2007 BBall's AL East Preview
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
Baltimore Orioles
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Erik Bedard: ERA will fall closer to 4.00 this season. Clear ace of this staff. 2 Daniel Cabrera: Most dominant pitcher on this staff. Major control issues render him near ineffective. 3 Jaret Wright: Good for an ERA in the 5.00s this season. 4 Adam Loewen: Cabrera's control problems w/o the added dominance. Keeps the ball in the park. 5 Steve Trachsel: Pass. Strikeout rate could be lower than his walk rate. Ugh! CL Chris Ray: Almost a top-tier closer. Proved he could handle closing job in 2006. Prone to HR ball. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Ramon Hernandez: Definition of an average player. 1B Kevan Millar: No power for a first baseman. Good OBP saves him. Average defense. 2B Brian Roberts: Has already peaked. Don't wait for anything more than a .400 SLG and a .340 OBP. 3B Melvin Mora: Horrendous defense. SS Miguel Tejada: Player who you can build a team around. Best player on the team, offensively and defensively. LF Jay Payton: Good defense. Below-average bat. CF Corey Patterson: Speed demon. Has all the tools, but doesn't turn them into production. Flop. RF Nick Markakis: Nice upside. Great defense. Could breakout big this season. DH Aubrey Huff: Poor defense. Used to be a breakout candidate, but those days are over. -------------------------
Conclusion: One superstar (Tejada), a handful of average bats, and some big holes. Jay Payton provides nothing more than some solid defense. If Tejada goes down or continues to decline, this offense is dead. Bedard gives the O's a solid #1 man, but Cabrera and/or Loewen will need to fulfill their potential for the O's rotation to overcome Jaret Wright and Steve Trachsel. Solid closer and set-up man (Bradford), but bullpen lacks depth.
Projection: 78-84 4th in the AL East
Boston Red Sox
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Curt Schilling: Still an ace. Pinpoint control. 2 Josh Beckett: Last season was a fluke. Will bounce back. 3 Daisuke Matsuzaka: Most dominant pitcher on the staff. 4 Jonathan Papelbon: Extreme flyball pitcher, but doesn't struggle w/ HRs. 5 Tim Wakefield: Eats innings with an ERA in the high 4.00s. CL Joel Pineiro: Well, proved he can't start, so why not give him a try at closer? Does not have closer stuff. Potential disaster. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Jason Varitek: Average defensive catcher. Good bat for a catcher. 1B Kevin Youkilis: 20 homers and 30-40 doubles. Strong OBP. Defensive asset. 2B Dustin Pedroia: Highest upside. .300 hitter with doubles power. 3B Mike Lowell: Best defense on the team. Worst bat on the team. SS Julio Lugo: Great speed. Defense contributes more so than his bat. LF Manny Ramirez: Ugly on defense. Good for 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, and a .400 OBP. CF Coco Crisp: Fastest player on the team. Most likely to improve. RF J.D. Drew: If he stays healthy, will have an OBP near .400 and hit 25 HRs. DH David Ortiz: Will hit 50 HRs again. Will pass Manny as the best hitter on the team this season. -------------------------
Conclusion: Good defense around the field, minus the dreadful Manny Ramirez. The Red Sox have assembled a collection of hitters in their primes, except for Manny and Varitek (after) and Pedroia (before). Manny has lost more and more time to injuries the last few seasons, but Ortiz/Manny is still probably the best 3/4 hitting combo in baseball. If Drew stays healthy, the middle of the Red Sox lineup will destroy opposing pitchers. There are no weaknesses in the starting lineup and Wily Mo Pena provides some punch off the bench. The rotation consists of three young guys and two old guys, in the most basic observation. The staff in general has tremendous control. Schilling and Matsuzaka could both compete for the Cy Young. If Lester works his way back into the rotation, then Wakefield can help bolster the bullpen. Pineiro will be an interesting experiment at closer. The bullpen lacks a shutdown pitcher, but Timlin, Tavarez, Donnelly, and Romero are all valuable relievers.
Projection: 96-66 1st in the AL East
New York Yankees
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Chien-Ming Wang: Relies heavily on defense. Extreme groundball pitcher. Good control. 2 Mike Mussina: Great control. Strikes batters out just enough to be effective. Expect ERA in the low 4.00s. 3 Andy Pettitte: Ditto. 4 Kei Igawa: Ditto. 5 Carl Pavano: Doesn't walk hitters, because they are too busy getting hits. One of the worst free-agent signings. CL: Mariano Rivera: Future Hall-of-Famer still has it. Impossible to hit a HR off of (3 in 75.0 IP). ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Jorge Posada: One of the top offensive catchers. 1B Doug Mientkiewicz: Only player without an All-Star level bat. Defense is overrated. Offense is awful. 2B Robinson Cano: The sky is the limit for Cano. Gold-glove caliber defense. Good power. 3B Alex Rodriguez: Tremendous power. Liability on defense. One of the best players in the league. SS Derek Jeter: Most valuable player on the team (nothing to do w/ clutchness). Defense has vastly improved. LF Hideki Matsui: Fits in with rest of the team: high OBP/ above average power. CF Johnny Damon: Best speed on the team. Weak arm. Lots of extra base hits at top of the order. RF Bobby Abreu: Will go 20/20 with a .400 OBP. DH Jason Giambi: Good for a .400+ OBP and 30 homers. His decline phase will start very soon, but not in 2007. -------------------------
Conclusion: Cano (24) only player under 30 in the starting lineup. Eight of the nine batters range from average to All-Star. The ninth, Mientkiewicz, is one of the worst hitters to grace a starting lineup in baseball. If anyone can afford a hole like Mientkiewicz in their lineup, it is the star-studded Yankees. There is no depth to the bench. Melky Cabrera is the only decent bat riding the pine. Top prospect Philip Hughes could be the ace of this staff right now. It contains four #2 starters and a #5. Overall, the rotation has excellent control. Rivera is still an elite closer and Farnsworth, Vizcaino, Britton and Proctor make the Yankees bullpen a strength.
Projection: 95-67 2nd in the AL East
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Scott Kazmir: Unhittable at times. Control is his only problem. Expect an increase in ERA to high 3.00s. 2 Casey Fossum: ERA will end up around 5.00. Control issues. 3 Jae Seo: A bad stretch away from being out of the majors. Not good enough to challenge hitters. 4 James Shields: Very good control. Can be hittable. Best starter in the rotation after Kazmir. 5 Jason Hammel: Can't pitch much worse than 7.77 ERA last season. Nice potential. Good back-end of the rotation starter. CL: Seth McClung: Not closer-worthy stuff. Major control problems. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Dioner Navarro: Will bounce back in a huge way from last season. Solid bat. Defense is his strength. 1B Ty Wigginton: Mediocore offensive for 1B. Don't expect more than the 24 homers he hit last season. 2B Jorge Cantu: Worst bat in the lineup. Good power. Extremely low OBP. Defensive liability. 3B Akinori Iwamura: Should be an average hitter. Look for 20 HRs/.280 AVG. SS Ben Zobrist: Singles hitter. Good defense. LF Carl Crawford: May be the fastest player in the majors. Best player on the team. Good power for a speedster. CF Rocco Baldelli: Tremendous upside. 20/20 not a stretch. RF Delmon Young: Will be a 20/20 player very soon. One of the best prospects in the game. DH Jonny Gomes: One of the quickest swings in the majors. 40 homers would not surprise me. -------------------------
Conclusion: The Devil Rays are an extremely fast team, especially if B.J. Upton plays regularly. The entire starting lineup is under 30-years-old. First base is the only question mark. Wigginton and Norton should provide enough production. Success depends on how many of the youngsters break out and how many show their inexperience. Elijah Dukes and Evan Longoria are waiting in the wings for a call-up by the end of the season. Kazmir and probably Shields will be solid starters, but the rest of the rotation is a question mark. The bullpen has a couple of good arms in a healthy Chad Orvella, Ruddy Lugo and Shawn Camp. On no planet should McClung be a closer.
Projection: 75-87 5th in the AL East
Toronto Blue Jays
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Roy Halladay: Elite ace. Outstanding control. 2 A.J. Burnett: Good when healthy. Great stuff. Will improve on last season's 3.98 ERA. 3 Gustavo Chacin: Horrible. ERA will stay over 5.00. Struggles with the home run ball and control. 4 John Thomson: Falling dominance. Good control. Keeps the ball in the park. 5.00+ ERA. 5 Tomo Ohka: ERA around 5.00. Little dominance. OK control. Prepare for a collapse. CL B.J. Ryan: Awesome. Hitters have no chance against him. Extreme flyball pitcher, but balls don't leave the park. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Greg Zaun: Good on-base skills for a catcher. Little power. Below average defensively. 1B Lyle Overbay: Expect 20 HR/ 30 2B output. Strong OBP. Solid defense. 2B Aaron Hill: Strong fielder. Acceptable OBP. Mediocore power. 3B Troy Glaus: Will hit 40 homers. Solid on-base percentage. Strikes out a lot, but it doesn't hurt his production. SS Royce Clayton: Liability at the plate and in the field. Russ Adams should take his spot. LF Reed Johnson: Below average bat. Little power. Defense a plus. CF Vernon Wells: Best player on the team. Good speed/power combo. RF Alex Rios: Low OBP. Decent power. Fastest player on the team. DH Frank Thomas: Best hitter on the team. Expect 35-40 HRs. -------------------------
Conclusion: The Blue Jays have an average defense. They are extremely weak at SS with Clayton, John McDonald, and Russ Adams. In last year's preview, I said something along the lines of Reed Johnson would be the worst player in the league. Well, I'll admit he was actually, good, very good last year. However, I think that was a fluke and am going to predict he will be one of the least valuable starters in the league in 2007. The Blue Jays need big years from Wells, Glaus, and Thomas to make up for holes elsewhere. The rotation is anchored by Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay and a hopefully healthy A.J. Burnett. The rest of the rotation is feeble. The bullpen is what puts the Blue Jays over the Devil Rays and Orioles. Ryan, Brandon League, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Jeremy Accardo are all strong relievers.
Projection: 81-81 3rd in AL East
Here is why I am not a believer. His batting average when he put the ball in play in 2006 was .367. His career BABIP is only .333, including last season's number. A .367 is unlikely to be sustainable. So, when it falls back toward .333, he will lose points off of his Batting Average. Since his value in 2006 was not due to any skill improvements, his value will fall.
In short, his success last year seemed to be due in large part to luck, not a late breakout performance.
Also, check out these splits.
Pre-All Star: .365/.451/.507
Post-All Star: .283/.338/.457