2007 BBall's AL Central Preview
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by user Timothy Moreland (Bball3345)
MLB Preview: AL Central
Chicago White Sox
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Jose Contreras: Suited for a #3 spot, not #1. Good control, but doesn't strike batters out. 35-years-old. 2 Mark Buehrle: Will bounce back w/ an ERA in the low 4.00s. Pinpoint control. Struggles at times w/ HR ball. 3 Jon Garland: Similar to Buehrle. Awesome control. Will never be dominant enough to get his ERA back under 4.00. 4 Javier Vazquez: He will be their ace. Expect a sub-4.00 ERA. Must keep the ball in the park. 5 John Danks: Control problems hurt his upside. Balls fly out of the park against him. Good strikeout pitcher. CL Bobby Jenks: High walk rate holding him back. Will improve on last season's 4.00 ERA. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C A.J. Pierzynski: Average bat for a catcher. 15 HRs is the most to expect. Doesn't get on-base very often. 1B Paul Konerko: Will hit closer to 30 HRs than 40. Good for 100 RBIs and a high OBP. Star bat overshadows his solid glove. 2B Tadahito Iguchi: Bigtime liability on defense. Decent bat for 2B. Expect the same as last season. 3B Joe Crede: Gold Glover. 30 HRs is as high as he'll get. A bump in OBP would make him a star. SS Juan Uribe: Still some upside. Good for 20 HRs, could hit 30. His average will bounce back to .260 range. LF Scott Podsednik: Blazing speed. Should not be in a starting lineup. His only use should be as a pinch runner. CF Brian Anderson: Impressive w/ the glove in 2006. Horrible with the bat. He will improve, but still not be worthy of a starting spot. RF Jermaine Dye: HR production will come back down to 30. Unfortunately, his OBP will drop too. Expect 2005, not 2006 numbers. DH Jim Thome: I bet he doesn't stay healthy 2 years in a row. Will struggle to hit 30 HRs this year. -------------------------
Conclusion: Podsednik may miss part of the season. With a good replacement option, that could have ended up being a good thing. Unfortunately, Darin Erstad is worse and Josh Fields is only slightly better. Iguchi, Thome, Konerko, Dye, Crede form a solid core. Brian Anderson cannot repeat his sub-.300 OBP for the White Sox to score enough runs. Dye won't repeat his MVP-caliber performance, Thome is never a sure-thing to stay healthy, and Konerko won't be getting any better. Ryan Sweeney should help out this year and Rob Mackowiak is always a good guy to have on the bench. The rotation has four solid pitchers, but no ace. Buehrle, Garland, and Vazquez all had ERAs above 4.50 last season. Gavin Floyd or John Danks must breakout this season, or there will be a huge hole in the five spot. Jenks gives the White Sox a top closer and MacDougal is a valuable reliever. They don't have much after those two.
Projection: 77-85 4th in the AL Central
Cleveland Indians
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 C.C. Sabathia: Still in his mid-20's. Will have an ERA in the low-3.00s. Great control. Ace. 2 Cliff Lee: Dominance has fallen since 2004. Lets up too many HRs. ERA in the mid-4.00s 3 Jake Westbrook: Little dominance, but does everything else right. Extreme groundball pitcher. 4 Paul Byrd: Tremendous control, but the compliments end there. Extremely hittable. Ball flies out of the park against him. 5 Jeremy Sowers: Good upside. Could be a mid-rotation starter by his prime. Too hittable right now. CL Joe Borowski: High walk rate. Low K rate for a closer. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Victor Martinez: Could challenge Mauer for title of best catcher if his defense wasn't so horrendous. 1B Casey Blake: Past his prime. Expect a substantial decline in offense. 2B Josh Barfield: Tremendous glove. Good speed. Outside shot at 20/20. Potential All-Star. 3B Andy Marte: A lock for 20 HRs. Good glove. Does not look close to a surefire superstar anymore. SS Jhonny Peralta: Best glove in the AL. Struggled on offense last season. Will hit 20 HRs and have a .350+ OBP. Potential MVP candidate. LF Dave Dellucci: Will always find a way to get on base. Defense is average, but bat is well above. If he plays everyday, he could be a superstar. CF Grady Sizemore: Most valuable player on the team. Will be an MVP candidate for a long time. 30/20 w/ a high OBP. RF Trot Nixon: Nice if he could stay healthy. Gets on base. DH Travis Hafner: Best hitter in the AL. Will hit 50 HRs w/ a .450 OBP and .700 SLG this season. -------------------------
Conclusion: The Indians have a "Stars and Scrubs" lineup. Hafner, Sizemore, and Victor Martinez are at or near the top of their positions offensively. Peralta should rebound and be an above-average offensive player. The rest of the lineup fields two guys unlikely to play much more than 3/4 of the season (Dellucci and Nixon), a fading prospect (Marte), and a slick-fielding 2Bman with an average-at best bat. Shin-Soo Choo could fill in nicely for Nixon, if (when) he goes down. Sabathia is an ace, and Westbrook should maintain his low-4.00s ERA. Lee, Byrd, and Sowers adequately fill the back 60% of the rotation. With Foulke retiring, Borowski takes over at closer, for now. Betancourt is the best reliever in the pen. Jason Davis, Fernando Cabrera, and Fausto Carmona(if he relieves) are all solid relievers.
Projection: 94-68 1st in the AL Central
Detroit Tigers
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Kenny Rogers: 42-years-old. Expect his ERA to jump above 4.50. Got lucky last season. 2 Jeremy Bonderman: #1 breakout candidate. Fabulous control. Dominant. Keeps the ball in the park. ERA under 3.20 this season. 3 Nate Robertson: Last year's 3.84 ERA is not repeatable. Will end up closer to 4.20. 4 Justin Verlander: Doesn't have dominant stuff. Still should achieve a high-3.00s ERA. 5 Mike Maroth: Repeat of 2005 in 2007. ERA will end up in the high-4.00s. Let's the batters put the ball in play. CL Todd Jones: Great control. Low K rate. Hittable. 39-years-old. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Ivan Rodriguez: Average bat. Look for 10 HRs and a low OBP. Still guns down baserunners. 1B Sean Casey: Bat not good enough for 1B anymore. Weak. Becoming a liability on defense. Should be on some team's bench. 2B Placido Polanco: Lost his offensive skill last season. Don't expect it back. Good w/ the glove. 3B Brandon Inge: HR outburst was for real. Low OBP kills his value. Gold-Glove worthy. In his prime. SS Carlos Guillen: Strong glove. MVP candidate. High OBP. Racks up extra-base hits. Good speed. LF Craig Monroe: Low OBP. Home run totals mask his drain on the offense. CF Curtis Granderson: Will hit 25 HRs. Gold-Glove worthy. Could turn the corner into stardom in 2007. RF Magglio Ordonez: Has fallen far. He is running out of days. Still an average bat w/ poor fielding ability. DH Gary Sheffield: Won't recover fully from injuries. Unlikely to get 500 PAs. Will be effective enough when in the lineup. -------------------------
Conclusion: Guillen is one of the best SS in the league and is the nucleus of an otherwise shaky lineup. Granderson is solid atop the lineup and has power potential. If healthy, Sheffield and Magglio could form a strong middle of the order. Despite Jim Leyland referring to Sean Casey as the guy he most wants at the plate, Casey is the biggest hole in the lineup and should be backing up Shelton. Marcus Thames and Chris Shelton lead an otherwise shallow bench. Even with Rogers getting more ancient, this rotation will be solid again. Bonderman is primed for a great season and Verlander and Robertson are strong middle-of-the-rotation guys. Jones is not the best arm in the pen, but he has two of the top relievers setting him up for the ninth inning. Joel Zumaya may be the best setup man in the league, striking out 97 with his 100+ mph fastball. Fernando Rodney does not have quite the dominance as his fellow reliever, but he still brings it.
Projection: 85-77 3rd in the AL Central
Kansas City Royals
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Gil Meche: Hmmm... his ERA will not be under 5.00; yet, he is the Royals' ace. Gotta make you chuckle. 2 Odalis Perez: Just keeps getting worse and worse. Expect a small turnaround to at least an ERA of 5.00. 3 Luke Hudson: Major control issues. Does not dominate hitters. ERA will be near 5.00. 4 Jorge de la Rosa: His ERA has no limit to how high it could get. Can blow the ball by hitters, but more often he walks them. 5 Brian Bannister: An ERA of 4.00 is the absolute best scenario. More likely in the 5.00s. CL Octavio Dotel: 13 RA in 10 IP last season. Has to prove himself after TJ surgery. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Jason LaRue: Defense is the only thing keeping him in the lineup. Horrendous bat. 1B Ryan Shealy: Might hit 30 HRs, but still won't be good enough to have much value at first base. 2B Mark Grudzielankek: Old. Not worth much anymore. 3B Alex Gordon: Look for a .290 average with 25 HRs. Will soon be the best in the AL at 3B. SS Angel Berroa: Former Rookie of the Year is completely useless. Quite possibly the worst player in the majors. LF Emil Brown: Poor defense hurts the value added by his solid bat. CF David DeJesus: Not a future star, but will be a key player on this team. High OBP and solid defense. Limited power. RF Mark Teahen: Great w/ the glove at 3B. Won himself a permanent spot on the team last season. Future All-Star. DH Mike Sweeney: His time as the "face of the franchise" needs to end. He really is nothing more than an average hitter, at best. -------------------------
Conclusion: If it weren't for Teahen and Gordon, this team would have nothing to feel good about. The rest of the lineup will struggle to produce, with LaRue and Berroa continuing to convince us that they don't belong in the majors. The rotation is pitiful. Gil Meche is their #1 starter. GIL MECHE! Short of Zack Greinke turning back into the next Greg Maddux, this rotation will be a laughing stock. The bullpen isn't much better. Joel Peralta is a pretty good arm, but any compliments end right there.
Projection: 62-100 5th in the AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Johan Santana: Mr. Cy Young again. Best arm in the majors. No weaknesses. 2 Boof Bonser: Needs to keep his walk rate down. Best case scenario: 3.60 ERA. 3 Carlos Silva: Relies on his defense and luck for success. Expect his ERA to fall between 2005's and 2006's, closer to 2006. 4. Ramon Ortiz: Mediocore control. Subpar strikeout rate. Struggles w/ the home run. ERA around 5.00. 5 Matt Garza: Good upside. Sub-4.00 ERA a possibility. Must cut his walk rate. 6 Scott Baker: Good control. Mid-4.00s ERA sounds about right. CL Joe Nathan: Strikeout rate out of this world. Unhittable. Pinpoint control. The complete package. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Joe Mauer: Most valuable player in the AL. 20 HR potential along w/ Gold-Glove caliber defense. Sky-high OBP. 1B Justin Morneau: Star that was mistaken for a superstar last season. Could definitely hit 40+ HRs. 2B Luis Castillo: Average hitter. Gets on-base and has good speed. 3B Nick Punto: In his prime years. Borderline-starter. Average glove. SS Jason Bartlett: If he can improve upon last season's offensive output, his glove could make him an All-Star. LF Rondell White: Can't they learn? White does not belong in a starting lineup. CF Torii Hunter: Defense has declined to average. 30/20 potential. Solid starter who could make a run at an MVP if healthy. RF Mike Cuddyer: No defensive ability. Last season was as good as his bat will get. DH Jason Kubel: Good shot at 20 HRs. OBP needs to get into the mid-.300s to justify his spot. -------------------------
Conclusion: Other than the embarrasing hole in LF with White, the lineup is solid from top to bottom. Castillo doesn't have power, but he gets on base more than often enough to be a good leadoff hitter. Mauer is the best hitter at his position. Cuddyer, Morneau, and Hunter aren't the most dangerous middle of an order, but they get the job done. The defense is solid around the field, except for Cuddyer and White. There isn't much depth to the bench. The rotation features the best starter in the world, followed by four back-of-the-rotation pitchers. Luckily, the bullpen is insanely strong and deep. Rincon, Crain, Neshek, Reyes, and Guerrier are all effective arms. All of them except for Guerrier have the dominance to close games. Such a deep pen relieves pressure from the starters, but the starters need to go deep enough in the games to keep the bullpen from wearing out early in the season.
Projection: 91-71 2nd in the AL Central
