2007 BBall's AL West Preview
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
Los Angeles Angels
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 John Lackey: Dominance w/ control. Still improving. 2 Ervin Santana: ERA will stay around last season's 4.28. Average stuff. Limited potential. 3 Kelvim Escobar: Needs to stay healthy. Ace-like potential. 4 Jered Weaver: Best arm on the staff. 5 Bartolo Colon: Weak spot in the rotation. Good control. Hittable. CL Francisco Rodriguez: Best closer in the bigs. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Mike Napoli: Strong bat for a catcher. Low batting average, but makes up for it w/ good OBP and 20 HR power. Great defense. 1B Shea Hillenbrand: Horrendous in SF last year. OBP has stayed around .340. Generally an above-average hitter. 2B Howie Kendrick: Will compete w/ Cano for title of best 2B in the AL. Good power/ high BA. Future Gold Glover. 3B Chone Figgins: Value wrapped up in his blazing speed. SS Orlando Cabrera: Mediocore bat. Average glove. Borderline starter. LF Garret Anderson: Replaceable. Power has diminished. Doesn't get on base often enough. CF Gary Matthews Jr.: Expect a substantial decline from last season. RF Vladimir Guerrero: Superstar. 30+ HRs, 30+ 2Bs and 20+ SBs. DH Juan Rivera: Star potential w/ the bat. -------------------------
Conclusion:The Angels have defensive issues outside of the outstanding defense of Napoli and Kendrick. There are some major holes in this lineup. Figgins doesn't get on base enough to leadoff. Garret Anderson really does not belong near the top of an order anymore. Shea Hillenbrand, Casey Kotchman, and Kendry Morales are three unappealing options at first base. Robb Quinlan may be their best short-term solution. Howie Kendrick is the best hitter in the lineup besides superstar, Vladimir Guerrero. Napoli hits for a low average, but he gets on base. Kendrick, Weaver, Wood and Rodriguez, along with the young guys on the way, form a solid nucleus of guys under 25-years-old. The Angels could soon begin a mini-dynasty. The rotation has three potential aces in Lackey, Weaver, and a healthy Escobar. Santana has #2 stuff, which is more than needed from his role. Having to choose between Joe Saunders and Bartolo Colon for the fifth spot is a choice any team would love to have. Rodriguez and Scot Shields are the best 1-2 punch in any major league bullpen. The offense has its troubles, but the amazing pitching talent will pull them through in a big way.
Projection: 90-72 1st in the AL West
Oakland Athletics
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Rich Harden: Best stuff on the staff. Ace if he stays healthy. Blows hitters away. Keeps ball in the park. 2 Dan Haren: Pinpoint accuracy. One of the best #2 starters out there. 3 Joe Blanton: Good control. A small jump in K/9 is the difference between having #4 or #2 stuff. 4 Esteban Loaiza: Good control. Too hittable to keep his ERA below 4.60. 5 Joe Kennedy: Decent for the back end of a rotation. Expect a mid-4.00s ERA. CL: Huston Street: One of the best young closers in the game. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Jason Kendall: Nothing left in his bat. Upside of 1 HR. 1B Dan Johnson: Small upside. Bat good, but doesn't stand out at first base. 2B Mark Ellis: Good defense. Will improve from last season's dissapointment. 3B Eric Chavez: Best player on the team. SS Bobby Crosby: Will bounce back. Still won't be much better than average. LF Nick Swisher: Huge power. No major league track record of success to fall back on. CF Mark Kotsay: No power. Needs to get on base more. RF Milton Bradley: Above average bat. DH Mike Piazza: Bat not good enough to play every day at DH. Good thing he is no longer hurting teams w/ his poor defense. -------------------------
Conclusion: Not surprisingly, there are no superstars in the lineup. Kendall is a hole in the lineup, but otherwise they are solid. Hopefully their gamble on Piazza will pay off at least half as well as last year's signing of Frank Thomas. Like a typical A's team, they won't be stealing many bases with their slow foot speed. Oakland brings strong defense to the field. Haren will be the ace of this staff until Harden proves he can stay healthy. Blanton is a good #3 starter. Loaiza and Kennedy won't scare anyone, but they are serviceable at the back end. The bullpen stands out as this team's strength. Street is one of the top closers in the league. Duchscherer and Calero have closer potential themselves. After those three, Embree, Witasick, and Gaudin can all be trusted to handle the ball. This is your typical A's team.
Projection: 85-77 2nd in the AL West
Seattle Mariners
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Felix Hernandez: Keeps the ball on the ground. Had bad luck last season. He is an ace. 2 Jarrod Washburn: Control not bad. Doesn't strike out batters anymore. ERA will be over 4.00. 3 Jeff Weaver: Disappointing in both Anaheim and St. Louis last season. High BABIP in 2006, so expect ERA to come back down. 4 Miguel Batista: 36-years-old. His days left in baseball are ending. Terrible stuff. 5.00+ ERA. 5 Horacio Ramirez: Horrendous stuff. Good control, but couldn't strike a guy out to save his life. CL J.J. Putz: 30-years-old. Incredible last season. No flaws in his game. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Kenji Johjima: Good defense. Will improve a little over last season. Don't expect a HR increase. 1B Richie Sexson: 40-homer ceiling. Good OBP. Slick w/ the glove. 2B Jose Lopez: Young. Will improve. Breakout candidate. Terrible fielder. 3B Adrian Beltre: Bat has been a dissapointment in Seattle; his glove has not. SS Yuniesky Betancourt: Average fielder at best. Little power. Expect more of the same. LF Raul Ibanez: Won't repeat last year's 33 HRs-123 RBIs. Expect closer to 25 HRs-85 RBIs. Bad glove. CF Ichiro Suzuki: Will be valuable until he loses his speed. Intelligent basestealer. Single digit HRs. RF Jose Guillen: Low OBP. Borderline major-leaguer nowadays. DH Jose Vidro: Bat does not justify a DH spot. Mediocore OBP and zero power. -------------------------
Conclusion: The lineup does not have a star in it. Beltre, Ibanez, Sexson, and Johjima are all solid, but none of them can carry a squad. Vidro and Guillen will be noticeable holes in the lineup. Ben Broussard is a nice bat on the bench, but the rest of the backups are weak. Assuming a likely comeback from Felix, the rotation is one stud and four scrubs. Putz is a very good closer, but lacks a strong track record. Reitsma and Julio Mateo are strong in the pen, but gets considerably weaker after the first few arms.
Projection: 70-92 4th in the AL West
Texas Rangers
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Kevin Millwood: Expect 2006 numbers, not 2005. 3.80 ERA is the best-case scenario. Would make a good #2 starter. 2 Vicente Padilla: Will improve his ERA to around 4.00. Good stuff. 3 Brandon McCarthy: #2 potential. Good control. HR ball is his achilles heel. 4 Robinson Tejeda: Could totally collapse and end up w/ a sky-high ERA. Struggles w/ his control. 5 Edison Volquez: Will struggle to keep his ERA below 6.00. Terrible control. CL Eric Gagne: Will stay healthy and again be one of the top closers. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Gerald Laird: Gold-glove defense. Above-average bat for a catcher. 1B Mark Teixeira: 50 HR potential is gone, but 40 HRs is fine. Tremendous on-base skills. Deserves a Gold Glove. 2B Ian Kinsler: Below-average defense. Strong bat. Could hit 25 HRs. Fairly high upside. 3B Hank Blalock: Struggles in the field. Offense has declined from star to irrelevant. Expect a mild bounceback. SS Michael Young: Good glovework last season. Will hit .300 w/ 20 HRs. LF Brad Wilkerson: Will never hit 30 HRs again. Nothing more than an average bat. Needs to recapture his high OBP days. CF Kenny Lofton: Still has incredible speed as he enters his forties. Surprisingly effective at getting on base. RF Nelson Cruz: Old for a prospect. Will easily hit 30 HRs this season. Low OBP limits overall value/ upside. DH Frank Catalanotto: More of the same. A high OBP with single digit HRs. -------------------------
Conclusion: Lofton may not deserve to be a leadoff hitter anymore, but should suffice. Young and Teixeira make a strong top of the order, but Blalock took a step back last season. Depending on how Jason Botts and Sammy Sosa pan out this year, the bench could be extremely weak. Wilkerson needs to recover from his shoulder problems to add another valuable bat in the lineup. The rotation features two #2/#3 starters at the top, but then drops off. McCarthy has definite potential, but is far from a sure thing. Even if Gagne goes down again, the bullpen can take the hit with Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, Ron Mahay, Josh Rupe, Scott Feldman, C.J. Wilson, Frank Francisco and Wes Littleton all being legitimate arms capable of contributing.
Projection: 80-82 3rd in the AL West
