2006 Chicago Bears Preview
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by user Fornelli
2005 Record: 11-5 (Division champs)
2006 Prediction: 10-6 (Division Champs)
Offense
There is no beating around the bush here. Last year's Bears offense was as bad at moving the ball as Paris Hilton is at staying on her feet. In other words, they couldn't do it for more than 3-4 minutes at a time. The big reason for this was the fact that Kyle Orton was playing quarterback. Luckily that shouldn't happen this season. The Bears signed Brian Griese to back up the oft-injured Rex Grossman, so two QB's will have to go down before Kyle can put down his fifth of Jack Daniels, and replace it with his helmet.
The addition of Muhsin Muhammed before last season proved disappointing, as Moose only had 64 receptions for 750 yards and 4 touchdowns. He did lead the league in dropped passes though, so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Again, with Orton being replaced by Grossman, I'd look for Moose to bounce back this year and finish with something like 900 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Behind Muhammed though, the Bears don't have much at the wide receiver position. Second-year player Mark Bradley showed promise last season, but a torn ACL quickly squashed that, and it should take him until about Week 9 to really start getting back his chops. Bernard Berrian is a speed guy who can get open deep but needs to work on his short routes. The team really likes Airese Currie but Currie has never been able to stay healthy long enough to see the playing field. Then there is Justin Gage, who showed signs of being a solid player his rookie season but has done nothing but disappoint since.
The Bears strength on offense is easily their ground game. With the trio of Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson the Bears could have the deepest corps in the NFL. Jones is unhappy about his situation right now, and he has a right to be. The Bears feel that he is not the right fit for their system, yet he somehow managed to gain over 1,300 yards in it last season. I have a feeling all the money the Bears are paying last season's 4th overall pick, Benson, is what leads the team to believe Jones might not be the right player. Still with the way that NFL teams need to rely on more than one RB these days, I wouldn't expect the Bears to deal Thomas Jones. If anything he's just going to have to learn to co-exist and split carries with Cedric Benson. The Bears still aren't sure what they have with Benson, he held out during training camp last season and was slow to get involved in the offense. Then just as he was getting a grip on things, running all over the 49ers in Week 10, Benson hurt his knee and was effectively shut down for the season. The biggest X-factor in this whole thing is Adrian Peterson. According to the 2006 Football Prospectus, that has a statistic called DVOA used to determine the most productive players, Adrian Peterson wasn't only the best running back on the Bears last season, he was the best running back in the NFL last season. (I'd try to explain DVOA to you, but the truth is I'm not smart enough to completely understand it myself. Essentially it looks past the normal stats of yards, and looks at the situation of each play. Like if Adrian Peterson ran for an 8 yard gain, but it was on 3rd and 10, then it wasn't exactly a successful play. Effectively, it rates a person's success rate per play.) It's doubtful Peterson will ever get a chance to be a feature back with the Bears, but one day he could find himself in a starting role for another team.
The Bears offensive line is largely unknown but very effective. Led by Olin Kreutz at center, the offensive line was largely responsible for Thomas Jones' performance last season, and the fact that Kyle Orton had any time to overthrow his receivers by 10 yards. The entire group returns this year with tackles John Tait and Fred Miller, and guards Terrence Metcalf and Ruben Brown. They also have Roberto Garza who rotates in a few series a game to keep the line fresh. It will be on these guys to make sure Rex Grossman doesn't trip over a blade of grass and shatter his spine in 14 different places.
Defense
Oh, the defense. If there's one thing Chicago football fans love, it's defense, and they have the best in the NFL. The defense that allowed a league low 202 points against in 2005 is back in it's entirety, and even added a little depth in the secondary with offseason signings of Dante Wesley and Ricky "Laptops are for Pussies" Manning. Then the Bears went and used their first five draft picks on defensive players to add even more depth.
Everything that happens in Lovie Smith's and Ron Rivera's defensive scheme depends on the front four. With Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye on the ends, and a rotation of Ian Scott, Alfonso Boone, Tommie Harris, and Tank Johnson at tackle,this is easily the best unit in the NFL. It's built more on speed than size and it works really well in the Bears scheme. While Ogunleye and Brown are better known for getting to the QB, they don't get near the recognition they deserve for their ability to stop the run. With the four-man rotation in the middle, it ensures that the smaller line always stays fresh and doesn't wear down against the 375-pound behemoths who stand in their way.
Of course, the most celebrated aspect of the Bears defense is the linebackers, led by Brian Urlacher. Now Urlacher gets most of the attention on a national level, whether he's being lauded as the greatest thing since sliced bread or the most overrated player in football. The truth is the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year is probably somewhere in between. There aren't many linebackers in the NFL who are just as capable at chasing Mike Vick down AND being able to stay step for step with a wide reciever. Urlacher can do both. He's joined by fellow Pro Bowler Lance Briggs, who earned a vote himself in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. Much was made of Briggs skipping voluntary workouts with the team this spring and wanting a contract extension. Well, the word voluntary generally means you aren't required to go. And as far as wanting an extension, how many NFL players DON'T want a contract extension at any given point? The way I look at it is Briggs should be even better this year than he has been so he can get even more money. Hunter Hillenmeyer rounds out the linebackers, and his job is to basically stay out of Brian's and Lance's way as they make play after play. If he contributes a tackle here and there, that's terrific.
The most maligned part of the Bears defense is the secondary. Charles Tillman has taken a lot of crap for his performance against Carolina in the playoffs last year, and deservedly so. Tillman isn't as bad as a lot of people think though. He gave up a lot of touchdowns last year (5) but there wasn't a cornerback in the NFL who had as high a percentage of passes against thrown his way. 40% of opponents passes were thrown to the man Tillman covered last year. The next highest percentage in the NFL was Ike Taylor of the Steelers who got 36% of the attention. Some people would look at that as an indictment on Tillman's ability. I see it more as a compliment to the other Bears' corner Nathan Vasher. Nathan Vasher is a ball hawk, and he led the Bears in interceptions last year with 8. Most Bears fans though, will remember his amazing return of a missed field goal 108 yards for a touchdown. The Bears also signed Ricky Manning and Dante Wesley in the offseason to add depth to the secondary after the retirement of Jerry Azumah.
At the safety position the Bears are also solid. Mike Brown is a team leader and always seems to be in the right place at the right time. He is also very useful against the run in short yardage situations. The surprise of last season's secondary was rookie Chris Harris. Harris' strength is playing the run, as he has been burned deep. Most people tend to overlook the fact that in the Bears cover-2 scheme, it was Harris who was responsible for helping Charles Tillman with over the top coverage on Steve Smith in that divisional round loss. It's Harris' lack of deep ball skills that lead some to believe draft pick Danieal Manning may take his starter job from him. Danieal has been very impressive so far in training camp, as it seems the coaching staff doesn't have enough wonderful things to say about him. I don't think Manning takes Harris' job in the preseason, but he may be starting before the season ends.
Special Teams
Robbie Gould did an acceptable job kicking for the Bears last season after taking over for Doug Brien early. The fact he was only 3-8 from beyond 40 yards, and never even tried a kick over 50 yards is a little disconcerting. Gould will have to improve his accuracy from long range if he plans on holding the job until the end of this season. Punter Brad Maynard would probably have been the Offensive MVP for the Bears if not for Thomas Jones. His ability to pin teams deep into their own territory made it easier for the Bears defense all season. Here's hoping the offense doesn't have to rely on him as much this season. As for the return game the Bears drafted Devin Hester with the intent of having him return kicks. He'll have to compete with Bernard Berrian for the role in training camp, but seeing what Hester did in college I think he'll win that job pretty easily. Hell as long as he can just hold onto the ball he'll be a huge improvement over Bobby Wade last season.
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Date
Fri 08/04/06, 2:53 pm EST
