolen: Will be healthy. One of the better hitters in the game. Add in his amazing defense and he is an MVP candidate. SS David Eckstein: Has a big heart, but isn't especially valuable to the team. Terrible bat and average glove. LF Chris Duncan: A lock for 30 HRs if he plays everyday. He is a star w/ the bat. Definite breakout season ahead. CF Jim Edmonds: Defense slipped last season. Power drastically declining. Still manages to get on base. RF Juan Encarnacion: Dreadful in the field. Won't reach 20 HRs. Average hitter all-around. -------------------------
Conclusion: The Cardinals go as far as Pujols can take them. A healthy Rolen and an Edmonds that finds the Fountain of Youth would make the best middle-of-the-order in the game. John Rodriguez is by far the best pinch hitter on the bench. Molina is the only one whose bat doesn't belong in the lineup, but his glove makes up for it. Carpenter is a sure-thing; while, Reyes, Thompson, and Wainwright could join him to make a strong one through four. Wells will quickly establish himself as the only one who doesn't give the Cards a chance to win every night. The Cardinals need a lot to go right for them, but this team has plenty of talent. Unfortunately, the team is getting old, and they used up most of their luck last season.
Projection: 80-82 4th in the NL Central
