2006-07 NBA Capsules: Northwest
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by user Davis21wylie
| 2006-07 NBA Capsules | |
| Atlantic | |
| Central | |
| Southeast | |
| Southwest | |
| Northwest | |
| Pacific | |
| The Playoffs | |
| 101 Reasons... | |
| Rookies Most Likely To... | |
Each team's capsule contains the key info about their chances in the 2006-07 season. The depth charts feature projected Player Efficiency Ratings, John Hollinger's all-in-one method of player evaluation. More info on PER is available here, but suffice to say that anything above 20.00 means you're doing very well, 15.00 is average, and anything under 10.00 means you're clinging to a spot in the league. Projections were created using Basketball-Reference's Similarity Scores. Defensive grades reflect man-to-man ability and awareness in a team context. Any other questions about the statistical methods in the preview are addressed here.
1. Denver Nuggets (Projected: 40-42)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
44-38, Finished 1st in NBA Northwest Division Scored 8227 points, Allowed 8208 points Expected W-L: 42-40 Coached by George Karl (44-38) Pace Factor: 93.9 (2nd out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 105.7 (16th out of 30) Defense - 105.0 (12th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .513 (12th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost West Conf 1st Rd (4-1) to Los Angeles Clippers
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Andre Miller 17.0 C
SG J.R. Smith 13.0 D
SF Carmelo Anthony 21.0 C
PF Kenyon Martin 15.5 B
C Marcus Camby 15.5 A
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PG2 Earl Boykins 14.5 D
SG2 Julius Hodge 10.5 C
SF2 Eduardo Najera 10.0 C
PF2 Reggie Evans 13.5 C
C2 Nenê 15.0 C
BN Anthony Carter 10.5 C
BN Linas Kleiza 13.5 D
BN Joe Smith 15.0 D
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Proj. ORtg: 105.5 (18th)
Proj. DRtg: 105.7 (14th)Point Guard: You could do a lot worse than having Andre Miller as your starting point guard. Miller is a superb passer and rebounder who loves to drive the lane, and he uses his size well on post-ups. Additionally, as a big PG he can also be an asset on defense. The one problem with Miller's game is his shooting -- he struggles on all jumpers, but particularly on shots from beyond the arc. Since he's a career 21.6% 3-point shooter, it seems like Miller's shaky J is just something that Denver will have to live with. Miniscule Earl Boykins is one of the quickest players in the NBA, and is right at home in Denver's fast-paced offensive scheme. Boykins can flat-out score and almost never turns the ball over, but his lack of height makes him a liability on defense and the boards. Still, he's the ideal off-the-bench player because he provides a jolt of speed and energy, and he can heat up in a hurry.
Shooting Guard: J.R. Smith was plucked from the Hornets over the summer with Denver's every intention of making him the starting SG, but he still has a ways to go to become a starting-caliber player. Smith is highly athletic, but his offensive development stalled last season because of his tendency to shoot a bunch of low-percentage mid-range jumpers. If he attacks the rim more, he could improve on that poor .393 FG%, which would go a long way toward boosting his overall production. Smith is also a questionable defender, but Karl seems to feel that his athleticism will help him make strides at that end. DerMarr Johnson re-upped with the Nuggets, and he's another athlete that has some scoring ability (and, unlike Smith, he can also shoot reasonably well). Former Euroleaguer Yakhouba Diawara and gunshot victim Julius Hodge will also be in the picture, with the former having the best chance to grab some minutes off of the bench.
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony made a quantum leap last season, raising his scoring to downright superhuman levels (28.9 pts/40 min) while improving his shooting stroke and ballhandling. His rebounding and defense still need work, but 'Melo is clearly one of the top SF's in the league, and he shouldn't get snubbed again at the 2007 All-Star Game. Backup Eduardo Najera is a hustling rebounder who has been limited by injuries in recent years. Linas Kleiza, last year's top draft choice, has a diverse skill set and showed some real promise as a rookie.
Power Forward: Here's a big surprise: Kenyon Martin was an expensive, oft-injured malcontent last season. The real surprise is the fact that he's still on Denver's roster, although that's due mostly to the fact that no other team (not even New York) was willing/able to take on his massive contract. Assuming that Martin is healthy this season, he should once again be a multi-dimensional weapon that can impact the game at both ends. But can he mend his relationships with Karl and his teammates? Reggie Evans, another borderline nutjob (pun absolutely intended), will be the backup, and he's an awesome rebounder that doesn't do anything else. Pending health, recently-acquired Joe Smith could move past Evans on the depth chart, since Smith still has decent offensive value.
Center: Brittle Marcus Camby once again missed more than 20 games, but he was tremendous at both ends when he actually did play. When healthy, Camby is a brilliant rebounder and shot-blocker who can score inside and even pass a little, but he's a mortal lock to miss a quarter of the schedule with a variety of injuries. But just like Andre Miller's poor shooting, Camby's frailness is just something that Denver has learned to live with. Nenê's injury, on the other hand, is something that Denver won't accept again, especially after inking him to an unbelievably bloated 6-year, $60-million extension this summer. Nenê is a solid player, for sure, but that contract is simply insane. At any rate, look for Nenê to run the floor hard and provide some decent energy, post scoring, and rebounding. Underrated big man Jamal Sampson could also get some playing time if (when) Camby goes down.
Outlook: Denver will almost certainly win this division, if not by default, but that fact will likely mask the number of very serious issues they still have: the offense is weak and revolves almost exclusively around Anthony; they don't have a viable shooting guard; the defense is mediocre and suffers mightily when Camby's inevitable injuries come; and the team has no chemistry, thanks to Anthony's high-volume shooting and Martin's constant bitching about Karl (check that -- thanks to Martin's entire personality). They'll make the playoffs, but this is an inconsistent, disjointed team that isn't really capable of anything more than a first-round exit.
2. Utah Jazz (Projected: 37-45)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
41-41, Finished 2nd in NBA Northwest Division Scored 7573 points, Allowed 7789 points Expected W-L: 33-49 Coached by Jerry Sloan (41-41) Pace Factor: 88.0 (26th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 104.0 (23rd out of 30) Defense - 107.1 (21st out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .502 (13th out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Deron Williams 14.5 D
SG Gordan Giricek 11.5 C
SF Andrei Kirilenko 21.0 A
PF Carlos Boozer 19.0 F
C Mehmet Okur 18.0 D
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PG2 Derek Fisher 13.5 B
SG2 Ronnie Brewer 15.0 C
SF2 Matt Harpring 16.0 D
PF2 Paul Millsap 12.0 D
C2 Jarron Collins 11.5 A
BN Dee Brown 10.0 C
BN Rafael Araujo 6.5 D
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Proj. ORtg: 105.6 (16th)
Proj. DRtg: 106.8 (23rd)Point Guard: By Chris Paul standards, Deron Williams had a pretty pedestrian rookie season... Fair or not, Williams will always be compared to the man taken right after him in the 2005 draft, and he'll probably always come up short, since Paul is a once-in-a-lifetime type of player. But that doesn't mean that Williams can't become a good PG in his own right someday; after all, he improved steadily throughout his rookie season, culminating with a March/April performance that was very respectable. His defense should get better with experience, so to be an effective player Williams simply needs to get better about finishing his drives, and he needs to stop taking long 2-point jumpers. Derek Fisher was brought in as much to mentor Williams as for his own play, but he's still a solid defensive PG and a deadly 3-point marksman. Rookie Dee Brown could get a look, but he's a tweener who really needs to recapture the magic of his junior year at Illinois.
Shooting Guard: Apparently Sloan is willing to go with known mediocrity Gordan Giricek until Brewer is ready. Giricek is a big guard and could be a quality reserve if he bounces back from his nightmarish play last season, but he really needs to stop shooting so much. Seriously. Backup Ronnie Brewer could fare a lot better, and he'll be given every chance to supplant Giricek as starter. Brewer is versatile, athletic, defensively skilled, and could be a breakout candidate if he rediscovers the outside shooting ability he showed as a sophomore (not a given, considering his bizarre shooting form). Brown could also fit in here, since he has more of a SG's mentality anyway.
Small Forward: Andrei Kirilenko is probably the best two-way wing player in the NBA, but he needs to stay healthy to make a big impact on Utah's season. Kirilenko boasts incredible athleticism, so he's a natural defender that can reject shots and pull down rebounds with ease. He's also an underrated offensive player even though his jumper is lacking, because he can drive past just about anyone en route to a thunderous dunk. But his no-holds-barred style probably encourages injuries, the kinds of which have cost him 54 games over the last two years. As Utah's MVP, he needs to be on the floor for the team to be successful. Matt Harpring is another seriously injury-prone player, but when healthy he is an impressive scorer. C.J. Miles, Utah's second-rounder from a year ago, flashed a lot of potential as a rookie, seeing as how he was only a year removed from playing high school ball.
Power Forward: Carlos Boozer is yet another Utah player with durability concerns, having missed 49 games last year with a hamstring injury, after missing 31 games the year before with foot problems. When he actually plays, Boozer is an all-around offensive machine who can score in bunches around the basket and rebound. He's a brutal defender, though, which won't help an already-poor Utah defense. Rook Paul Millsap is undersized but a fantastic rebounder nonetheless.
Center: Unlike Boozer, Mehmet Okur has actually been worth the big contract he signed with Utah in the summer of 2004. Okur is a well-rounded offensive threat who can score around the basket but prefers to take -- and make -- jumpers from all over the floor. His ability to step out and shoot would be a perfect compliment to the inside games of Boozer and Kirilenko, if the three could ever be on the floor at the same time. Like Boozer, Okur is defensively challenged. Jarron Collins, on the other hand, is decidedly not defensively challenged -- it's the rest of the game that he is worthless in. Speaking of worthless, Utah traded for Rafael Araujo over the summer, and they'll find out soon enough that Araujo should never have played a single minute in the NBA.
Outlook: Utah is an interesting team. Like New Orleans, they seriously outplayed their pythagorean projection last season, meaning that they're almost guaranteed to decline in 06-07... But they were also missing two of their three best players for huge chunks of time last year. So who are the real Utah Jazz: a 41-win team on the cusp of the playoffs, or a 33-win team with a number of flaws, particularly on defense? The answer, assuming Boozer/Kirilenko health, lies somewhere in between. But the development of Williams into a legit PG could go a long way toward making the playoffs more than a mere pipe dream.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (Projected: 35-47)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
33-49, Finished 4th in Northwest Division Scored 7522 points, Allowed 7676 points Expected W-L: 35-47 Coached by Dwane Casey (33-49) Pace Factor: 88.8 (22nd out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 102.2 (28th out of 30) Defense - 104.7 (11th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .478 (24th out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Mike James 17.5 D
SG Rashad McCants 15.0 C
SF Ricky Davis 15.5 C
PF Kevin Garnett 25.0 A
C Mark Blount 13.5 C
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PG2 Randy Foye 13.0 C
SG2 Bracey Wright 12.5 D
SF2 Trenton Hassell 10.5 B
PF2 Craig Smith 9.0 D
C2 Eddie Griffin 12.5 C
BN Marko Jaric 13.0 B
BN Troy Hudson 13.0 C
BN Justin Reed 10.0 C
BN Mark Madsen 7.0 B
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Proj. ORtg: 103.0 (28th)
Proj. DRtg: 105.1 (11th)Point Guard: Ever since Sam Cassell departed two years ago, the T-Wolves' point guards have been woefully unproductive, culminating with last year's subpar Marko Jaric/Marcus Banks/Troy Hudson trio. Fortunately, Minnesota added Mike James and Randy Foye over the summer, and the new faces should make a big impact on Minny's PG productivity. James is coming off a tremendous year in Toronto, and he's a very gifted offensive player who should be able to take a lot of scoring pressure off of Garnett. Foye is another top-flight scoring point, and he answered questions about his shaky college shooting numbers by playing extremely well in the summer league. Neither player is a traditional pass-first point, though, so Jaric and Hudson are also back. Both are solid bench players who can defend (epsecially Jaric) and pass better than James and Foye. All in all, the summer moves took a position that was a weakness, and made it a strength.
Shooting Guard: Based on his top comps and the way he progressed throughout his rookie year (especially as a 3-point shooter), Rashad McCants looked primed to have a breakout season in 2006-07. However, McCants suffered a knee injury late in the season and had the dreaded microfracture surgery in June -- a development that will keep him sidelined until at least January, if not the entire season. In McCants' absence, Trenton Hassell could start; Hassell is a defensive whiz, but he lacks ability when it comes to all things offense. Foye and/or James will also shift over to the 2 at times, and Foye may actually have the inside track over everyone at the starting SG slot, since he's a combo guard who will relentlessly attack the basket. Second-year man Bracey Wright could also figure into the picture; he's an outstanding shooter who lacks size.
Small Forward: Despite being a natural 2-guard, Ricky Davis, who came over from Boston in a midseason trade last year, will be the starter here. Davis is a devastating (if one-dimensional) scorer who does his best work inside the arc, whether on slashing drives or a surprisingly effective mid-range game. His size and athleticism could make him a solid defender as well, but he's always underachieved at that end, to the point that McHale even called him out about his defense last season. If Foye does end up starting at SG, Hassell will shift over to be the backup SF, a position he might be more comfortable at anyway. Also in the mix is Justin Reed, another pickup in the Boston trade last season. Reed followed a decent rookie showing with a disappointing second year, although he did pick things up a bit after arriving in Minnesota.
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett is one of the 5 best players in the league, without a doubt. He's also one of the league's most underappreciated superstars, as seemingly every myopic sportswriter in the country continues to blame him for the Timberwolves' lack of success over the past two years, despite the fact that he has played at an unmatched level of ability and intensity over that time period. Suffice it to say that KG is as complete a player as there has ever been in NBA history (the only thing his game lacks is 3-point range), and when it's all said and done he will go down as one of the very best players ever to play the game. And while he turned 30 last May, don't expect Garnett's truly remarkable level of productivity to decline, at least not in 2006-07. Rookie Craig Smith will be the backup, and he's a tough player who can pass and rebound, but a lack of size (he's only 6'7") could hamper his career. Notorious energy guy Mark Madsen and notorious non-energy guy Vin Baker are also on the bench.
Center: Because he's an okay-ish all-around player, Mark Blount is a viable starting center... which probably speaks more to the dearth of quality centers out there than to Blount's merits. At any rate, Blount is a pretty good scorer out of the high post, which affords Garnett the freedom to post up if he wants. Eddie Griffin is another reasonably solid option, assuming he can avoid any more incredibly bizarre off-court incidents. Neither guy is a low-post bruiser, but Griffin can rebound and block shots with the best of them.
Outlook: Garnett is nearing the end of his peak, and time is running out for McHale to surround him with the types of teammates that he deserves. Acquiring James and Foye was a step in the right direction, seeing as how the T-Wolves' problems were mostly on offense, but Minnesota's rebounding is still a mess, and after McCants' injury they don't have enough legit shooting threats to take the pressure off of Garnett. The playoffs are certainly possible, but it looks like McHale has once again surrounded Garnett with too many mediocre players.
4. Seattle SuperSonics (Projected: 30-52)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
35-47, Finished 3rd in NBA Northwest Division Scored 8411 points, Allowed 8659 points Expected W-L: 33-49 Coached by Bob Weiss (13-17), and Bob Hill (22-30) Pace Factor: 91.6 (11th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 111.0 (3rd out of 30) Defense - 114.4 (30th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .484 (21st out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Luke Ridnour 15.0 F
SG Ray Allen 20.0 D
SF Rashard Lewis 18.0 D
PF Chris Wilcox 15.5 C
C Robert Swift 12.0 D
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PG2 Earl Watson 13.5 A
SG2 Damien Wilkins 12.5 C
SF2 Mickael Gelabale 8.5 C
PF2 Nick Collison 14.0 C
C2 Johan Petro 12.5 F
BN Milt Palacio 11.5 B
BN Kareem Rush 11.5 D
BN Danny Fortson 12.5 D
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Proj. ORtg: 106.9 (12th)
Proj. DRtg: 111.0 (30th)Point Guard: Luke Ridnour has given the Sonics their best point guard since Gary Payton left town in 2003... on offense, at least. Ridnour is a great passer and ballhandler, and despite an inconsistent outside stroke, he's an effective offensive player because he can out-quick his man off the dribble and/or uncork a decent mid-range J. Defensively, he's terrible at everything but swiping the ball away for steals because he's rail-thin and can easily be outmuscled by bigger guards. Backup Earl Watson is an underrated player who can really shoot and defend, plus run an offense. Between Ridnour and Watson, Seattle has one of the best PG contingents in the NBA.
Shooting Guard: Ray Allen quietly enjoyed what was perhaps the best season of his career in 2006, a detail made even more impressive by the fact that he had just signed a max extension the summer before. Allen's chief skill is his 3-point shooting ability, but he can also hit jumpers inside the arc, as well as drive enough to draw fouls (he averages about 5 FTA's per game, which isn't bad considering the fact that 85% of his shots were jumpers and 44% were threes). His defense, which was never very good, has regressed mightily in recent seasons, to the point that he was one of the worst defensive guards in the NBA last season. Backup Damien Wilkins has more potential on D because of his length and athleticism, but he's a solid offensive player as well because of his ability to get to the basket. Kareem Rush is a 3-point specialist that can score a little, but he's terribly inefficient.
Small Forward: Ironically, Rashard Lewis didn't return to the All-Star Game in 2006, even though he played just as well as he had the year before (if not even better). Despite his 6'10" frame, Lewis is a tremendous shooter with range, and a solid ballhandler and scorer to boot. He was also more assertive about going to the basket than ever before -- he averaged 5.5 FTA's per game last season. But his second-half collapse is troubling, as is his ongoing lack of defensive presence. Since he will likely opt out of his contract after the season, it will be interesting to see if Lewis brings a new intensity to his game with the incentive of more cash looming. It will also be interesting to see if Lewis is still wearing a Seattle uniform after the trade deadline. Mickael Gelabale played in Spain last year after being drafted in 2005, and he's still incredibly raw. At 6'7", though, he could be an asset to Seattle's woeful defense.
Power Forward: Chris Wilcox really shined in Seattle last year after coming over in a trade with the Clippers. Wilcox is a rebounding force who loves to get out on the break and dunk, and he has the ability to get his points despite lacking a polished offensive arsenal. He's a mixed bag on defense, which automatically makes him better than just about all of his Seattle teammates, but you'd think his athleticism could get him more than just 1 block/40 minutes. Nick Collison is another solid rebounder with some all-around game and finishing ability, but he needs to look for his shot more, and he must get more consistent at both ends.
Center: This is potentially Seattle's deepest position, but it is also by far its least-experienced. Robert Swift started some last year, and he's a good rebounder and shot-blocker; hopefully his offense will develop in time (he'll only be 21 this season). Johan Petro is merely an average rebounder, and he's even less prepared than Swift on both offense and defense. He, too, is only 21, though, and he's got more athletic upside than Swift. Rebounding machine Danny Fortson is still on this roster, but he was injured and ineffective last season, and his fouling has gotten completely out of control (he committed an astonishing 11 personal fouls/40 minutes last year, and had 10 the year before). Given the uncertainty surrounding the players in front of him, rookie Saer Sene could also get into some games, especially after playing better than anyone expected in the summer league. Sene's length and athleticism could be a boon to Seattle's awful defense.
Outlook: In the Big Three of Allen, Lewis, and Ridnour, Seattle can compete with anyone -- offensively, at least. If he retains his post-trade form, Wilcox could also contribute to one of the best offenses in basketball. But the Sonics' real troubles are on defense; they were dead last in defensive efficiency last season, finishing almost 2 full points/possession worse than the second-worst team (Portland). And virtually nothing was done over the offseason to correct this problem, meaning that unless one of the project centers suddenly channels Alonzo Mourning, Seattle will continue to be a poor team. Not only that, but my projections see the offense declining this season. And they're in the midst of a franchise crisis that could see the team land in Oklahoma City by this time next year. In other words, the Sonics are still a disaster area, and it's not getting any prettier.
5. Portland Trail Blazers (Projected: 22-60)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
21-61, Finished 5th in Northwest Division Scored 7285 points, Allowed 8060 points Expected W-L: 16-66 Coached by Nate McMillan (21-61) Pace Factor: 87.6 (28th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 100.3 (30th out of 30) Defense - 112.8 (29th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .444 (29th out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Jarrett Jack 13.5 C
SG Brandon Roy 17.0 C
SF Darius Miles 15.0 C
PF Zach Randolph 17.5 D
C Joel Przybilla 15.0 B
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PG2 Sergio Rodriguez 11.0 D
SG2 Martell Webster 13.5 D
SF2 Travis Outlaw 14.5 D
PF2 LaMarcus Aldridge 11.5 C
C2 Jamaal Magloire 13.5 C
BN Juan Dixon 14.0 D
BN Dan Dickau 12.5 D
BN Raef LaFrentz 12.0 F
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Proj. ORtg: 102.8 (29th)
Proj. DRtg: 110.5 (29th)Point Guard: With the trading away of Sebastian Telfair, the Blazers offense officially belongs to Jarrett Jack (who I sat next to in a history class two years ago, but I digress). This was probably the correct decision, as he was far more efficient than Telfair even as a rookie, and he seems just as capable at running an offense. He is also a better shooter than Telfair, can get into the lane just as easily, he's bigger and stronger, and he's a better defender. If Jack doesn't work out as planned, rookie Sergio Rodriguez could see some action; he's got great passing and court vision, but he's too careless with the ball, and he definitely needs seasoning. After bouncing around to three other cities, Dan Dickau is back in Portland for a second tour of duty. He's definitely hoping he can rekindle the form he showed in 67 games for New Orleans two years ago, but that's probably not happening, especially after the achilles injury that ended his stint in Boston.
Shooting Guard: Can we just start spelling Brandon Roy's last name in all caps? As in Rookie Of the Year? Roy is the most NBA-ready of all the players drafted this past June, and his versatile all-around game will definitely give Portland a boost at both ends, while simultaneously providing them with more options than they had a year ago. He can score, pass, and defend, and will probably be the most dependable rookie in the Class of 2006... Give him the ROY award! Martell Webster and Juan Dixon, both of whom started at various times last season, will also see minutes here in 06-07. As a rookie, Webster was as raw as advertised, but still he showed some scoring ability, and his shooting was actually surprisingly good. I think he'll take a big step forward in Year 2, and he could turn into a very solid player someday. Dixon is already a pretty solid player, at least when it comes to scoring and ballhandling. They would probably like him to shift over to the point, but he doesn't seem to have the passing ability to stick there -- which is a shame, because Roy's arrival will definitely cut into Dixon's playing time.
Small Forward: Clubhouse cancer Darius Miles was shopped right and left all season long (and all offseason long, for that matter), but once again there were no takers. Miles' selfish personality was at least tolerable when he was a reasonably productive player, but his game fell off the face of the earth last season -- most notably his jumper, but his passing and ballhandling were conspicuously absent as well. Don't worry, though, Miles kept shooting as much as ever, despite his increasing lack of accuracy. Basically, the best the Blazers can hope for is that Miles rebounds to the form that he showed when he first came to Portland, because even Isiah Thomas wouldn't touch his combination of a hefty contract (4 years and $36 million remaining) and a gallingly uncoachable "me-first" attitude. Travis Outlaw's shot deserted him last season as well, but he seemed to have worked his problems out as the season went on, and should be a good bet to return to his 2005 levels of production. Webster could also see some time here, as could D-Leaguer/journeyman Ime Udoka.
Power Forward: Speaking of clubhouse cancers, Zach Randolph is slated to be Portland's starting PF despite his trade demands and constant clashes with McMillan. Like Miles, Randolph's big contract and bad attitude probably renders him untradable, but unlike Miles, Randolph is at least still a good player. Knee injuries have forced him to set up camp away from the basket more than ever before, but he hopes to finally be over the microfracture surgery he underwent in the spring of 2005. If he is back to his old self, Randolph will be a force that can score inside and rebound. If not, though, he'll be just another overpaid player sulking on Portland's bench. Why? Because of top draftee LaMarcus Aldridge, a rangy athlete who will contribute on defense right away. Aldridge's offense is not as well-developed as his D right now, but he was adept at converting on his opportunities in college, and he hits the offensive boards hard. LaFrentz might work his way in at PF as well, since it will be hard for him to get minutes at center behind Przybilla and Magloire.
Center: Who would have thought two years ago that Joel Przybilla would ever be a quality NBA center? I don't know, but Przybilla followed up a breakout 2004-05 with an almost identical effort in 05-06. Przybilla is a good finisher inside and a rock-solid rebounder, and while he has no offensive game outside of the paint, he no longer hurts the team with his offense. He's also a strong defender who loves to swat shots away, and he seems to have gotten his foul problems under control. Jamaal Magloire is another terrific rebounder, and he theoretically has more offensive skill than Przybilla, but the finger injury he suffered two years ago has killed his ability to finish plays. Still, he's also a decent defender who tries hard at that end -- something that should be welcomed by Portland fans and coaches alike. Raef LaFrentz was another offseason pick-up, but it looked like he had a giant fork sticking out of him last season in Boston. At least he can still stretch defenses with his ability to step out and knock down shots.
Outlook: With the draft-day moves they made, Portland at least seems to finally be headed in the right direction. There is talent here -- namely Randolph and Miles -- but their potential hasn't been realized in a while. If those two are happy and healthy, Portland could win 30 games, but the team needs defense just as badly as they need offense, and even at 100% those two don't add much at that end. While it's easy to get excited about Roy and Aldridge's potential, this is still probably the worst team in the NBA, and even if management does everything right, it will be a number of years before the young talent pays dividends.
