"Fantasy Baseball: Playoff Preparations"
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by Statistocrat
As Major League teams expand their rosters in preparation for the MLB post-season, so too should you be adjusting your rosters for your fantasy baseball playoffs.
For those of you who are on the brink of making it into your fantasy baseball playoffs or have all ready received the asterick next to your team name that guarantees you a spot in the hunt for a trophy (either on your profile or the real deal), it is important that you approach your lineup with a purpose.
There are three typical styles of fantasy sports rolling around the world wide web, points based, head to head, and "#" X "#" leagues; therefore, there are three different approaches, all consisting of due diligence with your team, your homework on their historical data during the month of September, the scouring of your free agents/waiver wire, and the teams standings in relation to their "hunt for October".
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WHAT TO DO: '
Review Your "Bat Bench": Here is what I believe is the best approach, especially if you squeaked into the playoffs and maybe your lineup isn't "all that".
BATS: Review the statistics for each player, looking for those who are a little over the hill and see if there has been any decline in their statistics (most likely a gradual one due to wear 'n tear). People like Mike Lowell,Jeff Kent, and Gary Sheffield (Oops!!!). These players are great regular season players, but if you see signs of slowing, go with a younger guy. This is also true of younger guys, using Kevin Youkalis as an example, overworked, tired, and showing it at the plate.
If you have a player that is young, mid-season call-up or a late surge, really look at the game by game production. Is he a monster one day, five days off, or a more of a consistent bat? {Go with consistency over monster days] And example may be someone like a Hunter Pence-HOU & Chris Young-ARI (monster days) vs. Jack Cust & Curtis Granderson.
Don't get hooked on "names". There are too many teams holding on to "names" such Andruw Jones & Travis Hafner because of their name and not their production. Too often, the feeling is that you don't want it to bite you in the butt and have them breakout or simply not have to listen to the ridicule for letting a player like that go. Don't fall prey to the "name", instead fall in love with their play. There are plenty of leagues where Carlos Pena is still available, yet Jason Giambi and Paul Konerko, even Travis Hafner are on rosters that are doing nothing but taking up "bench space" and making the team "look good".
The key to a successful fantasy playoff team, when it comes to bats is this, .OBP, .SLG, .AVG, where they are in the line-up {are they being protected by a big bat? are they in position to land a lot of runs? is their team hitting well enough that getting steals is higher/are they getting on base to get steals at all?}.
As is always, it is imperative that you review two things when deciding "should they stay or should they go"? First, is their team in contention for at least a wild card [Less call-ups for experience and players/managers/organizations laying down for draft position, next years roster outlook, etc...] and even more importantly, what is their September statistics historically. So often we use the "last week" and "last month" statistical reviews to decide our lineups for the day, week, and free agent pick-ups. This is all well and good until you reach the playoffs. Then it only matters whether they are in the hunt and what they do during that time period in years past.
If you are still deadlocked on whether to pick-up/drop a player for a free agent, it is good to glance at their remaining schedule. If you know anything about fantasy baseball, someone can name a team and you can tell what quality pitchers are on their roster and whether there is a solid, mediocre, or poor bullpen at the end of their roster.
Review Your Pitching, Build Your Bench: Here is where most people fail to advance in the playoffs. Like the MLB, pitching will often decide the outcome of a fantasy playoffs. Here are things you need to consider if you truly want to prevail as the World Series Champion of your league.
First, you must make an honest assessment of each one of your arms to determine if they have a prosperous September ahead of them, or if they are going to be the bane in your fantasy existence. You must start with this... How does their team rank when it comes to run support across the league and in their particular division. Then see if he is one of the pitchers benefiting from it. I call this the "Pedro Martinez" Syndrome. For years he would get no run support in Boston, allowing 1,2, or 3 runs and getting a no-decision or a loss because the bats fell asleep while he was pitching while the "Tim Wakefields" of the world would get 6 - 7 runs a game.
The next is the "age" factor... If over 32, look at their last 10 starts. Have the declined in innings pitched (not necessarily pitch count, but look at that too). Often times, pitchers become wore out...they may throw as many pitches each game, but the quality can be seen in the innings pitched. If they are losing ground, you may want to consider seeking the free agent market or elect to keep someone who is younger and on the rise. The "playoff" factor plays a part in every pitcher's future as it is imperative that the manager is supplying him with potential to log wins and/or saves.
You must look at the teams remaining games. Are they consistently going to face quality pitching rotations (Padres, Red Sox), murderer rows (Yankees, Angels) and consistency of their bullpen. There are often fairly good pitching sitting in free agency.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
I am a firm believer, especially if you are in a 4 X 4, 5 X 5 type league, that you minimize your bench done to one, possibly two players on the bench and load up on pitchers...grab the guys who have at least 12 wins and has an E.R.A under 4 and pick them up in place of those guys you have on "bat bench"... If you can secure Innings pitched, Wins, Saves, and Strike-outs, there is a chance for you to grab the ERA & WHIP, plus, teams who make the playoffs can typically grab 2 out of 3 offensive categories, (runs & steals usually are the least grabbed by weaker teams). Yet, you can guarantee at least 6 of 10 stats...you tie 1 or 2 and you advance.
Double starts for pitchers usually increases the point vs. point and head to head competitions. As well, the close games (playoff contenders) usually generate the most save opportunities due to close games. Therefore, I always build up my arms and limit my bats.
I believe that you get your starting bats setup and leave'em be, keeping just enough to deal with playoff injuries (most leagues do not allow drops/pick-ups during playoffs). I recommend a IF/OF player (Mike Cuddyer, Nick Swisher, B.J. Upton, etc...) and a middle infielder with multiple options (Freddie Sanchez, Ryan Theriot, Aaron Hill).
I hope that some of this advice helps and that you have a successful playoff campaign.
Statistocrat
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