2007 BBall's MLB Breakout Players
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
Here are the players who I believe are going to take their games to the next level in 2007.
--------------------------- 1. Prince Fielder 2. Fernando Cabrera 3. Jeremy Bonderman 4. Felix Hernandez 5. Dioner Navarro ---------------------------
Prince Fielder
Reasons for Concern: None really. If strikeouts concern you, he had over 125, but that really shouldn't be an issue. His OBP could have been a little higher last season, but he was a rookie.
Reasons for Optimism: 2006 was merely a taste of what this guy is going to do. Fielder will speed by 30 HRs this year, while keeping his doubles over 35, and boost his OBP up near .385. At 260 pounds, Fielder has surprising agility at first to make him a decent fielder. Fielder was a solid starter last season, but he will soon enter the MVP discussion.
Fernando Cabrera
Reasons for Concern: His weaknesses last year were a high HR rate and a terrible walk rate. Cabrera is an extreme flyball pitcher, but he has shown the ability to keep the ball in the park in the past. In fact, he had been exceptionally well at keeping the ball in the yard prior to 2006. His second weakness, control problems, have been visible throughout his minor league career. Cabrera showed great signs of harnessing his control at AAA in 2005, but it fell apart for him when he hit the majors.
Reasons for Optimism: Since single-A, Cabrera's K/9 has been above 9.12. It leaped to double digits, as soon as Cabrera hit AAA. Last year, against major league hitters, Cabrera struck out 10.53/9 innings in 51 games. This 25-year-old reliever has shown he can dominate major leaguers. Fernando Cabrera may have had a 5.19 ERA in 2006, but this man has the potential to take over as the Indians' closer.
Jeremy Bonderman
Reasons for Concern: Bonderman has thrown over 160 innings for four straight seasons, and over 180 for the past three. This workload may or may not catch up with Bonderman, but it should be in the discussion. Bonderman has yet to post an ERA under 4.00 in a season.
Reasons for Optimism:Over Bonderman's first four seasons, his ERA has gone from 5.56 to 4.89 to 4.57, and ended up at 4.08 in 2006. Over the same time, Bonderman has improved his control and raised his strikeout rate a notch. Home runs do not hurt the 24(yes, only 24)-year-old starter. Bonderman no longer has any weaknesses. Johan Santana will have Cy Young competition this season.
Felix Hernandez
Reasons for Concern: Hernandez's ERA jumped from 2.67 to 4.52 last season.
Reasons for Optimism: While Hernandez's ERA was not impressive, the other areas of his game were. After a low batting average on balls in play(BABIP) in 2005 of .257, the number was higher than average at .315 in 2006. So, his high ERA was partially due to bad luck. Hernandez saw a slight decline in his K rate and slight jumps in his HR rate and BB rate; yet, all three were still strong. Hernandez deserved a mid-3.00s ERA last season more than his 4.52. If Hernandez improves at all, and most likely he will at only 21-years-old, then his ERA could be sub-2.00 again. If Hernandez pitches the same, his ERA will decrease with just normal "luck." Last season was a slight bump in the road on his way to stardom.
Dioner Navarro
Reasons for Concern: Navarro has already been exiled to Tampa Bay in his young career. His OBP dropped to .316 last year and his slugging was a weak .342.
Reasons for Optimism: Navarro is only 22-years-old and has played 135 games in the major leagues. While most young players are still in AAA at his age, he has seen major-league at-bats in the past three seasons. His career OBP, even after last season's mess, is at .342. Navarro has the potential to post a high OBP and contribute to a team's offense.
