2006-07 NBA Capsules: Pacific
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by user Davis21wylie
| 2006-07 NBA Capsules | |
| Atlantic | |
| Central | |
| Southeast | |
| Southwest | |
| Northwest | |
| Pacific | |
| The Playoffs | |
| 101 Reasons... | |
| Rookies Most Likely To... | |
Each team's capsule contains the key info about their chances in the 2006-07 season. The depth charts feature projected Player Efficiency Ratings, John Hollinger's all-in-one method of player evaluation. More info on PER is available here, but suffice to say that anything above 20.00 means you're doing very well, 15.00 is average, and anything under 10.00 means you're clinging to a spot in the league. Projections were created using Basketball-Reference's Similarity Scores. Defensive grades reflect man-to-man ability and awareness in a team context. Any other questions about the statistical methods in the preview are addressed here.
1. Phoenix Suns (Projected: 52-30)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
54-28, Finished 1st in NBA Pacific Division Scored 8886 points, Allowed 8431 points Expected W-L: 55-27 Coached by Mike D'Antoni (54-28) Pace Factor: 95.8 (1st out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 111.6 (2nd out of 30) Defense - 105.7 (16th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .544 (4th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost West Conf Finals (4-2) to Dallas Mavericks Won West Conf Semis (4-3) over Los Angeles Clippers Won West Conf 1st Rd (4-3) over Los Angeles Lakers
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Steve Nash 20.5 C
SG Raja Bell 13.0 A
SF Boris Diaw 15.5 B
PF Shawn Marion 20.0 B+
C Amare Stoudemire 23.5 D
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PG2 Marcus Banks 13.5 C
SG2 Leandro Barbosa 14.5 D
SF2 James Jones 13.0 C
PF2 Kurt Thomas 13.5 B
C2 Sean Marks 10.5 D
BN Eric Piatkowski 10.0 F
BN Jumaine Jones 12.0 C
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Proj. ORtg: 110.2 (1st)
Proj. DRtg: 106.0 (15th)Point Guard: Okay, while he may not have been the real mvp, Steve Nash was definitely the best point guard in the entire league last year. We all know about the out-of-this-world passing and dribbling skills that Nash possesses, but his shooting numbers were nothing short of unbelievable last season as well: he shot .512 from the floor despite the fact that 76% of his attempts were jumpers; he nailed 44% of his 3-pointers despite the fact that he attempted more than 4 a game; and he averaged 1.26 points per shot attempt, the most of any player in the NBA, while maintaining a usage rate that was among the highest in the league (most of the NBA leaders in pts/shot have low usages -- they're big men who are limited to lay-ups when they shoot at all). Hmmm, maybe he was the MVP... At any rate, Nash is the main catalyst of Phoenix's remarkable offensive onslaught, and he hasn't broken down at the end of the year as much as he did in Dallas (which was Mark Cuban's main reason for not re-signing him in 2004). Nash's defense is a weakness, but it's a small price to pay for the game's best (and most exciting) floor general. Marcus Banks was signed as Nash's backup, and he enjoyed something of a breakout last year after being dealt to Minnesota; he can score and pass a little, and his shooting isn't going to hurt the team.
Shooting Guard: Raja Bell was signed in the summer of 2005 to give the Suns a much-needed defensive stopper on the wing, and he has definitely lived up to that expectation, bottling up opposing SG's and SF's with his tough, take-no-quarter play. An added bonus, however, has been Bell's development into one of the league's best 3-point shooters -- he drained 197 trifectas last year at a rate of 44.2%, good for 5th among all players. Bell doesn't add much offense beyond the long-range shooting, but he doesn't need to because his defense is so good. All in all, Bell has exceeded everyone's wildest expectations during his stint in Phoenix. Former PG Leandro Barbosa will move to the 2 to accomodate Banks, and he's probably more comfortable at shooting guard anyway. One of the NBA's fastest players, Barbosa is a deadly all-around offensive weapon who can shoot the lights out and/or beat his man easily off the dribble. Coming off of a breakout season in 05-06, and no longer being encumbered by a point guard role that doesn't suit him, look for Barbosa to be one of the NBA's top 6th men in 06-07. Shooting specialist Eric Piatkowski's career looked all but through last year in Chicago, but if there's anywhere he could stick, it's Phoenix.
Small Forward: Having been simply awful for two seasons in Atlanta, hopes were not exactly high for Boris Diaw upon his arrival in Phoenix... But the lanky 6'8" Frenchman blossomed in the desert, earning a starting role by late November and never looking back -- netting himself the Most Improved Player award in the process. Just about every aspect of Diaw's game got better last year, but mostly it was an increased aggressiveness that sparked his "juvenation": in 04-05, only 28% of Diaw's FGA's came from inside the paint, but he upped that to 43% last year; additionally, his rebounding and usage rates were up, meaning that Diaw was going to the basket and generally being less fearful about making mistakes than he had been in Atlanta. Since Diaw was already a great passer and a natural defender by virtue of his length, his offensive explosion simply made him one of the most valuable forwards in the league, a status that he should enjoy once again in 06-07. The oft-confused pair of James Jones and Jumaine Jones will back up Diaw. Both are 6'8" forwards, but both like to shoot threes. Both are solid defensively. They say that if you ever meet yourself, it could cause a time paradox that makes the universe implode; let's hope that Phoenix's two Joneses are actually two different people, then, because this is getting kinda scary...
Power Forward: Mr. Versatility, Shawn Marion, will once again anchor Phoenix's frontcourt, which means that once again he'll be the most underappreciated member of their lineup. If you want to be real about it, Marion was probably far more valuable to the Suns last season than Nash was, since he does so much for them at both ends. Marion is a stellar scorer and rebounder, a high-percentage shooter (despite a comically un-fundamentally sound stroke), and a solid, physical defender. Most importantly, he'll do whatever the team asks of him, whether it be to play small forward, undersized power forward, or even center in a pinch, all without losing an ounce of effectiveness. Nash may get all of the ink, but don't kid yourself -- Marion is just as vital (if not more vital) to the Suns' fortunes as his (formerly) hairy teammate. Tough veteran Kurt Thomas hopes to be healthy this season, and he can help this defense while not taking away from the offense. Diaw's emergence may have made Thomas the odd man out when it comes to minutes, though, especially when Stoudemire returns to the lineup full-time.
Center: Amare Stoudemire was arguably the Suns' best player two years ago, but he had the dreaded microfracture surgery last year. It remains to be seen how much of his old form he has retained, since most of his 04-05 dominance hinged on his freakish athleticism. If Amare is back at 100%, he instantly gives Phoenix one of the top players in the NBA, a devastating big man that can intimidate down low with raw power, explosive quickness, and scary leaping ability. However, 100% recovery from that surgery is anything but a given, and don't be surprised if Stoudemire is never again the same player that he was in 04-05. Fortunately, the Suns got along, oh, I'd say "pretty well" without him last season, so they can afford to keep bringing him along slowly. And if he does come back at even close to his levels of two years ago, he might just put the Suns over the championship hump.
Outlook: Yes, they're a vogue title pick, but what's not to like? They're adding Stoudemire (and a healthy Thomas) to a core group that came within 1 game of a Finals berth last season. The latter fact should bolster their defense, the former their offense (which was already outstanding), and they've got one of the best coaching minds in the business to guide them along the way. Rebounding and post defense are certainly concerns, but this offense is so explosive that they could beat anyone in a best-of-seven series. Championship favorites? You betcha.
2. Los Angeles Lakers (Projected: 46-36)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
45-37, Finished 3rd in NBA Pacific Division Scored 8154 points, Allowed 7949 points Expected W-L: 48-34 Coached by Phil Jackson (45-37) Pace Factor: 90.9 (15th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 108.6 (8th out of 30) Defense - 105.5 (15th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .516 (10th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost West Conf 1st Rd (4-3) to Phoenix Suns
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Smush Parker 15.0 D
SG Kobe Bryant 23.0 B
SF Vladimir Radmanovic 13.0 D
PF Lamar Odom 16.5 B
C Kwame Brown 11.5 B
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PG2 Shammond Williams 13.0 D
SG2 Maurice Evans 13.0 C
SF2 Luke Walton 12.0 C
PF2 Brian Cook 13.5 D
C2 Chris Mihm 14.5 D
BN Sasha Vujacic 12.5 C
BN Jordan Farmar 11.0 C
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Proj. ORtg: 108.3 (4th)
Proj. DRtg: 106.3 (18th)Point Guard: For most teams, Smush Parker wouldn't be anyone's idea of an answer at point guard, but the Lakers had employed Tierre Brown the year before, so Parker actually brought stability and an upgrade to the position. Parker is primarily a shoot-first point who can really knock down jumpers when he gets locked in, but he also managed the Lakers' offense fairly well last season (they were 4 efficiency points better when he was on the floor than off, although that also speaks to the team's lack of quality backups). Obviously, you'd like to see him be a better distributor, but this is the Triangle, so as long as he keeps shooting well he should keep playing. Just in case Parker's shot deserts him, though, Shammond Williams was plucked from Europe this summer. Williams is basically a Parker clone with a streakier shot, but he will figure into the mix if he shows more inclination to pass than he did in his first NBA go-round. Behind them, rookie Jordan Farmar will battle veterans Sasha Vujacic and Aaron McKie for garbage minutes. Farmar can defend and pass, but his turnover rates in college were monstrous, and his scoring ability is suspect. Vujacic is a purer point than either Parker or Williams, but he has dreadful shot selection. McKie is basically washed up.
Shooting Guard: Just when everyone had written off Kobe Bryant as merely another Penny Hardaway, a guy who couldn't cut it without the Big Aristotle in tow, the Black Mamba absolutely went off on the league last year. His scoring rate (34.6 pts/40) was truly remarkable, but almost more impressive was the way he kept his shooting efficiency high and turnovers low while taking on a Jordanesque number of possessions. I don't know if Bryant can ever repeat what he did last year, but he'll continue to be one of the game's best players in 06-07 -- although I'm still scratching my head about his bizarre 1-point, 3-shot second half in Game 7 of the Phoenix series. The Lakers traded for former Piston Maurice Evans this summer, and he'll be Bryant's backup. Evans is surprisingly solid at both ends, and his 3-point shooting should be a good fit within the triangle. At least one of the 3 combo guards L.A. has at the point could also see time here.
Small Forward: Guys that can knock down open shots are of paramount importance in the triangle offense, and L.A. didn't have enough of them last year (aside from Bryant, only Parker and Odom made more than 50 threes). Luckily, if there's one thing that newcomer Vladimir Radmanovic can do, it's shoot -- Radmanovic is a career .381 shooter from downtown, and he drilled 138 treys last season at a .390 clip. Of course, that's all Radmanovic can do, as he's a soft rebounder and defender who, despite standing 6'10", prefers to stand around at the arc and wait for kick-outs. Backup Luke Walton continues to be overmatched as a scorer at the NBA level, but he can pass and defend, which makes him slightly better than the replacement level.
Power Forward: Lamar Odom continues to be the Lakers' unsung hero, deferring to Bryant at every opportunity while simultaneously doing all of the dirty work that helps win games. Odom's scoring rate hit an all-time low last year, mostly because he was shooting less than ever before, but he made the most of his chances when he did shoot (55.8 TS%, .372 on threes), he hit the boards diligently (ranking among the top forwards in rebound rate), and he showed surprising prowess as a distributor when Jackson employed him as a "point forward". Expect more of the same from Odom this year whether or not Bryant lets him shoot more, because he's a tough, team-first guy who will do whatever he can to help the team win. Backup Brian Cook is another guy who loves to chuck threes despite being 6'10", and, just like Radmanovic, he doesn't do much else. Still, I can't figure out why they didn't use him more in the playoffs, since Cook is actually very effective in his role as a shooter, and Walton was the only alternative. Sadly, Cook will probably find himself on the outside looking in again this year when it comes to playing time, especially with the addition of Radmanovic.
Center: There are two ways to think about Kwame Brown: one is to say that he's a complete and utter bust who should never have been the #1 pick in the draft, and therefore will always deserve derision and contempt (all of which is probably true). However, if you forgot about his past, Brown looked like a quality reserve last season -- he defended very well, rebounded some, and made the most of chances inside. Moreover, he wasn't hurting the Lakers with his offense, and he was actually helping them on defense (they were 2.6 pts/100 possessions better when he was on the floor than off). Of course, I said he was a quality "reserve", not "starter", and until Chris Mihm is back to full strength after a nasty ankle sprain, the latter is exactly what Brown will be. Mihm will eventually pick up the slack, though. When healthy, he's a nice role player for L.A.'s system because while he doesn't command the ball, he can still score inside off of offensive rebounds or dishes from Kobe. Defense, however, is not Mihm's strong suit. Project Andrew Bynum will also see more minutes this year, but he's years away from being a real contributor.
Outlook: Amidst 45 wins and a strong (if uneven) playoff push against Phoenix, it was easy to forget that the 2005-06 Lakers consisted of little more than Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, and a bunch of role players, all held together by Phil Jackson's zen-like coaching superpowers. The good news is that this year's version should be deeper and less reliant on Kobe, meaning that a second-place finish in the Pacific is a very reasonable goal. However, Bryant can only take this team so far, and they don't appear to have surrounded him with enough talent to sustain a deep postseason run.
3. Sacramento Kings (Projected: 41-41)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
44-38, Finished 4th in Pacific Division Scored 8106 points, Allowed 7980 points Expected W-L: 45-37 Coached by Rick Adelman (44-38) Pace Factor: 92.1 (9th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 106.6 (12th out of 30) Defense - 105.2 (13th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .513 (11th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost West Conf 1st Rd (4-2) to San Antonio Spurs
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Mike Bibby 16.5 D
SG John Salmons 12.0 C
SF Ron Artest 16.5 A
PF Shareef Abdur-Rahim 17.0 C
C Brad Miller 17.5 D
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PG2 Jason Hart 11.5 B
SG2 Kevin Martin 14.5 C
SF2 Francisco Garcia 11.5 B
PF2 Kenny Thomas 14.5 C
C2 Loren Woods 12.0 C
BN Maurice Taylor 10.5 C
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Proj. ORtg: 105.4 (19th)
Proj. DRtg: 105.3 (12th)Point Guard: Mike Bibby was able to overcome a subpar start last season to once again post solid numbers, including the best scoring output of his career to date. Bibby loves to penetrate and attack, and he stepped up his shooting in 05-06, attempting (and hitting) more 3-pointers than ever. And while his assist ratio is never really super-high, that's more a function of Sacramento's Princeton offensive scheme, which utilizes centers as playmakers in the high post to find cutters under the basket. If there's a legit complaint about Bibby's game, it's that he's not a good defender; the Kings were a significantly worse defensive team with him on the floor, and opposing PG's managed good production against him as well. Still, Bibby is a clutch shooter, a fearless leader, and one of the league's better point guards. Coming off of a great season in Charlotte, Jason Hart was signed last summer to be Bibby's backup, but he was a complete disaster for the Kings. If Hart can't return to his 04-05 form (a scenario that's looking more and more likely), either Douby or Ronnie Price could see time at the point.
Shooting Guard: Sacramento signed John Salmons to a 5-year, $25-million contract this offseason, and they plan to hand him the starting SG job, but it's hard to find reasons for either move. Salmons is versatile and has great size (especially when he plays PG), but he really isn't very good at anything. He can't get his own shot (and, hence, can't score), isn't a particularly good shooter when he does uncork one, and his size is really his only defensive asset. Most teams were pretty clear on all of these points, but Toronto and Sacramento got into a bidding war over Salmons this summer, and the Kings are stuck with a barely-replacement-level player for $5 million/year. Kevin Martin has more potential, having played fairly well last year in nearly 2,000 minutes. Martin is athletic, has some scoring ability off the dribble, and can shoot from the outside -- so frankly, if Sacramento has any sense, he'll be starting over Salmons. Rookie Quincy Douby will also see playing time, and he's a dark-horse ROY candidate because he can flat-out score, in addition to being able to handle PG duties in a pinch.
Small Forward: When sane, Ron Artest is the type of player that anyone would want on their team -- he can impact the game so much at the defensive end while simultaneously being a scoring threat on offense, and his passing and rebounding are underrated as well. But can he stay sane? It will be up to Eric Musselman to make sure that's the case, because the impact of a healthy, locked-in Artest on the Kings is undeniable: without him, Sacramento was 18-24; with him, they were 26-14, and the team shaved 6 points per game off of their defensive rating with Artest on the court. Another dynamic defender is Francisco Garcia, who makes up for a lack of bulk with his length and athleticism. Garcia's offense was not great as a rookie, though, because he couldn't shoot and was a turnover machine. Corliss Williamson is also around, but he looked finished last season in the rare instances he even made it onto the court.
Power Forward: Shareef Abdur-Rahim finally answered critics last season by playing on a playoff team, and he's a solid bet to be one of the team's most productive players again in 06-07. Still, he'll be on the wrong side of 30 this year, his rebounding has fallen off in recent years, he's not likely to shoot 53% from the floor again, and his scoring rates have fallen in each of the last two seasons. This doesn't mean that Abdur-Rahim is due for a collapse, but it does mean that nobody should be surprised if he falls apart soon. Journeymen Kenny Thomas and Maurice Taylor will provide insurance if Abdur-Rahim goes down again with an injury. Thomas is a rebounding specialist who is still a valuable player because he can be effective without demanding the ball. Taylor was always overrated -- he was never that good of a player in the first place -- but he's hit rock-bottom at this point. Maybe an escape from New York will do him good, but don't count on it.
Center: Brad Miller is just a solid player, one of the best all-around offensive centers in the game today. Miller's passing skills make him a good fit in this offense, but he's also adept at shooting jumpers out of the high post, and he will finish in the paint when given the opportunity. He doesn't rebound enough, and his defense could be better, but Miller remains one of the NBA's steadiest options at center. Loren Woods and Vitaly Potapenko will battle for minutes behind Miller, but neither is a viable alternative if Miller gets hurt.
Outlook: The Kings are just a weird team to predict right now. They were certainly solid last year (although light-years removed from their Webber-era peak), and they gave San Antonio a bit of a fight in the first round of the playoffs. But they were also inconsistent and they weren't really that great in any one area of the game. New coach Eric Musselman was a decent offensive coach during his stint in Golden State, but his chief job this year will be to manage Artest's volatile personality. This team has the potential to return to the playoffs, but they could just as easily take a big tumble in the standings, especially if Artest gets injured and/or apathetic. Only time will tell how the Kings will perform in year one under Musselman, but they may want to start rebuilding soon -- frankly, even at its best this core isn't capable of more than 45 wins, and they clearly are no longer serious contenders in the West.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (Projected: 39-43)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
47-35, Finished 2nd in NBA Pacific Division Scored 7970 points, Allowed 7841 points Expected W-L: 46-36 Coached by Mike Dunleavy (47-35) Pace Factor: 91.7 (10th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 105.6 (17th out of 30) Defense - 103.2 (7th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .522 (8th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost West Conf Semis (4-3) to Phoenix Suns Won West Conf 1st Rd (4-1) over Denver Nuggets
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Sam Cassell 16.5 D
SG Cuttino Mobley 13.5 B
SF Tim Thomas 12.5 F
PF Elton Brand 22.0 A
C Chris Kaman 15.0 D
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PG2 Shaun Livingston 12.0 C
SG2 Quinton Ross 10.5 A
SF2 Corey Maggette 18.0 C
PF2 Aaron Williams 9.0 C
C2 Zeljko Rebraca 12.5 C
BN Daniel Ewing 11.0 D
BN Lamond Murray 11.5 C
BN James Singleton 13.5 D
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Proj. ORtg: 104.2 (25th)
Proj. DRtg: 104.8 (9th)Point Guard: Picking up Sam Cassell before last season was a gamble, but it paid massive dividends for the Clips. Despite his advanced age (36), Sam I Am was an all-around offensive dynamo in 05-06, leading the L.A. offense with his masterful playmaking and shooting skills, in addition to his great locker-room presence. Moreoever, Cassell will be a bargain again this year, since the Clips re-signed him to a very reasonable 2-year, $13-million deal in July. But he is 37, and the track record for point guards at that age is shaky at best -- besides John Stockton, most guys were out of league by age 38. Even with that in mind, Cassell should still be one of L.A.'s most valuable players; just don't count on the tremendous level of production he had last season to happen again. Behind Cassell are Shaun Livingston and Daniel Ewing, both of whom were disappointing last year but still have the ability (and time) to improve. Ewing is very raw, and seriously lacks a jump shot; Livingston is further along, but he must learn to shoot as well, and he needs to be more aggressive about calling his own number.
Shooting Guard: Cuttino Mobley's pick-up wasn't nearly as successful as Cassell's, but he does provide the team with another scoring option and a great long-range shooter. Mobley is also an underrated defender, making him a decent all-around player (albeit one not worth $8 million/year through 2010). Defensive stopper Quinton Ross will once again be the backup, and his ability to shut down opponents was a big reason that L.A. was such a quality team defensively. Ross is an extremely limited offensive player, however. Ewing can and will shift over to SG as well, but all in all, this is one of the Clippers' weakest positions.
Small Forward: As predicted, Tim Thomas leveraged his great playoffs with Phoenix into a 4-year, $24-million contract with the Clippers, who apparently forgot about how badly he played during the regular season (he was nothing special even after going to the Suns), in addition to the fact that Thomas has a nice history (see the 2000 Bucks) of stepping things up in the playoffs of a contract year, only to start dogging it again the moment he has secured his wads of cash. So mark it down: he'll be an offensive disappointment this year, as well as an apathetic defender and general non-hustler. Seriously, after his career is over, Thomas should give seminars to younger players, as in, "Hoodwinking NBA Teams 101". In sharp contrast to Thomas, "backup" Corey Maggette can actually play, and hopefully he'll quickly regain his starting job. Maggette is an athletic freak, which helps him at both ends as well as the boards, but he's also a decent shooter. A lack of health is Maggette's biggest obstacle, as the back problems he's suffered for the past two years aren't likely to be going away. Yaroslav Korolev could also get some burn, although he was pitiful in limited duty last season.
Power Forward: Elton Brand was nothing short of awesome last season, and he finally got the attention that he's deserved for years (can you believe that last year was only his second All-Star invitation?). Brand is an unstoppable force down low, thanks to a bevy of post moves that range from drop-step dunks to hook shots with either hand. Brand also shoots 15-foot jumpers with good accuracy, and he's an excellent defensive player who uses his long arms to block and/or alter shots in the lane. However, it remains to be seen if his out-of-this-world production last year was an outlier (meaning he'll return to his "mere" All-Star caliber play in 06-07), or if Brand established a new standard of output that he can carry over for the next handful of years. New acquisition Aaron Williams will join James Singleton as Brand's backups. Williams is all but spent offensively, but he can rebound and defend. Singleton is an athlete who showed promising offensive upside as a rookie last year.
Center: Chris Kaman's hair may still be out of control, but in 05-06 his game finally took steps to be equally uncontrollable. Kaman is an outstanding rebounder and finisher whose back-to-the-basket game is developing nicely. He is not afraid to mix it up down low, and he has nice on-court chemistry with Brand -- the two had formed a good high-low duo as the season went on. His defense still needs work, though. Backup Zeljko Rebraca was injured and ineffective last season, but he can be a reasonable contributor when healthy.
Outlook: Under my projections, the Clippers will once again finish under .500 and out of the playoffs -- which seems counterintuitive, given L.A.'s surprise success last season. So allow me to explain: this is a team that (albeit slightly) outplayed their pythagorean projection last year. They had to tank games late to be able to face Denver, one of the only playoff teams they would have good odds of beating (if they had faced Dallas in Round 1, would anyone be this excited about the Clippers?). They're relying heavily on a 37-year-old point guard whose game could very easily fall off the face of the earth at any moment. They're counting on Brand to repeat his monster 2005-06, even though he's never played at that high a level before, and at 26 was scratching the tail end of the ages at which players can establish legitimate new levels of play. They lost Vladimir Radmanovic, who, while not great, will almost certainly be better than his replacement -- which brings us to that replacement, Tim Thomas... If they start Thomas over Maggette, it will be a grave mistake, since this offense needs all the help it can get. And don't think for a minute that Thomas is going to play all year like he did in last year's playoffs. In other words, a return trip to the playoffs for the Clippers is anything but guaranteed this year.
5. Golden State Warriors (Projected: 34-48)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
34-48, Finished 5th in Pacific Division Scored 8076 points, Allowed 8187 points Expected W-L: 37-45 Coached by Mike Montgomery (34-48) Pace Factor: 93.3 (4th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 104.8 (20th out of 30) Defense - 106.3 (17th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .483 (22nd out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Baron Davis 17.0 C
SG Jason Richardson 18.5 C
SF Mike Dunleavy 14.5 C
PF Ike Diogu 15.0 D
C Troy Murphy 15.0 D
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PG2 Keith McLeod 10.0 D
SG2 Mickael Pietrus 13.0 C
SF2 Zarko Cabarkapa 12.0 F
PF2 Andris Biedrins 15.0 C
C2 Adonal Foyle 11.0 A
BN Monta Ellis 11.0 C
BN Matt Barnes 10.5 B
BN Patrick O'Bryant 10.0 B
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Proj. ORtg: 103.6 (27th)
Proj. DRtg: 106.2 (16th)Point Guard: In many ways, Baron Davis is the NBA's most frustrating player. Despite having all the talent in the world, Davis can never stay on the floor long enough to make good use of that talent -- last year, he missed 28 games with foot problems; the year before, it was 36 games with back troubles. He has played 60 games only once in the last four years. And even when he did play last year, his production was down because of horrid shot selection; 43% of his attempts came within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and more than a third of his FGA's were threes despite his rather pedestrian 31.5% conversion rate. There's no doubt that Davis is supremely talented, but he must curb his injuries and impulses for the team to have success. Behind Davis, backup Keith McLeod is dangerously close to the replacement level, and could be passed on the depth chart at some point by the marginally more talented Anthony Roberson.
Shooting Guard: At least Jason Richardson has lived up to expectations since arriving in Golden State. Richardson has steadily improved every year since entering the NBA, and has added something new to his arsenal over just about every offseason. Last year, it was a consistent 3-point stroke; after running hot and cold from the arc over his first four seasons, Richardson hit 38.4% of his 3-point attempts last year, including a stretch in January and February in which he made more than 44% of his threes. Now Richardson is as complete a scorer as anyone in the NBA (save perhaps for Kobe Bryant), and he has the all-around talent (especially on the boards) to be an All-Star in the coming years. Mickael Pietrus and Monta Ellis will battle for the backup job. After a promising 04-05, Pietrus flopped last year and fell out of favor as the year went on. Ellis flashed some decent scoring ability and 3-point range last year, but he's still only 21 and raw. Dajuan Wagner is trying a comeback, but he wasn't any good before coming down with ulcerative colitis two years ago.
Small Forward: Mike Dunleavy was going to start here, but Don Nelson will also have him play at the 4. No matter, this is a make-or-break year for Dunleavy -- time is running out, and he's been a pretty big flop so far (especially when you consider the 5-year, $45-million extension he signed in November 2004). Sure, Dunleavy has nice finesse skills (he can shoot with unlimited range, even though his 3FG% was an ugly .285 last year, and his passing and ballhandling are good for 6'9" player), but he has never been an effective offensive player because he can't consistently get his own shot, and he can't shoot a high percentage because he's much too soft to make anything happen inside. Dunleavy will likely always have these flaws, but if any coach can make the most of his existing skill set, it's Nelson. Matt Barnes and 04-05 Small-Sample-Size All-Star Zarko Cabarkapa will also compete for minutes. Cabarkapa settled for way too many jumpers last year despite being a dreadful shooter. Barnes is a decent shooter, but he's incredibly reluctant to actually attempt shots, and he doesn't do much else.
Power Forward: Like Richardson, Ike Diogu is another of the few young Warriors with actual results to go with their talent. Diogu is an outstanding low-post scorer with a variety of shifty moves, and that alone will earn him playing time. However, the rest of his game needs polish, especially at the defensive end, where his height is a liability against bigger PF's. Still, Diogu ought to be one of Golden State's best players in 06-07, for whatever that's worth. Despite a lack of scoring ability, Andris Biedrins is another promising all-around talent whose defense is miles ahead of Diogu's. He could fit into the picture at center as well, especially with Nelson's tendency to go small.
Center: Troy Murphy is not a center, but he plays one on TV. Jokes aside, Murphy makes his money by being a fine rebounder and a strong shooter (although he doesn't really like to shoot threes, preferring to launch mid-range J's), and gets most of his points from outside of the paint. On defense, Murphy is just flat-out bad, especially against bigger opponents. To wit, the Warriors were a staggering 5.5 defensive efficiency points worse while Murphy was on the floor than off, and centers torched him particularly badly. Luckily, there's Adonal Foyle to the rescue! Foyle is a very good defensive center, and he made up for a lot of Murphy's flaws when the two shared the court. Of course, defense is literally the only thing that Foyle is good for. Rookie 7-footer Patrick O'Bryant is long and athletic, but can you say "Olowokandi II"? However he pans out, O'Bryant isn't going to contribute much this year anyway.
Outlook: Theoretically, Nellie-Ball ought to improve this offense, but, looking at the players that he has to work with, it's hard to see how he'll pull it off. Sure, Dunleavy could suddenly start being a well-rounded player, and Davis could play 82 games and never take an ill-advised shot, but neither scenario is likely. Furthermore, the team has virtually no backcourt depth if (when) Davis does go down, the young forwards are more potential than results at this point, and this defense is as broken as the offense. Can Nelson turn it around? Maybe, someday. But will it happen this year, with this group? Not too likely.
